How will Obama perform in Arizona in 2012 compared to 2008?
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  How will Obama perform in Arizona in 2012 compared to 2008?
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Poll
Question: Compared to 2008, Obama's 2012 performance in Arizona will be:
#1
Better, enough to win the state
 
#2
Better, but not enough to win the state
 
#3
The same
 
#4
Worse
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 94

Author Topic: How will Obama perform in Arizona in 2012 compared to 2008?  (Read 5353 times)
greenforest32
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« on: January 12, 2012, 04:36:44 PM »

?
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RIP Robert H Bork
officepark
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« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2012, 05:05:26 PM »

I can't see him doing any better than a point or two more than in 2008, certainly not enough to win the state.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2012, 06:15:10 AM »

If the national environment were identical, which it won't be, right about good enough to win the state. If he polls roughly equally nationally but in somewhat different areas, as I think is quite possible, better but not enough to win the state. If he polls worse but good enough to win nationally, probably slightly better here but anyways no worse than about equal. If he loses or comes close to, worse but not nearly as much worse as elsewhere in the west and the suburbs.
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Penelope
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« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2012, 08:16:29 AM »

He will probably win the state.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2012, 12:54:51 PM »

I can't see him doing any better than a point or two more than in 2008, certainly not enough to win the state.
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Kevin
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« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2012, 02:53:21 PM »

Lol, who are the 25% who said that Obama would win the state?
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Indy Prez
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« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2012, 01:54:08 PM »

If Ron Paul runs on a thrid party ticket, then I think Obama'll definitely take the state. Neither Kyl, McCain or Brewer are attractive prospective running mates.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2012, 09:54:50 AM »

If Romney's the nominee, he'll lose, if not, he'll win.
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sg0508
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« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2012, 02:47:43 PM »

I could see him stealing AZ.  Two more weeks in 2008 and McCain may have lost there.  Keep in mind, the population shifts continue to favor Democrats.
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GOP732
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« Reply #9 on: February 12, 2012, 03:40:33 PM »

If Ron Paul runs on a thrid party ticket, then I think Obama'll definitely take the state. Neither Kyl, McCain or Brewer are attractive prospective running mates.

I agree with you on McCain and Brewer, but I really think Kyle would make a great VP
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #10 on: February 12, 2012, 05:06:01 PM »

GOP - 52%
Obama - 47%
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: February 12, 2012, 06:21:07 PM »

He will be more or less competitive there if he wins reelection by an undisputable margin. If its close, it will probably be 47/52...I don't see how he can do worse.

I would say Arizona will have a PVI of R +2.5, meaning if he does as well as he did last year, he has a 50/50 chance of winning.

New Mexico will probably have a PVI of like D +8 (much like Oregon or New Jersey) and Nevada and Colorado will have a PVI of like D +2. This means that if the GOP wins as good as Obama did in 2008, they will have a 50/50 shot at both of them.
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Klecly
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« Reply #12 on: February 12, 2012, 06:34:17 PM »

R: 54%
D: 43%

If Obama loses.

R: 52%
D: 46%

if Obama wins slightly.

D: 49%
R: 48.9%

if Obama wins big.
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2012, 05:28:01 PM »

R: 54%
D: 43%

If Obama loses.

R: 52%
D: 46%

if Obama wins slightly.

D: 49%
R: 48.9%

if Obama wins big. convincingly...i.e. does any better than W in 2004

If there's a landslide? Probably
Obama 51
GOP 48

I'll got with R+2, meaning that in a tied election, the Republican would get 52% of the two-party vote. Basically, NC, IN or FL. 
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2012, 02:14:44 AM »

He'll do about as well as anyone who tried to sue the state for having a policy that goes against their ideology.
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Is Totally Not Feeblepizza.
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« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2012, 01:13:40 PM »

Definitely better, but still not enough to carry the state.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #16 on: March 02, 2012, 02:09:28 PM »

Definitely better, but still not enough to carry the state.

This.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #17 on: March 02, 2012, 05:17:10 PM »

If someone sued me for not agreeing with them on a political issue which in this case is immigration, then I wouldn't be inclined to vote for them for re-election.
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mondale84
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« Reply #18 on: March 02, 2012, 06:16:54 PM »

If someone sued me for not agreeing with them on a political issue which in this case is immigration, then I wouldn't be inclined to vote for them for re-election.

Ummm...not everyone in Arizona agrees with the legislature's immigration policy...
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Person Man
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« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2012, 07:17:16 PM »

So, he was still able to win in states where they sued him and his congress for their ideology....or is there a nuance I'm not getting? Tongue
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #20 on: March 03, 2012, 09:23:46 PM »

If someone sued me for not agreeing with them on a political issue which in this case is immigration, then I wouldn't be inclined to vote for them for re-election.

Ummm...not everyone in Arizona agrees with the legislature's immigration policy...

I'm sure not everyone does agree. For example those who are here illegally sure don't agree with it. In each state and nation you get a variance of political ideology and stances on issues. I'm talking about what the state did as a law to protect their borders though and Obama suing over it. All things being equal he's lose about 56-43.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #21 on: April 16, 2012, 04:37:41 AM »
« Edited: April 16, 2012, 05:03:49 AM by greenforest32 »

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/16/us/politics/obama-campaign-turns-attention-on-arizona.html

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http://censusscope.org/2010Census/states.php?state=AZ&name=Arizona



Just what are Republicans going to do about Arizona and Texas in the next few decades? They're afraid of the national popular vote but their national Electoral College vote floor isn't looking good.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: April 16, 2012, 05:04:50 AM »

Well, if they are trying to win AZ then their internal polls must show something similar to PPP's last poll which showed a tie and not something like Rasmussen which showed Romney up 10. If they were down by 10, they wouldn't even try there.

But I think Obama only gets 48% in the end. AZ seems too Republican.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #23 on: April 17, 2012, 08:21:52 AM »

My prediction:

Romney 51
Obama 49

Even in a state where they have been so harsh on immigrants and internet trolls, he will lose in that state.

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