In 20 years

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

What will happen politically?

[Skill and Chance]

Since this isn't exactly an era of optimism, here's an idea:

Early in 2032, a new generation of Americans prepares to vote in their first presidential election.  In their lifetimes, these new voters have never seen an incumbent president re-elected.  Nor have they ever seen an unemployment rate below 8%.  They have watched both parties disintegrate as the US defaulted on its sovereign debt and they now enjoy barely half the standard of living of their parents 20 years earlier.  At the height of the crisis in 2029, the real value of a US dollar declines by a factor of 10 in one month.

Those seeking renewal have turned inward.  New coalitions are formed, less out of partisanship than as an appeal to the bedrock values that once made America great as the last, best hope to restore its glory.  Social issues fade entirely from the scene as legislators work together to regain control of the economy. The coalitions organize along broadly populist and libertarian lines, appealing respectively to Justice and Freedom.  The election of 2032 becomes one of the closest contests in American history.

Coalition for Freedom: Marco Rubio (FL-Sen)/Jim Himes (CT-Gov) 48.93%
Coalition for Justice: Terri Sewell (AL-Gov)/Lee Terry (NE-Sen) 48.87%

House: Justice 254/Freedom 181
Senate: Justice 54/Freedom 46

Narrow victories in CA, TX and FL give Rubio a surprisingly large margin in the electoral college, but a better geographic distribution of votes gives Justice a majority in congress.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Managing to reduce the number of senators needed to break the filibuster from 60-55 at the beginning of the 113th Congress, Democrats were able to push through a second stimulus and replace Kennedy and Scalia on the Supreme Court. By January of 2017, unemployment had fallen to 5.5%. Though Obama left office with a 56% approval rating, Democratic fatigue combined with the dream ticket of Christie/Rubio, seeking reforms to the existing consensus instead of controversial changes sought by the Tea Party (which is dying at this point), brought the party to victory in the 2016 election over Maryland governor Martin O'Malley and Colorado governor John Hickenlooper.

Christie's term was rather eventful. Many scholars suggest that, despite rising economic tensions during Obama's second term, the first brush with the PRC came with the South China Sea crisis, in which Secretary of State Jon Huntsman was successfully able to negotiate provisional borders as well as plans for additional conferences between South China Sea nations. However, Chinese delegates had hoped for more, and rising populist sentiment in the United States spearheaded by the second wave of Occupy Wall Street protests worried the government.

The 2019-2021 recession may have been caused by a combination of market unrest over Sino-American relations, deregulatory policies under the Christie administration, or, in the conservative view, the aftereffects of Obama's policies dating back to the 2009 stimulus. With trade becoming a major concern, the Democrats nominated liberal populist Virg Bernero of Michigan, who, in an effort to expand the playing field and push the idea of reform, chose Louisiana governor Mitch Landrieu as his running mate. The economic slump combined with perceived inaction by the Christie administration doomed the president.

I'll continue this.

[Skill and Chance]

Prologue: Fall 2012

The stars seemed to have aligned for President Obama.  After a turbulent 4 years in office he had seen several foreign policy victories and the unemployment rate had fallen to 8.1% by September.  Two weeks before the election, polling indicated a narrow victory over Mitt Romney for the incumbent: 50% to 47% on average.  Painting Romney as out of touch with a populist message, he enjoyed small leads in OH and PA, but some of his new conquests from 2008 looked far shakier.

Then disaster struck for the Obama campaign with the new jobs report the Friday before the election: on net, not a single new job had been created during the month of October.  Romney pounced on the news and announced a $25 million "President Zero" ad buy to air during primetime television in all the Midwestern swing states the weekend before the election.  It was just enough for Romney to make up ground and carry the night with OH, PA and WI. 

Romney 49.2%  287 EV
Obama  48.8%   251 EV

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's what a tied race would look like IMO :

Dem Stronghold (+20pts) : 6
Solid Dem (10-20pts) : 132
Likely Dem (5-10pts) : 59
Lean Dem (0-5pts) : 76
Lean Rep (0-5pts) : 67
Likely Rep (5-10pts) : 102
Solid Rep (10-20) : 65
Rep Stronghold (+20pts) : 31

This is loosely based on past trends which are likely to continue. Democrats take over the southwest and make inroads in the southern East Coast, while the republicans grow in the midwest and the northeast. I assume polarization will decline a bit, considering how strong it is today. I also estimated the composition of the Electoral College (I guesstimated future growth rates for 2020 and 2030 based on the trends of past censuses).

[afleitch]

Well let's see. In 20 years, those born between 1945 and 1960 will be between and 72 and 87; in other words alot of them will be dead.  Most people on the forum today will be anything from 35 to 50odd years old. If the GOP does not shift on social issues it will be dead.

[5280]

Well let's see. In 20 years, those born between 1945 and 1960 will be between and 72 and 87; in other words alot of them will be dead.  Most people on the forum today will be anything from 35 to 50odd years old. If the GOP does not shift on social issues it will be dead.

If the GOP dies, then there will be a one party system in the US.  That will lead to riots, protests and eventually a 2nd party will form again.

[Person Man]

Well let's see. In 20 years, those born between 1945 and 1960 will be between and 72 and 87; in other words alot of them will be dead.  Most people on the forum today will be anything from 35 to 50odd years old. If the GOP does not shift on social issues it will be dead.

If the GOP dies, then there will be a one party system in the US.  That will lead to riots, protests and eventually a 2nd party will form again.

No one's going to argue with that. I can see the TEA party replacing the Republican Party or the Occupy Wall Street replacing the Democratic Party.

In this polarized environment, I would say that if an "in" party keeps total control for 6 years, people will start to question the viability of the "out" party. If it goes on for 8 years, I think at that point many could consider the opposition "dead".

If the Republican Party "dies", the resulting unrest will be a lot like an Eric Rudolph, massive TEA party events with people brandishing guns, OKC or Ruby Ridge happening about every month until a new conservative party takes over at least one branch of the government.

The Democratic analog would be things like race riots in major cities, protests in front of gated communities and conservative churches and the like going on until there is a viable progressive alternative again.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyone else wants to try an EV prediction ? This might be fun.

[Is Totally Not Feeblepizza.]

The libertarian/populist realignment scenario seems most likely.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

GOP shifts to more Libertarian views, Democrats shift to more Populist views. A third party may or may not emerge.

[Mechaman]

2032?

Ballpark figure here.

[5280]

GOP shifts to more Libertarian views, Democrats shift to more Populist views. A third party may or may not emerge.

This