Obama/Romney starts here
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 04:48:26 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  Obama/Romney starts here
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3]
Author Topic: Obama/Romney starts here  (Read 7270 times)
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: January 19, 2012, 03:51:57 AM »

This thread isn't about worst-case scenarios... it's about where the race stands.


I understand that, I'm just saying Politico's map isn't that far-fetched - incumbent presidents face far more political risks than challengers do, simply because there's a lot more that can go wrong in 10 months than can go right.

Almost all of them have never seen an incumbent lose, let alone go down in flames like Carter (the polar opposite of Nixon just like Obama promised to be the polar opposite of Bush), so we have to cut them some slack.

Incumbents almost always go big one way or the other. 2004 was an anomaly. To find another president involved in a close race, you have to go back to Woodrow Wilson when you discount the unelected Gerald Ford. If I had to bet, I would bet against Obama going big the right way considering the economic environment, or just the fact that all of that 2008 hope/change stuff never came to fruition. He promised the stars yet delivered Bush's third term under a Democratic Congress (Bush was Big Government enough to propose something like ObamaCare, IMHO; just look at the Medicare drug benefits plan he passed). Just look at Occupy Wall Street. Even Obama's biggest supporters are becoming disillusioned with Obama.

If you ask me, the writing is on the wall. Obama is going down hard. Oh, and remember the questions people had about whether white people said one thing to pollsters and did another in the polling booth? That effect is going to be very real this time, and it has nothing to do with racism but fear of being labeled racist. My prediction: Obama will over-poll by 3-7 points this time.

Considering your previous predictions... I feel relatively comfortable.

I've been right about Romney being the one in the primaries, and I'll be right about Romney being the one in the general election.
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: January 19, 2012, 03:52:52 AM »

Your map is too generous for Obama, given that is based on if elections were held today.  Factors to look at, unemployed hovering around 8-10% from now until November 2012, the crisis in Europe with their debt, Iran's nuclear weapons, and gas prices could be $4-$5 a gallon this summer.   Along with Obama axing the Keystone pipeline permit.

The general perception is that the country is on the upswing, albeit from a very deep trough.  We are weathering Europe better than virtually any of the economic forecasts indicated (notice that the market is actually up this week).  Unemployment has been declining for months now and the state of foreign affairs is much less tumultuous than this time last year.  Think Reagan 1983-84, but with the bottom for Obama in October instead of February.

Weathering Europe? This is the calm before the storm, buddy.
Logged
Dan the Roman
liberalrepublican
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,421
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: January 19, 2012, 05:32:20 AM »

Yeah... Obama losing CA, NY and MA?! The circumstances that bring that about are not just far-fetched... but frankly fricking terrifying.

then you haven't been paying attention to the news:  Iran's Al Qods Brigades are positioned to attack oil installations in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, as well as shut down the Striat of Hormuz, if conflict breaks out (and Obama probably isn't the type to launch a preemptive full-fledge strike to take out that Iranian capability).

Now, chances of conflict between Iran and Israel (or the US) in 2012 may only be 10-25%...but 10-25% is NOT far fetched.



I think there is a real question whether it is demographically possible for a Democrat to lose Massachusetts. Increasingly the state is dominated by minorities, and latte whites, and neither group swings at all. Latte whites in places like Brookline/Lexington blame the GOP  for the current economic problems, get their news from MSNBC, and would still blame the Tea Party and GOP in the vent of all of those events occurring. You are dealing with the Democratic version of those southern exurban voters.

Its also unclear if the minority/high-income white coalition in New York or California is capable of collapse, given the unwillingness of minorities to vote Republican, and the substantial insulation those at the top have from the economy.

Basically unless the GOP is making massive inroads in culturally left-wing voters of the type who believe Gay Marriage = Civil Rights movement and who support the Occupy Movement, or it starts winning over blacks/Puarto Ricans its not winning those states under any circumstances.
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: January 19, 2012, 05:58:45 AM »

actually, Politico's map (minus AZ) is probably Mitt's ground floor - can't really see Mitt doing worse than 159 unless Obama pulls a cure for cancer out of his arse.

But, if everything goes to hell in a hand basket (recession, unemployment >10%, middle-east war sending gas prices >$5, etc...), Obama could be lucky to get 37 electoral votes.

...But, that's obviously not where the election stands today.

