UK local elections, May 2012

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Cardiff could well produce one of its trademark hilarious results.

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Results from 2008 are on the site of Our Man in Bolton. As you can see, the exact method of calculating results in multi-member wards makes quite a difference in Cardiff.

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I'm so stealing that outline for when I do the 2012 version of my all Wales 2008 map.

Gray is a postponed election (a candidate died, I suppose.).

Yeah, that's the rule.

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Officially, yeah. There have been two recent parliamentary ones; the first for decades. South Staffs and Thirsk & Malton, but you know that.

Yeah, that's right as well. Not something that happens in parliamentary elections, but there's usually a case or two every year at local government level.

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Major corruption scandal has just blown up in Bury. One of the councillors arrested led the council until last May's elections.

Bribes, I note. Old school.

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Labour held their campaign launch today in Birmingham btw.

It's the obvious place.

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Nominations out in Gwynedd, and it looks as though Plaid are making a big push against Llais. Of course we knew that anyway, so this is just confirmation. But that's where the action is up here.  Also looks likely to be several interesting contests in Bangor and maybe one or two elsewhere (hard to tell, though Seiont ward in Caernarfon will be as bizarre as always; but then that can now be filed in the Llais Drama category).

Loads of unopposed returns, including the ward I live in.

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SOPN is out for Bradford. Respect (George Galloway)* have not managed to find candidates for every ward in the Met District or even the City proper. Which is not a surprise. What is a little bit of a surprise is the lack of a Respect (George Galloway) candidate in Toller.

In non dancing cat related news, the Labour candidate in eternally Tory Ilkley is none other than Ann Cryer.

*For that is how they shall appear on the ballot.

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...and confirmation that the attention of Respect has shifted elsewhere has come with the news that there will be no Respect candidate in Sparkbrook.

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Yaqoob was actually born in Bradford so don't be surprised if she runs for something there at some point if she's well enough.

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Unopposed returns in Wales:



Lighter colour means a guaranteed seat. Very dark grey means no election. The very pretty base map blatantly stolen from Andrew Teale because its much prettier than the one I made years back.

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The Island will have its local elections next year, yeah.

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So, then. A few cursory predictions, of sorts? Why ever not. I never get very far with this sort of thing, but the general plan is to do all of Wales, and then go through England starting in the North East. Scotland would be last (and so not done at all, probably) because of STV and my inability to count to three.

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Isle of Anglesey (Ynys Môn)

There are no elections on Anglesey as its councillors have been naughty. Call back this time next year, probably.

Gwynedd

Current Composition: Plaid 38, Independent 21, Llais Gwynedd 9, Labour 4, LDem 3. Or something like that; it can be hard to keep up with things. Just for the record, the figures after the 2008 elections were Plaid 35, Independent 18, Llais Gwynedd 12, LDem 5, Labour 4.

Current Administration: Plaid regained their lost majority via defections and by-elections, but the council is still run according to a very strange committee model. This will not be the case after May when the council switches to the (now) usual Leader and Cabinet structure.

Prediction: Almost certain to be a Plaid majority, unless something goes serious wrong under the surface. Making further predictions more detailed than that would be an error because local elections in Gwynedd can be quite strange and don't always follow wider patterns, but its clear that the main contest is between Plaid and Llais, with Plaid aiming avenge 2008 and to come as close to wiping out Llais as is possible. There are also a couple of spectacularly unpredictable contests in Bangor.

Conwy

Current Composition: Con 18, Ind 15, Plaid 14, Labour 7, LDem 5

Current Administration: A coalition made up of all groups but the Tories.

Prediction: Most likely another hung council with the Tories as the largest party. They have underperformed badly here in local elections for a long time (there are quite a few affluent coastal wards that 'ought' to have Tory councillors but don't), but recent Westminster and Assembly elections have been quite encouraging. Significant gains against the grain (possibly taking them to a narrow majority) are not that likely, but can't be ruled out.

Denbighshire

Current Composition: Con 18, Independent 15, Plaid 8, Labour 6

Current Administration: an All Party coalition, apparently.

Prediction: It's fairly obvious that no party will win a majority. Beyond that, Labour will be looking to make significant gains in and around Rhyl and ought to do so.

More whenever.

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No elections here until 2015.

me neither, county council next year though, and all the fun of the police and crime commissioner elections in november

Argh, don't remind me!

*nosuchthingaselectedpolicecommissionersnosuchthingaselectedpolicecommissionersnosuchthingasel
ectedpolicecommissioners*

Talking of which, I got a leaflet/letter from Tal Michael today: his effort to get the Labour nomination here seems to be pretty organised.

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Is a total yellow meltdown possible, or are some wards just too safe for even an outside chance of that?

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For some reason YouGov have done a local elections poll of Wales:

Labour 48%, Tories 17%, Independents 15%, Plaid 14%, LibDems 17%

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No election in Felin and not much sign of one in Caernarfon. But more election activity in Bangor than I've ever seen before. There are some very interesting contests in that little city today, not that it makes any sense to make predictions because local politics in this little corner of the world is what it is.

Parochial folly aside, most local authorities in Wales could see a change in administration tonight/tomorrow, and that's including the two big cities.  Unless something very odd happens Labour will win a majority in Swansea and probably quite a large one. Cardiff is less predictable, but it might produce another of its trademark hilarious results (we shall see).

Elsewhere, the big prize up tonight is Brum.

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Rugby is an odd town. Any predictions for there?

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One issue is that the media have a bit of a deluded idea as to what swing areas are actually like and which areas are actually swing areas...

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Edit: and here are the figures: Barnes: Rebecca Atkinson (Lab) 2041; Gouilnara Dixon (Lib) 150; Tony Morrissey (Sitting Con councillor) 1486.  Not even close.

Now that's nice news to see when you log in...

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Labour about a hundred votes off gaining Fulwell. Comedy percentages in the Red Belt.

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lol

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Labour have made huge gains in Nuneaton. And... er... the Greens have picked up a seat on the eternally Tory side of town.

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LibDems are briefing that they've done badly in Cardiff and Wrexham.

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Leader of Wrexham Council reported to have lost his seat. Which would be remarkable if true; he polled over 80% in 2008.