Paul's ceiling in SC

[Jacobtm]

Paul got 21.5% in Iowa, and 23% in NH.

Fivethirtyeight projects him at about 16.5% in South Carolina right now, and he currently seems to be gaining some momentum.

Could he pull off a simmilar low-20's showing in South Carolina? It seemed unlikely a while ago, but with Romney and Santorum both sliding...

[angus]

inshallah.

But I don't think he'll break 20%.  Lots of military base economy there, unlike IA and NH, so the non-interventionist mantra doesn't fly.  And he doesn't have as much organization there.  He's polling around 13 to 15% there now, and that would be a quadrupling of his share in SC in 2008.  But they assign delegates by district I think, with winner taking all in each, and some are awarded statewide to the statewide winner, so there's no practical difference between 13% and 23% if someone else wins the districts.  I haven't seen any by-district polling in SC.

[Jacobtm]

inshallah.

Lots of military base economy there, unlike IA and NH, so the non-interventionist mantra doesn't fly.  

Inshallah, Ojalá, tomayto, tomahto

But have you forgotten how much the actual soldiers dig Paul? Especially with the buildup to war with Iran, I imagine many soldiers might be even more amenable to him this time around than in '08, after ''only'' 7 years of non-stop war.

[Lief 🗽]

Are there any military areas in Iowa or New Hampshire where we can check to see how Paul did? Because I'm inclined to agree with Jacobtm.

[Oakvale]

I would imagine there's way more DoD employees and beneficiaries than actual soldiers.

[angus]

But have you forgotten how much the actual soldiers dig Paul?

How could I?  I live in Iowa, and my mailbox was bombarded daily for the last three weeks of December reminding me about how military contributions to Paul exceed contributions to all other candidates (GOP and Obama) combined.  

It's a good point about the military supporting Ron Paul, but where do soldiers vote?  Do they register at their base?  Or do they have some other "permanent" address, like students?  I must admit my ignorance here, and I'd assumed that they bulk of them vote in their home states, not in SC, whereas the SC locals, who do depend upon those military dollars flowing into their local economy, would be less likely to support Paul's military budget cuts.

But, for all I know the soldiers may vote in SC.  Alhamdulillah.

[Jacobtm]

But have you forgotten how much the actual soldiers dig Paul?

How could I?  I live in Iowa, and my mailbox was bombarded daily for the last three weeks of December reminding me about how military contributions to Paul exceed contributions to all other candidates (GOP and Obama) combined.  

It's a good point about the military supporting Ron Paul, but where do soldiers vote?  Do they register at their base?  Or do they have some other "permanent" address, like students?  I must admit my ignorance here, and I'd assumed that they bulk of them vote in their home states, not in SC, whereas the SC locals, who do depend upon those military dollars flowing into their local economy, would be less likely to support Paul's military budget cuts.

But, for all I know the soldiers may vote in SC.  Alhamdulillah.

I would assume a soldier, like a student, could register either at their ''home'' address or at their base/college.

Just a matter of where the individual registers.

[Free Palestine]

I would imagine there's way more DoD employees and beneficiaries than actual soldiers.

Hence more chickenhawks who won't vote for Paul.

[Eraserhead]

I would be shocked but then again I didn't think he'd be able to beat his Iowa % in New Hampshire.

[Mr. Morden]

Is Paul's support among active duty troops simply a function of it being a disproportionately young male demo?  Or does he overperform among active duty soldiers relative to civilians of the same demographic group?

[TheGlobalizer]

20% and 3rd place is in reach and would be a big win for Paul's cause, if not explicitly for his campaign.  If he's within 10 of the winner it has legs.

[Free Palestine]

Is Paul's support among active duty troops simply a function of it being a disproportionately young male demo?  Or does he overperform among active duty soldiers relative to civilians of the same demographic group?

It might be the youth thing, plus the fact that I'd imagine most people lose the "ra ra 'Murica" mindset once they've been shot at and/or had to pick up their friend's limbs and organs and vacuum up their brains.  Unless of course they've been effectively brainwashed.

[angus]

I would be shocked but then again I didn't think he'd be able to beat his Iowa % in New Hampshire.

I was surprised as well.  Last time, Paul and Obama did well in caucus states, while McCain and Clinton did well in primary states.  But maybe Paul's appeal this time is broad enough that he'll do better in primary states as well. 

[argentarius]

Unless Santorum can get some momentum going (which would probably completely kill off the anti-Romney challenge) he should come 3rd. I'd be quite pleased with 15% and delighted with 20%, which, if Romney slides, is in 2nd place range.

[ingemann]

Is Paul's support among active duty troops simply a function of it being a disproportionately young male demo?  Or does he overperform among active duty soldiers relative to civilians of the same demographic group?

It might be the youth thing, plus the fact that I'd imagine most people lose the "ra ra 'Murica" mindset once they've been shot at and/or had to pick up their friend's limbs and organs and vacuum up their brains.  Unless of course they've been effectively brainwashed.

...or appriciate keeping their job, or do people imagine that the American army would keep it number of employees if Paul's policies was implemented?

[TheGlobalizer]

The Army itself has trouble recruiting and might welcome a reduction that pressure.  Employees of military contractors are another issue entirely.

Military-industrial complex much, folks?

[ingemann]

The Army itself has trouble recruiting and might welcome a reduction that pressure.  Employees of military contractors are another issue entirely.

Military-industrial complex much, folks?

If the USA stopped invading other countries do you really think the army would have trouble recruting people? It seem to have raised the needed qualification to join the army significant in the (relative) peaceful periode up to 2001, and have begun to lowering them since the Iraq War began.

[TheGlobalizer]

The Army itself has trouble recruiting and might welcome a reduction that pressure.  Employees of military contractors are another issue entirely.

Military-industrial complex much, folks?

If the USA stopped invading other countries do you really think the army would have trouble recruting people? It seem to have raised the needed qualification to join the army significant in the (relative) peaceful periode up to 2001, and have begun to lowering them since the Iraq War began.

That's my point.  It would make current Army members happy to not have to go to war, and make the brass happier to not have to pull unqualified garbage off the street to feed into the meat grinder.

[Mr. Morden]

Is Paul's support among active duty troops simply a function of it being a disproportionately young male demo?  Or does he overperform among active duty soldiers relative to civilians of the same demographic group?

It might be the youth thing, plus the fact that I'd imagine most people lose the "ra ra 'Murica" mindset once they've been shot at and/or had to pick up their friend's limbs and organs and vacuum up their brains.  Unless of course they've been effectively brainwashed.

That sounds extremely speculative.  Again, I've yet to see any evidence that active duty military supports Paul in any greater numbers than civilians of the same demo.

[TheGlobalizer]

Is Paul's support among active duty troops simply a function of it being a disproportionately young male demo?  Or does he overperform among active duty soldiers relative to civilians of the same demographic group?

It might be the youth thing, plus the fact that I'd imagine most people lose the "ra ra 'Murica" mindset once they've been shot at and/or had to pick up their friend's limbs and organs and vacuum up their brains.  Unless of course they've been effectively brainwashed.

That sounds extremely speculative.  Again, I've yet to see any evidence that active duty military supports Paul in any greater numbers than civilians of the same demo.

Campaign contribution totals?  Paul is cleaning up.

It may not be dispositive but it certainly qualifies as "evidence".

[Mr. Morden]

Is Paul's support among active duty troops simply a function of it being a disproportionately young male demo?  Or does he overperform among active duty soldiers relative to civilians of the same demographic group?

It might be the youth thing, plus the fact that I'd imagine most people lose the "ra ra 'Murica" mindset once they've been shot at and/or had to pick up their friend's limbs and organs and vacuum up their brains.  Unless of course they've been effectively brainwashed.

That sounds extremely speculative.  Again, I've yet to see any evidence that active duty military supports Paul in any greater numbers than civilians of the same demo.

Campaign contribution totals?  Paul is cleaning up.

It may not be dispositive but it certainly qualifies as "evidence".

Again, how do those contributions compare to those from other young people who are civilians?  I'm willing to buy this if someone will show me the evidence.

[Stranger in a strange land]

around 15%.

In my experience, people who work with the military tend to be far more hawkish than people in the military.

[TheGlobalizer]

Is Paul's support among active duty troops simply a function of it being a disproportionately young male demo?  Or does he overperform among active duty soldiers relative to civilians of the same demographic group?

It might be the youth thing, plus the fact that I'd imagine most people lose the "ra ra 'Murica" mindset once they've been shot at and/or had to pick up their friend's limbs and organs and vacuum up their brains.  Unless of course they've been effectively brainwashed.

That sounds extremely speculative.  Again, I've yet to see any evidence that active duty military supports Paul in any greater numbers than civilians of the same demo.

Campaign contribution totals?  Paul is cleaning up.

It may not be dispositive but it certainly qualifies as "evidence".

Again, how do those contributions compare to those from other young people who are civilians?  I'm willing to buy this if someone will show me the evidence.

I think what you're asking for isn't available.  The military isn't exactly just a bunch of college-aged kids, by the way.

[Mr. Morden]

The military isn't exactly just a bunch of college-aged kids, by the way.

No, but it obviously skews more towards the under-30 crowd than does the general population.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The military isn't exactly just a bunch of college-aged kids, by the way.

No, but it obviously skews more towards the under-30 crowd than does the general population.

It still adds up to the same thing, though.

Either the military is filled with the youth and thus its members leans strongly (in the realm of 40%+ going by the previous states) towards Paul, or the military is tired of the constant wars and leans strongly towards Paul.

Regardless, it means Paul is getting active duty military support, and that could be useful in South Carolina. Of course, military contractors aren't so likely to support him, but then one of his biggest contributors is from Lockheed Martin, so go figure.

He doesn't really need to win, though, he just needs a strong enough showing to keep going. Ideally he'd come third or second and with first place being disputed enough (as in, not with Romney but not with a real definite winner) that he could slide past Florida and go on to do better in states he's more likely to carry.