How will Obama perform in Arizona in 2012 compared to 2008?

[greenforest32]

?

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I can't see him doing any better than a point or two more than in 2008, certainly not enough to win the state.

[Vasall des Midas]

If the national environment were identical, which it won't be, right about good enough to win the state. If he polls roughly equally nationally but in somewhat different areas, as I think is quite possible, better but not enough to win the state. If he polls worse but good enough to win nationally, probably slightly better here but anyways no worse than about equal. If he loses or comes close to, worse but not nearly as much worse as elsewhere in the west and the suburbs.

[Odysseus]

He will probably win the state.

[Senator Snowstalker]

I can't see him doing any better than a point or two more than in 2008, certainly not enough to win the state.

[Kevin]

Lol, who are the 25% who said that Obama would win the state?

[Indy Prez]

If Ron Paul runs on a thrid party ticket, then I think Obama'll definitely take the state. Neither Kyl, McCain or Brewer are attractive prospective running mates.

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

If Romney's the nominee, he'll lose, if not, he'll win.

[sg0508]

I could see him stealing AZ.  Two more weeks in 2008 and McCain may have lost there.  Keep in mind, the population shifts continue to favor Democrats.

[GOP732]

If Ron Paul runs on a thrid party ticket, then I think Obama'll definitely take the state. Neither Kyl, McCain or Brewer are attractive prospective running mates.

I agree with you on McCain and Brewer, but I really think Kyle would make a great VP

[Sasquatch]

GOP - 52%
Obama - 47%

[InsaneTrollLogic]

He will be more or less competitive there if he wins reelection by an undisputable margin. If its close, it will probably be 47/52...I don't see how he can do worse.

I would say Arizona will have a PVI of R +2.5, meaning if he does as well as he did last year, he has a 50/50 chance of winning.

New Mexico will probably have a PVI of like D +8 (much like Oregon or New Jersey) and Nevada and Colorado will have a PVI of like D +2. This means that if the GOP wins as good as Obama did in 2008, they will have a 50/50 shot at both of them.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

R: 54%
D: 43%

If Obama loses.

R: 52%
D: 46%

if Obama wins slightly.

D: 49%
R: 48.9%

if Obama wins big.

[InsaneTrollLogic]

R: 54%
D: 43%

If Obama loses.

R: 52%
D: 46%

if Obama wins slightly.

D: 49%
R: 48.9%

if Obama wins big. convincingly...i.e. does any better than W in 2004

If there's a landslide? Probably
Obama 51
GOP 48

I'll got with R+2, meaning that in a tied election, the Republican would get 52% of the two-party vote. Basically, NC, IN or FL. 

[Tidewater_Wave]

He'll do about as well as anyone who tried to sue the state for having a policy that goes against their ideology.

[Is Totally Not Feeblepizza.]

Definitely better, but still not enough to carry the state.

[Yank2133]

Definitely better, but still not enough to carry the state.

This.

[Tidewater_Wave]

If someone sued me for not agreeing with them on a political issue which in this case is immigration, then I wouldn't be inclined to vote for them for re-election.

[mondale84]

If someone sued me for not agreeing with them on a political issue which in this case is immigration, then I wouldn't be inclined to vote for them for re-election.

Ummm...not everyone in Arizona agrees with the legislature's immigration policy...

[InsaneTrollLogic]

So, he was still able to win in states where they sued him and his congress for their ideology....or is there a nuance I'm not getting? :p

[Tidewater_Wave]

If someone sued me for not agreeing with them on a political issue which in this case is immigration, then I wouldn't be inclined to vote for them for re-election.

Ummm...not everyone in Arizona agrees with the legislature's immigration policy...

I'm sure not everyone does agree. For example those who are here illegally sure don't agree with it. In each state and nation you get a variance of political ideology and stances on issues. I'm talking about what the state did as a law to protect their borders though and Obama suing over it. All things being equal he's lose about 56-43.

[greenforest32]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/16/us/politics/obama-campaign-turns-attention-on-arizona.html

PHOENIX — President Obama’s re-election campaign is dispatching workers across Arizona’s college campuses and Latino neighborhoods this spring, registering as many new voters as they can in an organized, three-month effort to determine whether they can put this unlikely state into play for Democrats this November.

By any measure the obstacles are considerable: Arizona has voted for precisely one Democratic president since Truman was in the White House. Yet Mr. Obama’s aides said in interviews that they thought it was possible they could move the needle of history by winning in 2012 a state that analysts believe is heading Democratic in national elections, but may not be there yet.

Obama strategists are simply following the same techniques they used in 2008 when putting states like North Carolina and Indiana into play. Then, too, there was much initial skepticism, though both states ended up going for Mr. Obama.

Yet for all those signs of organizing activity — and the fact that demographic and political changes across the West have made this region increasingly tempting ground for Democrats —Mr. Obama’s campaign strategists are not yet convinced he can win the state this November. Mr. Obama’s aides said they closely monitored the organizing here and would assess the result of their work over the next few months to see whether it made sense to pour money and resources into Arizona this fall.

Should they succeed, they may well expand the playing map, no minor accomplishment, as some states that Mr. Obama won last time now seem at risk, including North Carolina and Indiana. Perhaps more significant, it would be powerful evidence of the political and demographic changes that seem to be moving slowly across Arizona, as it catches up with the rest of the West, where several states have been trending Democratic.

This is in no small part because of the increase in Latino populations and a series of legislative efforts aimed at immigration — with the Republican governor and state Legislature of Arizona leading the way — that polls suggest have created a backlash among many Latino voters.

“It is going to be a swing state,” said Jim Messina, the president’s campaign manager. “The question is, whether we can get enough people registered to put it in play this year.”

“If you just close your eyes and look at the census numbers, look at the number of unregistered voters, look at how this is the only state in the country that didn’t have a primary or a contested general in 2008, so there was no organizing,” Mr. Messina said as he ticked off the factors that work in their favor. “And look next door. Look at New Mexico, look at Colorado, look at California. All that stuff is going to come to Arizona. The question is, can we get it there in time? How expensive is it do it?”

http://censusscope.org/2010Census/states.php?state=AZ&name=Arizona

http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0826_census_race_frey.aspx

Oh man, Arizona is going to be fun to watch:

Just what are Republicans going to do about Arizona and Texas in the next few decades? They're afraid of the national popular vote but their national Electoral College vote floor isn't looking good.

[Tender Branson]

Well, if they are trying to win AZ then their internal polls must show something similar to PPP's last poll which showed a tie and not something like Rasmussen which showed Romney up 10. If they were down by 10, they wouldn't even try there.

But I think Obama only gets 48% in the end. AZ seems too Republican.

[BaldEagle1991]

My prediction:

Romney 51
Obama 49

Even in a state where they have been so harsh on immigrants and internet trolls, he will lose in that state.