Any Democrat's (including Obama's) ground floor right now is about 46%-47% in a two-man race, whatever that means electorally, barring turnout collapse (a la 1988 or 1996, highly unlikely given their far superior turnout operations nowadays).  Republicans need to understand that will not change until the stench of Bush is gone from people's minds, at minimum

The electorate was largely over Nixon by 1976, and completely over him by 1980, so I would not bank on Bush saving Obama's hide.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

You do realize we are now in January 2012, not January 2011, right?
Logged
Ebowed
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,597


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: 2.09

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: January 19, 2012, 06:51:44 AM »

The electorate was largely over Nixon by 1976

The electorate was performing back flips in celebration of Ford's pardon of Nixon.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,486
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: January 19, 2012, 09:55:25 AM »

Your map is too generous for Obama, given that is based on if elections were held today.  Factors to look at, unemployed hovering around 8-10% from now until November 2012, the crisis in Europe with their debt, Iran's nuclear weapons, and gas prices could be $4-$5 a gallon this summer.   Along with Obama axing the Keystone pipeline permit.

The general perception is that the country is on the upswing, albeit from a very deep trough.  We are weathering Europe better than virtually any of the economic forecasts indicated (notice that the market is actually up this week).  Unemployment has been declining for months now and the state of foreign affairs is much less tumultuous than this time last year.  Think Reagan 1983-84, but with the bottom for Obama in October instead of February.

Weathering Europe? This is the calm before the storm, buddy.

You need to chill a bit.  The markets have now had over a year to price in Europe, and they don't seem particularly concerned.  There is an increasing sense that the global financial establishment is "ready for anything" after 2008.  Remember, there are both income and substitution effects in play here.  A decline in global incomes due to the deepening European recession does mean less money available for investment/job creation.  However, Europe's problems (and China's to a lesser extent) make the US look like a shining star by comparison.  The US can also expect to get a lot of international investment and jobs that would have otherwise gone to Europe and/or China over the next year.   

Look at 1946-60.  Europe was basically in continuous recession, but the US prospered greatly because they were the last industrial economy standing.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,486
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: January 19, 2012, 10:07:56 AM »

Your map is too generous for Obama, given that is based on if elections were held today.  Factors to look at, unemployed hovering around 8-10% from now until November 2012, the crisis in Europe with their debt, Iran's nuclear weapons, and gas prices could be $4-$5 a gallon this summer.   Along with Obama axing the Keystone pipeline permit.

Look at the SW in 2008 and 2010.  Democrats consistently overperformed the polls by 4-8 points in every race in CO, NV, NM and CA.  The are systematic underpolling issues at work here.  Romney needs to poll at or above 50% to be confident of a win in any of those states.  Right now CO and NV are polling as statistical ties.   
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: January 19, 2012, 04:10:02 PM »

Your map is too generous for Obama, given that is based on if elections were held today.  Factors to look at, unemployed hovering around 8-10% from now until November 2012, the crisis in Europe with their debt, Iran's nuclear weapons, and gas prices could be $4-$5 a gallon this summer.   Along with Obama axing the Keystone pipeline permit.

The general perception is that the country is on the upswing, albeit from a very deep trough.  We are weathering Europe better than virtually any of the economic forecasts indicated (notice that the market is actually up this week).  Unemployment has been declining for months now and the state of foreign affairs is much less tumultuous than this time last year.  Think Reagan 1983-84, but with the bottom for Obama in October instead of February.

Weathering Europe? This is the calm before the storm, buddy.

You need to chill a bit.  The markets have now had over a year to price in Europe, and they don't seem particularly concerned.  There is an increasing sense that the global financial establishment is "ready for anything" after 2008. 

Monetary authorities are pretty much out of bullets, so I would caution against this type of thought.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I do not disagree with this, but it is hard to imagine a big shock to financial markets in Europe (think Lehman Brothers except worse) not putting most of the global economy in a state of contraction, at least for a quarter or two.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, it definitely does not hurt when most of the rest of the developed world is largely in ruins following the worst war of all-time. I think that explains a lot of 1946-1970ish, really.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: January 19, 2012, 04:57:41 PM »

Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,630


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: January 20, 2012, 01:48:27 AM »


Eh...change IN and MO to Lean R and I'll buy that.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: January 20, 2012, 05:57:40 AM »


A strong Obama win isn't to be entirely ruled out (just like it would require a strong Romney win for him to take PA, CO and NV. My prediction encomprises as much uncertainty as realistically conceivable.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.228 seconds with 14 queries.