This is to debate what would have happened without WW1.
There are a few ways to begin this.
A - The Archduke is never killed, and Austria never goes to war with Serbia
B - Austria goes to war with Serbia, but Russia does not enter the war
C - Austria goes to war with Serbia, and Russia with Austria, but Germany does not join
I think options A and C are most likely.
In C I see a fast war in which Austria loses some lands. 1915 looks like this:
In A I see that when the reforming Archduke comes to power in 1916, that KuK would descend into chaos, and end up looking like this by 1918: