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Author Topic: Which part of SC will Romney and Gingrich do well in?  (Read 576 times)
rob in cal
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« on: January 20, 2012, 06:18:13 pm »
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I'm wondering what parts of South Carolina will go more for a Gingrich Santorum type candidate and which Romney will do well in.  IIRC in 2008 Mccain did best along the coast, Huckabee in inland upland areas.  Does Romney replicate Mccain's pattern of support?
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2012, 06:26:21 pm »
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Polls have Gingrich doing best upstate and Romney does best around Columbia and in the low country. According to PPP, Gingrich is leading in the Low Country too though.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2012, 06:28:41 pm by realisticidealist »Logged

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« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2012, 06:36:01 pm »
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Romney will do best in Charleston and all along the coast, and in the suburbs across the border from Charlotte (Fort Mill, etc).

Gingrich will do well in the inland areas - particularly in the central part of the state where most of the black population is concentrated (he's cynically chosen to use racial dog whistles that appeal to white voters in areas like that).

I doubt Santorum or Paul will carry any counties outright. Santorum will probably have his best showing in the suburbs around Charleston and near Charlotte. Paul doesn't do well in Southern states in general and the votes he gets will be anywhere there are universities full of contrarian 18-24 year olds.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2012, 06:37:32 pm »
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Strangely enough, Paul's strongest area according to PPP was upstate.
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« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2012, 06:39:46 pm »
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The map will mimic the 2000 primary map but with the winning candidates having lighter colored shades. Romney will not win many of the rural counties that McCain won in 2008 and will fail to have much appeal among white voters in heavily african-american areas.

Is there any real explanation for why McCain did so well in heavily Black areas in 2008? Why would white voters there have a special reason to vote for him over Huckabee?
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« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2012, 06:48:04 pm »
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« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2012, 07:29:20 pm »
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Mitt wins the wealthy coastal areas--Horry, Beaufort, Charleston--and Columbia.

Newt wins the upstate areas.
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« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2012, 07:30:39 pm »
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Strangely enough, Paul's strongest area according to PPP was upstate.

Paul's been doing well with working-class and low-income voters, which I assume describes upstate.
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« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2012, 07:32:05 pm »
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Romney will do best along the coast. Gingrich will be strong upstate.
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Korwinist
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« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2012, 07:48:49 pm »
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Strangely enough, Paul's strongest area according to PPP was upstate.

Paul's been doing well with working-class and low-income voters, which I assume describes upstate.

THE COMMON WORKING MAN SUPPORTS RON PAUL

more seriously, his base this time around is a bit different. Besides his default support bases (the youth, indies, anti-war, etc) he benefits somewhat from gun voters, survivalists, and people from more rural areas (as was the case in New Hampshire, where he actually won Coos but performed worst in Rockingham). He's been pushing his religious cred, and its working to some degree.

Also, this is somewhat off topic, but has anyone noticed that according to CNN Paul gets 15% of the national primary, but 19% in the "South"? I can't think of any southern state that Paul does better than average in that would boost his numbers like that (Kentucky maybe, Louisiana if they were able to predict turnout I guess).
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« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2012, 07:58:52 pm »
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Strangely enough, Paul's strongest area according to PPP was upstate.

Paul's been doing well with working-class and low-income voters, which I assume describes upstate.

THE COMMON WORKING MAN SUPPORTS RON PAUL

more seriously, his base this time around is a bit different. Besides his default support bases (the youth, indies, anti-war, etc) he benefits somewhat from gun voters, survivalists, and people from more rural areas (as was the case in New Hampshire, where he actually won Coos but performed worst in Rockingham). He's been pushing his religious cred, and its working to some degree.

Also, this is somewhat off topic, but has anyone noticed that according to CNN Paul gets 15% of the national primary, but 19% in the "South"? I can't think of any southern state that Paul does better than average in that would boost his numbers like that (Kentucky maybe, Louisiana if they were able to predict turnout I guess).
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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2012, 11:35:53 pm »
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I mean, Romney should win the low country if he's going to win anywhere. If Newt is winning it like PPP says, its over. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
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« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2012, 11:36:58 pm »
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Mitt wins the wealthy coastal areas--Horry, Beaufort, Charleston--and Columbia.

Newt wins the upstate areas.
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Ernest
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« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2012, 12:33:33 am »
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Strangely enough, Paul's strongest area according to PPP was upstate.

Not really, three of Paul's five best counties in 2008 were in the upstate.  It was the coast he did poorly in last time with the exception of Charleston.
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« Reply #14 on: January 21, 2012, 01:22:56 am »
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PPP says Newt leads Romney in all three regions of the state. He might win all the delegates tomorrow.

Lowlands: Newt 37, Romney 29, Santorum 15, Paul 14
Midlands: Newt 38, Romney 33, Santorum 14, Paul 9
Upstate: Newt 37, Romney 21, Paul 19, Santorum 19
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #15 on: January 21, 2012, 01:27:46 am »
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I'm really looking forward to Barack kicking Newt's ass in the debates. Newt will be up with there, with his arrogant, smug, off the handle personality, just spewing his rhetoric, and Obama will never lose his cool. He'll look at Newt, call him out for his worthless career, bring up all the bullsh*t that he has said, and it'll be over.

I hope those tea baggers have fun canvassing for Newt in Texas so he can manage 100 electoral votes.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2012, 05:18:26 am by ShadowOfTheWave »Logged
Politico
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« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2012, 01:44:54 am »
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I hope those tea baggers have fun canvassing for Newt in Texas so he can manage 100 electoral votes.

They wouldn't even muster that. They would probably only win South Carolina, Mississippi and Alabama. Gingrich strikes me as somebody with a history of psychological issues, more so than any other possible nominee in recent history, and if he were to become the nominee I'm sure his medical records would leak before Election Day (No way a psychiatrist/psychologist would allow somebody with serious psychological issues to win the presidency). It would be a disastrous landslide that would hand Obama a Democratic Congress yet again.

Why was Gingrich declared exempt from the draft again? He has denied getting deferments...
« Last Edit: January 21, 2012, 01:48:23 am by Politico »Logged

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