So why didn't Santorumentum hold on ?
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  So why didn't Santorumentum hold on ?
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Author Topic: So why didn't Santorumentum hold on ?  (Read 1206 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« on: January 22, 2012, 06:26:21 AM »

So, after SC, it seems pretty clear that Gingrich has become the official anti-Romney candidate. Since I haven't followed the political developments of the race after Iowa as much as you, could someone explain me why Santorum didn't manage to capitalize on Iowa to get a decent score in NH and eventually win SC ? And why Gingrich, after pathetic IA and NH results, somehow came back to win SC with more than 40% ? Was Perry's endorsement so crucial, or is it something else ?
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RodPresident
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« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2012, 07:22:59 AM »

Santorum hadn't money to build a good structure at SC. He could have get it, if Perry had dropped out soon after Iowa, releasing valuable assets that he had. I think that he also showed that he didn't leave friends at Washington, as few endorsements came after Iowa (to show how establishment is pro-Romney). I think that many feared that he would be more toxic to downballot than Gingrich, as his positions about gay rights are too radical, even by standards of Republican-leaning and swing states, like he could be easily targeted by his strong neoconservative credentials.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2012, 07:49:23 AM »

Honestly I don't think it ever really existed that much to begin with, at least not broadly. Santorum was the perfect candidate for the Iowa caucuses, but he won by the skin of his teeth with a total percentage in the 20s. He then comes into New Hampshire and battles with Gingrich over 4th/5th, and then loses South Carolina with a weak third even though he shouldn't have had any problem in winning that state considering Newt's own issues. He never had much money, or organization, and I don't really think there was ever much enthusiasm for him to begin with, Iowa aside.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2012, 09:27:07 AM »

Well, he won his first state by a mixture of trucking up and down for a year and getting a full week of constant coverage from CNN. After that point, he lost his ability to campaign (trucking across the state to small time venues doesn't work on a short period of time) and his coverage (which CNN had diverted to Huntsman). He never had much money or organization to speak of, and was generally behind even Gingrich in that regard.
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memphis
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« Reply #4 on: January 22, 2012, 09:34:39 AM »

No. Gingrich is a regional candidate. Really not about momentum,
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« Reply #5 on: January 22, 2012, 09:39:10 AM »
« Edited: January 22, 2012, 09:48:57 AM by consigliere jmfcst »

IA and NH don't represent the jmfcsts.  SC does.
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Politico
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« Reply #6 on: January 22, 2012, 10:09:08 AM »
« Edited: January 22, 2012, 10:15:29 AM by Politico »

IA and NH don't represent the jmfcsts.  SC does.

When did the jmfcsts embrace class warfare, pitting struggling South Carolina Republicans against well-off South Carolina Republicans? That's all Gingrich is about right now.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #7 on: January 22, 2012, 10:16:50 AM »

IA and NH don't represent the jmfcsts.  SC does.

You don't think that Gingrich being to SC what Romney is to NH in terms of geography didn't have any effect whatsoever?

Also, Gingrich is still HIGHLY unlikely to win. Remember, he isn't even REGISTERED on a lot of the state ballots (only Paul and Romney are on every single one IIRC, and considering which states they are I'd imagine that Romney will win most of them). The circumstances that would weaken Romney enough to lose the long race majorly are very unlikely (He would have to lose Florida at least, and unless he was doing really poorly elsewhere would have to lose Nevada too).
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« Reply #8 on: January 22, 2012, 10:30:45 AM »

Santorum was just another flavor of the month, it's just that his time happened to coincide with the Iowa caucus. Why? I suspect that GOP primary voters have a similar opinion on him as jmfcst, and that even most GOP primary voters do care about losing your last election by 17 points.
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memphis
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« Reply #9 on: January 22, 2012, 12:09:29 PM »

Santorum was just another flavor of the month.
Santorum is the flavor of every GOP government.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #10 on: January 22, 2012, 02:15:46 PM »

Santorum's victory in Iowa was a fluke, the product of a favorable week of media coverage, the flaws of the other candidates, and the fact that no one had bothered to pay him any attention before.

There was only about a five to seven day stretch during which he could win the caucuses - and fortunately for him, the contest fell on one of those days.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #11 on: January 22, 2012, 02:28:21 PM »

So basically Santorum lacked organization, credibility, and time to campaign. Fair enough, even though it's a real shame. I still don't get how republicans could get back on Gingrich. Really, why would anyone (even the most conservative nutter) even consider voting for such a vile individual ? Sometimes I feel like the crazy right just loves evil people.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #12 on: January 22, 2012, 02:43:43 PM »

I still don't get how republicans could get back on Gingrich. Really, why would anyone (even the most conservative nutter) even consider voting for such a vile individual ? Sometimes I feel like the crazy right just loves evil people.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/21/opinion/blow-newts-southern-strategy.html
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« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2012, 03:20:41 PM »

He's also not a Southerner.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2012, 03:23:16 PM »
« Edited: January 22, 2012, 03:26:12 PM by President Mittens »

So basically Santorum lacked organization, credibility, and time to campaign. Fair enough, even though it's a real shame. I still don't get how republicans could get back on Gingrich. Really, why would anyone (even the most conservative nutter) even consider voting for such a vile individual ? Sometimes I feel like the crazy right just loves evil people.

This is the South Carolina Republican Party we're talking about. The right-wing party, in a state in which it's not uncommon to find people celebrating an act of treason (for the sake of the continued enslavement of other human beings, of course) as a symbol of "patriotism", "freedom", and "liberty."
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memphis
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« Reply #15 on: January 22, 2012, 03:24:49 PM »

^^^^^^^^
The correct answer.
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RI
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« Reply #16 on: January 22, 2012, 03:30:56 PM »


Yeah. The schedule hasn't been very favorable for him. Once we get outside the South, he's got a chance at a comeback.
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