If it were Ellsworth v. Mourdock, would he be leading?

[Brittain33]

Ellsworth seems like a stronger candidate than Donnelly who made a disastrous decision to run for Senate, but who probably would have been waved out of his seat in 2010 anyway. But let's say he'd run and held on in 2010. Would he be leading Mourdock or would he be headed toward a narrow loss on baseline partisanship the way Donnelly appears to be?

[stegosaurus]

I don't see how Ellsworth does better than Donnelly. Both are equally conservative Democrats and represent(ed) districts with similar populations and demographics. AFAIK, neither candidate has much (if any) notoriety. I'd call it a wash.

[Brittain33]

I don't see how Ellsworth does better than Donnelly. Both are equally conservative Democrats and represent(ed) districts with similar populations and demographics. AFAIK, neither candidate has much (if any) notoriety. I'd call it a wash.

I felt like Ellsworth was particularly charismatic. Like a Dem Rick Perry. He's also from a swingier part of the state.

[tmthforu94]

Well, Ellsworth is my former Congressman. I would agree that he is much more charasmatic, and I think he'd be a better fundraiser than Donnelly in a competitive election.

To answer the question, Ellsworth would be polling better than Donnelly is. He'd probably be leading by around 2-3 points. The main reason is that he has higher name recognition than Donnelly does, considering he has ran statewide before.

He's kicking himself for not getting into this race. A friend of mine who worked for Ellsworth said that Brad assumed Lugar would fend off the challenge, and he knew Lugar would be impossible to beat, so didn't bother to run.