Pelosi aiming to net 35 seats

[Miles]

Article here.

I think its a bit of stretch. I think 20-23 seats would be the upper-end, imo.

[redcommander]

I wish her luck on that. Because she's going to need a sh*t load of it if she wants to win the House back.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I wish her luck on that. Because she's going to need a sh*t load of it if she wants to win the House back.

Never underestimate the ability of House Republicans to make a fool of themselves.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Assuming Obama get reelected I think we'll shrink the Republican margin significantly, enough that Democrats can work with moderate Republicans to accomplish more we've done in the past year.

Would be interesting if we won the house by a hair and lost the senate by a hair.

[smoltchanov]

So far my forecast is between 10 and 15. Too many states in which redistricting was controlled by Republicans. And too few states where Democrats could do whatever they wanted (like Illinois and Maryland). 15 is more realistic))))

[Miles]

Assuming Obama get reelected I think we'll shrink the Republican margin significantly, enough that Democrats can work with moderate Republicans to accomplish more we've done in the past year.

Would be interesting if we won the house by a hair and lost the senate by a hair.

The only one left is Walter Jones.

And too few states where Democrats could do whatever they wanted (like Illinois and Maryland). 15 is more realistic))))

But they did get favorable maps from nonpartisan commissions in CA and AZ.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The state I'm watching is Florida. A court-appointed special master's map there might be the biggest boon for the Democrats this cycle.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

We'll pick up a seat in Nevada as well, with the other seat being a potential toss-up.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     A partisan painting an improbably rosy picture of the upcoming elections? I think I might have seen that somewhere before.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The state I'm watching is Florida. A court-appointed special master's map there might be the biggest boon for the Democrats this cycle.

Unfortunately it looks like the GOP obeyed the new law just enough to avoid the map getting tossed. Granted in doing so they gave the Dems a new seat and threw an already in rough waters GOP incumbent under the bus and left a few seats potentially competitive they could've changed. The real point of contention is the Tampa Bay-St. Petersburg area mess where there's still good lawsuit potential, but I have a feeling any redraws would be just around there instead of the whole map. But if it's enough to scare Bill Young into retirement and result in a Dem-leaning open seat, I'll take it.

Texas looks like a potential court-draw though.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I have long given up trying to predict seat gains at this point. American voters are schizophrenic.

[krazen1211]

The state I'm watching is Florida. A court-appointed special master's map there might be the biggest boon for the Democrats this cycle.

There will not be such. The legislature is finishing up work early in order to be present to do a remapping if one is required.

[freepcrusher]

well 35 seats is probably a bit of a push. I'd expect around a dozen or so seats to be gained. The challenge later this decade will be to make sure to field quality candidates, and have quality governors in the large states to break apart any gerrymander (if the legislature is still GOP).

Put it to you this way: what newly redrawn districts will trend the most toward the democrats by 2020?

[traininthedistance]

The only one left is Walter Jones.

Nah, I'd say the only one left is Frank LoBiondo.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What a surprise "the only one left" is a congressman who lives in the same state or in a neighboring state.

[RogueBeaver]

"Democrats are on pace to keep control of the House."

- Nancy Pelosi, Nov. 2, 2010


'Nuff said.

[Oakvale]

"Democrats are on pace to keep control of the House."

- Nancy Pelosi, Nov. 2, 2010


'Nuff said.

A political figure putting a brave face on certain defeat? Shocking!

[Lief 🗽]

Dems currently lead the generic ballot, but only by enough to win about 20-30 seats. They probably need to win by >3% to take back the House.

[Mr.Phips]

If Gingrich is the nominee, Democrats could gain 40+ seats. 

[Earthling]

Dems currently lead the generic ballot, but only by enough to win about 20-30 seats. They probably need to win by >3% to take back the House.

Well, 30 seats are enough.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

If Gingrich is the nominee, Democrats could gain 40 60+ seats. 

Yeah.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Assuming Obama get reelected I think we'll shrink the Republican margin significantly, enough that Democrats can work with moderate Republicans to accomplish more we've done in the past year.

Would be interesting if we won the house by a hair and lost the senate by a hair.

Hint, the moderate Republicans aren't Republicans any more. Check the party affiliations of Jeffords, Chaffee, Bloomberg, and the like.

[morgieb]

Gerrymandering cost us the House, IMO.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Gerrymandering cost us the House, IMO.

Um? http://cookpolitical.com/node/10516

No net change with the submitted maps. It's easy to cry wolf when the Republicans did control most of the decision process, but we got lucky with those nonpartisan commissions. We got generous maps in California and Arizona. Will probably pick up the new seat in Nevada as well.

[Marokai Backbeat]

If Gingrich is the nominee, Democrats could gain 40+ seats. 

Are you sure we shouldn't sit this one out and just try again in 2014?