UK local elections, May 2012

[Peter]

Oxford 2012 (half council up)

Incumbent map below.

Present seats (seats up)

Labour 26 (13)
Lib Dem 16 (7)
Green 5 (3)
IWCA 1 (1)



This is the first election in Oxford since the coalition government came into being. The IWCA seems to have disbanded and are not contesting their seat - expect a Labour gain there.

The Lib Dem student wards are potentially quite vulnerable: The Headington ward (the LD ward on its own) is the Oxford Brookes ward - its probably most vulnerable to Labour.

The two most southerly wards in the centre, Carfax & Holywell, will be vulnerable to the Greens.

Most of the Labour wards should be safe, though I haven't been following the fickle Cowley road politics which historically have involved key groups swinging basically wholesale between the LDs and Labour.

[Peter]

Ward name map

Of the four remaining wards to the NW, Wolvercote (the most northerly) is the most vulnerable on paper. To the Tories. Which could actually happen if there is a mini-collapse in the LD vote and the Tory vote holds.

The two directly below that, Summertown and St Margarets, will never fall. If anything, the LD voters of those wards are the most likely in Oxford to support coalition policies.

The final ward, North, just above the Carfax-Holywell pairing, looks quite safe on paper, however, Sushilla Dhall is contesting it for the Greens. She's a pretty big hitter for the LDs locally: she was Councillor for Carfax ward; she polled very well in this ward back in 2004; and contested a general election in Oxford in 2010. She'll be coming from a low base of 14%, but there's a good number of students in that ward, so its possible.

[Peter]

As somewhat predicted, a bit of a bad night for the LDs. Labour overwhelming winners both in terms of seats and votes. Greens polled second overall, and in a great number of wards.

New Council
Labour 29 (+3); LD 13 (-3); Green 5 (-); Independent 1

Lab gain 2 from LD
Lab gain 1 from IWCA
Lab gain 1 from Green
Green gain 1 from LD
Ind gain 1 from Lab

Carfax has gone Labour! Carfax. This is a very studenty ward, and in my time at Oxford, was very anti-Labour (an anti-govt time of course - I was a student in the immediate aftermath of Iraq invasion, top-up fees, etc.). The Lib Dems clearly threw everything at retaining Headington & the NW wards - there was a total collapse along the Cowley Road wards and amongst any C1/2 worker population in the NE of Oxford.

[Peter]

what particular variety is the independent cllr?

Community campaigner, working class, thoroughly deserving of the post. Nominally labour-ish, but thoroughly rooted by a moral compass - he's the sort that'll do what he thinks is right even if it damns him in an election.

[Peter]

Oxford vote shares by ward



Interesting to look at the comparisons over the past 6 years:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Newprogressive/Oxfordmaps

A complete LD retreat into its core wards , and a general expansion of the Labour/Green vote (2010 is an exception for the Greens as the general election affects local voting intentions).

Also Carfax ward has now been represented by a councillor for all 4 parties over the last few years:

Labour (2012 -)
Lib Dem (2002-2007; 2008-2012; 2010 - )
Green (2002-2010)
Conservative (2007-2008), though only due to defection