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| | | |-+  SC PrimR: ARG: Romney slightly ahead of Gingrich, Paul strong but Santorum is crashing
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Author Topic: SC PrimR: ARG: Romney slightly ahead of Gingrich, Paul strong but Santorum is crashing  (Read 855 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: January 13, 2012, 11:17:28 am »

New Poll: South Carolina President by ARG on 2012-01-12

Summary:
Romney:
29%
Gingrich:
25%
Paul:
20%
Perry:
9%
Santorum:
7%
Other:
3%
Undecided:
7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2012, 11:18:31 am »

What's up with Santorum ?

He dropped 8 points in the new Rasmussen poll and now this ... Tongue
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2012, 11:21:06 am »
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This poll is a really big outlier...
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2012, 11:56:07 am »
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Paul:
20%

Holy sh**.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2012, 11:58:54 am »


ARG's South Carolina polls in 2008 were really sh*tty.

But let's wait for the PPP poll that's coming out later today and we'll see if Paul is surging or not.
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2012, 12:03:08 pm »
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ARG seems to be capturing the trend of the polling, but vastly overestimates it compared to the other recent polls.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2012, 12:06:02 pm by At Literally the Speed of Light! »Logged

Reading the 3012 boards dulls one's sense of irony.

Seriously. How many times can we read about the Obamachine 3000 pulling ahead of the Reagantronix QLZ in the race for Mars Mutant Colony's 48 electoral votes? Sheesh!
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« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2012, 12:04:30 pm »
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ARG
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« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2012, 12:16:41 pm »
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ARG > Leno/Letterman/Stewart/Colbert...
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« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2012, 12:22:17 pm »
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ARG seems to be capturing the trend of the polling, but vastly overestimates it compared to the other recent polls.

Making up numbers and calling it a poll is harder than it looks.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2012, 12:22:31 pm »
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ARG's South Carolina polls in 2008 were really sh*tty.

But let's wait for the PPP poll that's coming out later today and we'll see if Paul is surging or not.

He's clearly surging based on other polls, but I certainly didn't expect to see a poll, even a bad one, with him at 20%.  Agree that PPP is much more dispositive, I'm guessing ~15% in that one.
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« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2012, 12:23:32 pm »
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Paul winning South Carolina would be hilarious. How would the media even attempt to explain that one? But yeah, it's ARG, so...
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2012, 12:25:59 pm »
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Paul winning South Carolina would be hilarious. How would the media even attempt to explain that one?

I would love to see them try.  Epic discomfort.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2012, 12:32:57 pm »

ARG seems to be capturing the trend of the polling, but vastly overestimates it compared to the other recent polls.

Making up numbers and calling it a poll is harder than it looks.

Their 2 final polls (IA, NH) were not so bad though ...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2012, 12:58:12 pm »
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ARG seems to be capturing the trend of the polling, but vastly overestimates it compared to the other recent polls.

Making up numbers and calling it a poll is harder than it looks.

Their 2 final polls (IA, NH) were not so bad though ...

Again, their early 2008 primary polling was really really terrible, but then they suddenly improved after Super Tuesday.  Which leads me to believe that they started cooking the books.  Either that, or they suddenly became competent pollsters.  Which is more likely?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2012, 01:09:58 pm »
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FWIW, PPP also finds Gingrich gaining and Santorum fading.
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« Reply #15 on: January 13, 2012, 01:14:25 pm »
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Romney better not win another primary with another 30% against a split field...
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #16 on: January 13, 2012, 02:04:09 pm »
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FWIW, PPP also finds Gingrich gaining and Santorum fading.

Actually...

@ppppolls
PublicPolicyPolling
Big gainer since last week in our SC poll: Ron Paul. Big loser since last week: Rick Santorum. Little change for most others

Wonder if DeMint's favorable comments grew legs.  Also wonder if Krauthammer's op-ed will soften some of the establishment right's objectionism.
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« Reply #17 on: January 13, 2012, 02:06:50 pm »
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FWIW, PPP also finds Gingrich gaining and Santorum fading.

