Obama campaign plans big ad buy in 14 battleground states

[Tender Branson]

Obama campaign preparing for major TV ad buy

Republican voters may not have settled yet on a challenger to take on President Obama, but his reelection campaign is laying the groundwork for what could be a major television advertising buy to buttress his standing in the coming months.

Campaign officials have requested ad rates from television stations in at least 14 states, according to a strategist with a prominent political media agency, the first step they would take before deciding to purchase air time. That does not mean a buy will definitely occur this quarter, but Republicans are bracing for what they believe will be a multimillion-dollar campaign on the heels of the South Carolina GOP primary.

The states the campaign is eying are largely the key battlegrounds for 2012. The list includes Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Iowa.

The potential buy was first reported by NBC News.

While the Republican candidates and their allies have been battling over the nomination, spending millions on ads that attack Obama in the process, the president’s reelection campaign has been relatively quiet so far.

The launch of Obama's first significant television ad buy would signal the kick-off of the general election, even if the GOP primary process was not yet wrapped up. If that occurred, some GOP strategists expect it could trigger a commensurate response on the air by Republican-aligned outside groups such as American Crossroads.

"The Obama campaign has really studied the Bush re-election playbook of 2004," said Michael Toner, an election law expert who served as counsel to the first Bush-Cheney campaign. "They've looked at how Bush campaign dismantled Kerry. [They] immediately turned and blasted Kerry literally within days of Kerry being the presumptive nominee."

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-campaign-ad-buy-20120117,0,4077063.story

[Eraserhead]

Arizona over Missouri or Indiana?

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, the lack of Missouri surprises me.

Recent polls have clearly shown the state competetive against Romney.

Maybe the have some internal polling that suggests MO, IN and GA are not really competetive.

[pbrower2a]

Yeah, the lack of Missouri surprises me.

Recent polls have clearly shown the state competitive against Romney.

Maybe the have some internal polling that suggests MO, IN and GA are not really competitive.

If the Obama campaign tries to reach extreme southwest Michigan it has to buy ad time in the South Bend market. For extreme northwestern Ohio the Obama campaign has to buy in the Fort Wayne market. Cincinnati and Dayton broadcast areas include sizable chunks of Indiana.

In 2008 the Obama campaign found Indiana very close as Michigan became uncompetitive... and it reallocated advertising from places like Michigan elsewhere... like Indiana. Ohio remained close, so the ads stayed on the air in Fort Wayne, and ads in South Bend were kept on the air for Indiana voters  The Obama campaign started buying ad time in Indianapolis, Terre Haute, and Evansville.

Very simply: Indiana is more R than Ohio, and President Obama can't win Indiana without also winning Ohio, a fairly-similar state in demographics. The state stays D as roughly the difference between 350 and 360 electoral votes. Ohio, in contrast, is perhaps the difference between 265 and 285 electoral votes in some scenarios.   

 

[Lief 🗽]

Eh, if Obama is winning Indiana and Missouri he's probably already won Virginia and Ohio. Those are nice states to win but they're not part of getting to 270.

[tmthforu94]

Good. Hopefully Obama doesn't even try here so I don't have to see 2 ads of his every commercial break.

[King]

"The Obama campaign has really studied the Bush re-election playbook of 2004," said Michael Toner, an election law expert who served as counsel to the first Bush-Cheney campaign. "They've looked at how Bush campaign dismantled Kerry. [They] immediately turned and blasted Kerry literally within days of Kerry being the presumptive nominee."

Obama going on the offensive against Romney could really help Newt and Paul.  Their campaign purchasing in Florida, Nevada, and Colorado also partially negates the Mitt's "one state ahead" strategy in ad buys.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'd go to Missouri and Indiana before Arizona. They'd seem less likely to admire Mitt's record on jobs.

[Politico]

I'd go to Missouri and Indiana before Arizona. They'd seem less likely to admire Mitt's record on jobs.

Yes, because those states are so pleased with Obama's record on jobs *rolls eyes*

[Skill and Chance]

I'd go to Missouri and Indiana before Arizona. They'd seem less likely to admire Mitt's record on jobs.

I don't know if I agree.  His rejection of the Keystone Pipeline today tells me that he is playing more to the Southwestern swing voters than the Midwestern swing voters.  It looks like he's settling on a CO/VA/FL strategy vs. an OH/PA strategy.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Nah, it's more a progressive decision in general. Ohio and Pennsylvania are looking decent for the president and should go to him (he knows better than to completely abandon the Rustbelt; it's just too juicy and they're mad at Republicans). Plus, with Romney being a better candidate for Suburbia, Obama's strategy will look like winning everything that Gore and Kerry won plus NV, CO, VA, and/or FL at minimum. Extensions would be to Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Montana and possibly Georgia (after that would probably be the old Clinton South, SC, and TX, but that's highly unlikely)

Plus, it probably won't be big during the campaign, especially since it would have created all of 500 jobs.

[Earthling]

And his likely opponent likes to fire people.

[Politico]

And his likely opponent likes to fire people.

A majority of voters are going to like firing Obama on Tuesday, November 6, so they'll have that in common with Governor Romney.

[Earthling]

It's always sunny in your own fantasy world.

[King]

Politico, where are you from?  I'm just curious.  The CARLHAYDEN-like suspense is killing me.

[pbrower2a]

And his likely opponent likes to fire people.

A majority of voters are going to like firing Obama on Tuesday, November 6, so they'll have that in common with Governor Romney.

You obviously do not speak for a majority of Americans. You have no idea of how a majority of Americans think.

[Politico]

And his likely opponent likes to fire people.

A majority of voters are going to like firing Obama on Tuesday, November 6, so they'll have that in common with Governor Romney.

You obviously do not speak for a majority of Americans. You have no idea of how a majority of Americans think.

We'll see on Tuesday, November 6.

In the meantime, $10,000 bet?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Politico, where are you from?  I'm just curious.  The CARLHAYDEN-like suspense is killing me.

He comes probably from the same factory that gave us t_host1.

[Ljube]

Obama chose battleground states wisely.

Ha can't win Indiana or Missouri, so he won't waste resources there.
And he doesn't need them.