US House Redistricting: New Hampshire

[So the Heroes Fall]

I think this is the only non-At-Large state that doesn't have a thread yet, which isn't a surprise considering how uninteresting it likely is. Both districts are pretty equal already, but if the legislature decided to toss Bass under the bus, it's possible to the make the first a barely McCain district:



McCain won it by 273 votes.

[nclib]

I bet there were be very little movement - only a couple hundred need to be moved. NH Repubs technically could override a Lynch veto, but I doubt Repubs would overwhelmingly agree on a map like you posted.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Dems would probably love that map, since it would give them a close-to-safe district. NH-02 becomes 59-40 Obama.

[Padfoot]

The Dems would probably love that map, since it would give them a close-to-safe district. NH-02 becomes 59-40 Obama.

I dunno.  I think Democrats probably prefer to have both seats as competitive targets every year.

[Vasall des Midas]

I guess it would have been possible (irrespective of partisan control of the state lege) if the seats had split in 2010. As is, non-starter.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Bass won with less than 50% and by under 2 points in a wave year. He's not surviving the entire decade obviously. Of course the legislature may not realize that or care.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hey, actual news. They're going for a least-change map.

[Vasall des Midas]

That pretty much leaves only Kansas, where the House leadership will not hear about putting the map the Senate already approved up for a vote, and doesn't have the votes to approve any other map either. (Though I guess some compromise will eventually emerge... or maybe not. If the thing ends up in court, it's hard to see an outcome much different from the Senate map.) Oh, and the House won't even pass the Senate's map for Senate redistricting.

[Bacon King]

Hey, actual news. They're going for a least-change map.

D+1, if Bass is that worried by it?

That pretty much leaves only Kansas, where the House leadership will not hear about putting the map the Senate already approved up for a vote, and doesn't have the votes to approve any other map either. (Though I guess some compromise will eventually emerge... or maybe not. If the thing ends up in court, it's hard to see an outcome much different from the Senate map.) Oh, and the House won't even pass the Senate's map for Senate redistricting.

Wow, I knew the KS GOP infighting was bad, but not that bad.

[Vasall des Midas]

Bass' district as is is basically winnable for most Democratic politicians in the state and Charlie Bass. Of course he would have liked some help - Guinta's is far more Republican, but not so Republican as to be not a tossup seat.

Funniest part about Kansas is that the State House leadership had no qualms about passing a quite fair and reasonable State House map with bipartisan support. Their policy objective here is to capture a majority of the Senate Republican Caucus, and they don't much care how it's done.

[Torie]

Bass was foolish to ask for too much. Now he will get nothing. Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They've come up with an agreement in the legislature.

Details are expected to be brought out on the state Senate floor l;ater this afternoon, but we've learned that both sides are happy with a deal that has Sanborton, Tilton and Campton moving from Bass's CD 2 to Guinta's to CD1, and Deerfield, Northwood and Center Harbor moving from CD1 to CD2.

Though it doesn't actually change the numbers any. The population deviation is +/-2.

[Torie]

Well I must say the DRA's works splendidly and instantly with no hangs in states with 2 CD's. 

NH-02 gains 10 Pub basis points, and moves from a 2.9% Dem PVI CD to a 2.8% Dem PVI CD (56.1% Obama to 56.0% Obama).

[So the Heroes Fall]

So Bass doesn't survive till the end of the decade, and probably not even this year most likely.

[Torie]

So Bass doesn't survive till the end of the decade, and probably not even this year most likely.

Toss up for this election coming up at the moment. Incumbents who are reasonably competent get about a 3 point tailwind, and Bass fits that bill I think, and so if the election nationally is about even, and Bass's opponent reasonably competent, that to me about equals a toss up.

Longer term, when the Pubs have a downturn, Bass will have to move into the "unusually talented" category, to wit a Gerlach or Dent from PA, to have a good chance of surviving for the decade.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Bass's performance in 2010 was pretty pathetic, and you can't use the excuse he's an incumbent now again since he already had been an incumbent for 12 years and was well known. The district seems to be sick of the guy, and with his circumstances he should be gone in the first non-GOP wave year.

[Torie]

Well, the baseline in 2010 was 3.5% Pub, so if you subtract the 2.9% Dem PVI, that leaves a margin of about 0.6%, which times two, is a 1.2% margin, which is about where Bass was at, with no incumbency advantage manifested for the Dem incumbent (maybe erased because Bass was a former incumbent perhaps, but who knows?). In any event, an incumbency tailwind will have to manifest itself of Bass in a even partisan baseline environment, or yes, he will be gone. We shall see. I don't know the situation on the ground, or how supple Bass is at the moment, and so forth.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

he's corrupt. You can put him in the "defeated" column come november imo. And good riddance too.

[Torie]

he's corrupt. You can put him in the "defeated" column come november imo. And good riddance too.

What's the rap on him?

[Vasall des Midas]

Well, the baseline in 2010 was 3.5% Pub, so if you subtract the 2.9% Dem PVI, that leaves a margin of about 0.6%, which times two, is a 1.2% margin, which is about where Bass was at, with no incumbency advantage manifested for the Dem incumbent (maybe erased because Bass was a former incumbent perhaps, but who knows?).

Because the Dem incumbent was running for Senate.

[Torie]

Well, the baseline in 2010 was 3.5% Pub, so if you subtract the 2.9% Dem PVI, that leaves a margin of about 0.6%, which times two, is a 1.2% margin, which is about where Bass was at, with no incumbency advantage manifested for the Dem incumbent (maybe erased because Bass was a former incumbent perhaps, but who knows?).

Because the Dem incumbent was running for Senate.

That is a very good reason. 

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

he's corrupt. You can put him in the "defeated" column come november imo. And good riddance too.

What's the rap on him?

http://www.crewsmostcorrupt.org/mostcorrupt/entry/charles-bass-report

Normally, I'd never use CREW as a source since they are a far left hack group, but I can't find any other source :/ But I remember in 2010 my dad told me his race tightened up due to rumours of corruption during his previous tenure in Congress.

[Torie]

he's corrupt. You can put him in the "defeated" column come november imo. And good riddance too.

What's the rap on him?

http://www.crewsmostcorrupt.org/mostcorrupt/entry/charles-bass-report

Normally, I'd never use CREW as a source since they are a far left hack group, but I can't find any other source :/ But I remember in 2010 my dad told me his race tightened up due to rumours of corruption during his previous tenure in Congress.

Here is the point-counterpoint in a debate between the candidates. I suppose whether Bass's act was noisome or not depends on whether his $500,000 stock purchase in his nephew's company was a sweet heart purchase or fair market value. The purchase was obviously arranged prior to his leaving office, even if the stock transfer was a few days after he left office. While in office, the tax credit Bass spent a lot of time pushing would have benefited his nephew's company, albeit along with everyone else, so that question becomes important. And I think the burden of proof is on Bass to explain it was all arm's length. I would also like to know if the deal was prearranged while Bass was lobbying to kick in at some point, and if the price changed when the tax credit failed, and whether Bass had an option to buy or a contractual duty to buy.

I don't think Bass would like my questions if I were a reporter. Thanks for the heads up.