Actually...

@ppppolls
PublicPolicyPolling
Big gainer since last week in our SC poll: Ron Paul. Big loser since last week: Rick Santorum. Little change for most others

Wonder if DeMint's favorable comments grew legs.  Also wonder if Krauthammer's op-ed will soften some of the establishment right's objectionism.

So Santorum's voters are going to Paul???
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Reading the 3012 boards dulls one's sense of irony.

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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #18 on: January 13, 2012, 02:29:14 pm »
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FWIW, PPP also finds Gingrich gaining and Santorum fading.

Actually...

@ppppolls
PublicPolicyPolling
Big gainer since last week in our SC poll: Ron Paul. Big loser since last week: Rick Santorum. Little change for most others

Wonder if DeMint's favorable comments grew legs.  Also wonder if Krauthammer's op-ed will soften some of the establishment right's objectionism.

So Santorum's voters are going to Paul???

Clearly a shuffle going on, but it sounds like that's how it nets out.
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J. J.
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« Reply #19 on: January 13, 2012, 02:54:15 pm »
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FWIW, PPP also finds Gingrich gaining and Santorum fading.

I think the 'bots show that too.
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Korwinist
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« Reply #20 on: January 13, 2012, 03:15:15 pm »
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FWIW, PPP also finds Gingrich gaining and Santorum fading.

Actually...

@ppppolls
PublicPolicyPolling
Big gainer since last week in our SC poll: Ron Paul. Big loser since last week: Rick Santorum. Little change for most others

Wonder if DeMint's favorable comments grew legs.  Also wonder if Krauthammer's op-ed will soften some of the establishment right's objectionism.

So Santorum's voters are going to Paul???

S'not hard to imagine.

A lot of people get the image of all Paul supporters being young libertarian sorts who like low taxes and pot while disliking wars. That was the case in 08 maybe, but he's attracted a lot of periphery demographics along the way (pro-gun people, anti-war liberals, etc) that are soft but prefer him to Romney.

In Iowa, that periphery almost won him the caucus, but then there was a nonstop media barrage of SANTORUM SURGING based on a flawed CNN poll, which led to a chunk of Paul's soft support going to Santorum because they were "anyone but Romney" voters.

In New Hampshire, it didn't work so well since Huntsman is a known liberal at best and most anti-Romney voters are more conservative and thus would prefer someone they at least think is conservative too (Santorum had this). Paul's base could be considered liberal, and has a lot of liberal elements, but is about as solid a base as you can get.

I honestly thought the best Paul could get in SC would be maybe fourth or third, but looking at this momentum I'd say its entirely possible he could actually win and create the Bizzaro World of elections (The moderate wins Iowa and New Hampshire, the libertarian wins South Carolina), seeing as how Gingrich is apparently the last non-Paul non-Romney candidate with strength left, and he's devoted himself to a scorched earth strategy against Romney.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #21 on: January 13, 2012, 03:30:52 pm »
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I honestly thought the best Paul could get in SC would be maybe fourth or third, but looking at this momentum I'd say its entirely possible he could actually win and create the Bizzaro World of elections (The moderate wins Iowa and New Hampshire, the libertarian wins South Carolina), seeing as how Gingrich is apparently the last non-Paul non-Romney candidate with strength left, and he's devoted himself to a scorched earth strategy against Romney.

What a f**king weird world it would be if Ron Paul breaks through in SOUTH CAROLINA.  Boggles the mind.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #22 on: January 13, 2012, 03:39:13 pm »
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Agree that PPP is much more dispositive, I'm guessing ~15% in that one.

Dead on:

South Carolina: Romney 29, Gingrich 24, Paul 15, Santorum 14, Perry 6, Huntsman 5, Roemer 1: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/romney-leads-in-sc-paul-gaining.html
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