Which culturally Southern state will be the first to legalize gay marriage?

[Skill and Chance]

Predict the state and the year.  It must be a law passed by the state legislature or a state referendum, not a court case or federal law.

*No, MD does not count as Southern.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Virginia, 2028

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

All at the same time via SCOTUS decision.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Virginia, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, West Virginia, Georgia.

[greenforest32]

All at the same time via SCOTUS decision.

^^^

Absent SCOTUS I'd say Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Maybe Georgia? PPP should really poll GA (*hint*)

[tpfkaw]

Florida obviously.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

All at the same time via SCOTUS decision.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm thinking along these lines, assuming the Supreme Court does not intervene for the foreseeable future:

1. VA- early 2020's, outgoing act of popular Democratic governor
2. FL- mid 2020's, constitutional amendment by referendum
3. NC- amendment by referendum, whenever the Dems retake the state legislature
.
.
.
4. TX- mid 2030's, a very libertarian GOP governor with presidential ambitions unites the oilmen and the urban liberals

The pickings are very, very slim after that...

[memphis]

All at the same time via SCOTUS decision.

Doubtful. The GOP will filibuster any Dem replacement for Kennedy, Alito, Robert, Scalia, or Thomas.

[Marokai Backbeat]

All at the same time via SCOTUS decision.

Doubtful. The GOP will filibuster any Dem replacement for Kennedy, Alito, Robert, Scalia, or Thomas.

You don't believe there's a chance Kennedy would rule in favor of it? I have some small amount of hope for that.

[LastVoter]

Probably NC, closely followed by GA. These are the two states that are most susceptible to becoming unsouthern. VA is relatively stable, it's 2/3 southern and 1/3 northern.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Correct answer: All will get gay marriage at the same exact time as a result of a U.S. Supreme Court case. For most of these states, it simply wouldn't happen any other way.

Otherwise, Virginia would probably legalize it first.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Disregarding the SCOTUS argument:

Virginia, followed by Florida, followed by North Carolina.

The rest are anybody's guess.

[Skill and Chance]

All at the same time via SCOTUS decision.

Doubtful. The GOP will filibuster any Dem replacement for Kennedy, Alito, Robert, Scalia, or Thomas.

You don't believe there's a chance Kennedy would rule in favor of it? I have some small amount of hope for that.

Yes, it's possible that Obama gets to appoint Kennedy's successor during a second term, but I would be equally if not more concerned about President Romney getting to appoint Ginsburg's successor.  That would take gay marriage off the table until the 2030's.

[Mechaman]

South Carolina.  Because it is so gay.

Nah seriously though dog?  I'd probably guess any one of the southern states that has a liberal artsy fartsy haven in it like Tennessee, North Carolina, or Virginia.  Oh wait.....I forgot Florida!  How could I forget Florida!

So yeah, I'd probably say Florida is on track to be the 1st "Southern state" given the growth of it's cosmopolitan areas and the influence of crack cocaine lowering people's inhibitions (or whatever the hell that word is) to sodomy and Interior Design degrees!

[milhouse24]

I don't think the federal government will ever recognize gay marriage because it will create too many headaches, specifically it will be a huge liability for homeland security and illegal immigration.  There will be too many fake gay marriages and platonic gay marriages for foreigners seeking US citizenship through marriage than the government will be able to process or handle.  I can see the backlog taking years and years for background checks to be completed on foreign nationals.  Its just too much of a security risk for the federal government to allow.  I think Canada allow gay marriage immigration but no one wants to live in Canada.  Even the gay couples who get married in Canada don't want to live there or pay taxes there. 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

You don't believe there's a chance Kennedy would rule in favor of it? I have some small amount of hope for that.

I could easily see Kennedy doing that.  It's not the exact same, but the Lawrence ruling indicates that it is possible.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

FL by 2017....all the rest by 2024

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

A swing state like Virginia/North Carolina/Florida/Missouri.

[Free Palestine]

I don't think the federal government will ever recognize gay marriage because it will create too many headaches, specifically it will be a huge liability for homeland security and illegal immigration.  There will be too many fake gay marriages and platonic gay marriages for foreigners seeking US citizenship through marriage than the government will be able to process or handle.  I can see the backlog taking years and years for background checks to be completed on foreign nationals.  Its just too much of a security risk for the federal government to allow.  I think Canada allow gay marriage immigration but no one wants to live in Canada.  Even the gay couples who get married in Canada don't want to live there or pay taxes there. 

lol

[Mechaman]

I don't think the federal government will ever recognize gay marriage because it will create too many headaches, specifically it will be a huge liability for homeland security and illegal immigration.  There will be too many fake gay marriages and platonic gay marriages for foreigners seeking US citizenship through marriage than the government will be able to process or handle.  I can see the backlog taking years and years for background checks to be completed on foreign nationals.  Its just too much of a security risk for the federal government to allow.  I think Canada allow gay marriage immigration but no one wants to live in Canada.  Even the gay couples who get married in Canada don't want to live there or pay taxes there. 

lol

Because obviously if an illegal comes over and marries a member of the opposite sex it's not as much of a sham as a same sex marriage?  Especially if there's kids!

[Yelnoc]

Florida
Missouri
Georgia
Virginia
North Carolina
--------
The rest would most likely require a SCOTUS decision.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I actually believe that the U.S. could have legalized gay marriage by the end of this year. It's a pretty ambitious prediction, but I don't think it's too out there.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The one that is the least culturally Southern (or rather will be the least culturally Southern): North Carolina or maybe Virginia.

[Psychic Octopus]

Virginia would be the first, SCOTUS decision seems more likely.

I actually believe that the U.S. could have legalized gay marriage by the end of this year. It's a pretty ambitious prediction, but I don't think it's too out there.

What is your reasoning?