UK General Discussion

[Cassius]

Well, congrats to those who had the balls to vote against it (especially the Labour MSP).

[afleitch]

Well, congrats to those who had the balls to vote against it (especially the Labour MSP).

I'm afraid quite literally, she is ball-less.

[Leftbehind]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25034598

Feel the freedom, prosperity and abundance this century has in store for you, workers.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

While I don't want to seem blasé about this, I think there is something wonderfully appropriate about a Maoist cult leader having a slavery ring.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, Maoists. Is it wrong to write 'called it!' in response to this development?

[YL]

Survation (yes, I know) constituency poll in South Thanet: Lab 35, UKIP 30, Con 28, LD 5

The 2010 result was Con 48, Lab 32, LD 15, UKIP 6.  The Tory MP, Laura Sandys, has just announced she's standing down, and this was one of the constituencies UKIP carried in the county elections in May.

The poll was commissioned by a UKIP donor, and it's apparently one of eight.  I don't know whether this was the first one they did, or whether they've just chosen to release an eye-catching one first.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/26/ukip-poll-boost-thanet

[Cassius]

Go on UKIP... You can do it.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Go on UKIP... You can do it.

[You kip if you want to...]

And Labour finally comes out with a shortlist for Falkirk

Pam Duncan - Policy officer at disabled people's charity Inclusion Scotland. Former candidate for Labour's National Policy Forum.

Monica Lennon - Councillor in South Lanarkshire and works in Tom Greatrex's office

Karen Whitefield - Former MSP for Airdrie and Shotts 1999-2011

None were on the original shortlist.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A bad man has died.

Or to be a little more specific, Peter Griffiths - the Conservative MP for Smethwick 1964-66 and Portsmouth North 1979-97 - has died. He was 85. He is best known for running a race-baiting campaign in 1964 that saw him gain Smethwick - and unseat Patrick Gordon Walker, the Shadow Foreign Secretary - against the national swing; for this he was branded a 'parliamentary leper' by Harold Wilson. He spent that parliament acting like a racist prick (while denying that he was one) and was defeated in 1966 by the Shakespearean actor and massive ham Andrew Faulds. He was later based in Portsmouth and was a backbencher of no consequence during the Thatcher and Major governments, eventually losing his seat on a huge swing in the 1997 landslide.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tory selection procedures are weird, but it's probably fair to say that Tim Yeo (MP for South Suffolk since 1983) has been half-deselected.

[minionofmidas]

Tory selection procedures are weird, but it's probably fair to say that Tim Yeo (MP for South Suffolk since 1983) has been half-deselected.

Details?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tory selection procedures are weird, but it's probably fair to say that Tim Yeo (MP for South Suffolk since 1983) has been half-deselected.

Details?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25165546

[YL]

Tory selection procedures are weird, but it's probably fair to say that Tim Yeo (MP for South Suffolk since 1983) has been half-deselected.

Details?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25165546

How does this compare with the attempt to deselect Crispin Blunt in Reigate?  IIRC Blunt failed in some initial ballot but then survived (comfortably) a vote of the membership.  The BBC article sounds like Yeo may have failed the latter stage, but could still stand in the selection process.

I wonder how much this has to do with Yeo being a relatively "green" Tory?  He does have other "issues"...

[YL]

Tory selection procedures are weird, but it's probably fair to say that Tim Yeo (MP for South Suffolk since 1983) has been half-deselected.

Details?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25165546

How does this compare with the attempt to deselect Crispin Blunt in Reigate?  IIRC Blunt failed in some initial ballot but then survived (comfortably) a vote of the membership.  The BBC article sounds like Yeo may have failed the latter stage, but could still stand in the selection process.

An article on the Guardian website makes it clear that this is just the first step (the one which Blunt failed) with the executive of the constituency party.  Yeo can still ask for a ballot of the local membership.

[YL]

Two more Survation constituency polls (commissioned by a UKIP donor):

Great Grimsby
Lab 40 UKIP 22 Con 20 LD 13
(2010 Lab 33 Con 31 LD 22 UKIP 6 BNP 5)

Dudley North
Lab 45 Con 25 UKIP 23 LD 2
(2010 Lab 39 Con 37 LD 11 UKIP 9 BNP 5)

[Cassius]

UKIP seem to be holding up rather well

And unsurprisingly, the UK education system is rated rather poorly.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Observer going with the Labour left being annoyed with Blairites being included in the election team, just weeks after the papers going with a 'cull of the Blairites' reshuffle.

[afleitch]

Ah crap.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/08/wont-go-back-to-creationist-zoo-bristol

[You kip if you want to...]

Last batch of these UKIP polls

Folkestone & Hythe
Tory 35% (-14)
UKIP 28% (+23)
Labour 21% (+10)
LD 10% (-20)

Bognor Regis & Littlehampton
Tory 37% (-14)
UKIP 27% (+20)
Labour 20% (+6)
LD 11% (-13)

Crewe & Nantwich (LAB gain from CON)
Labour 46% (+12)
Tory 33% (-13)
UKIP 11% (+8)
LD 6% (-9)

Great Yarmouth (LAB gain from CON)
Labour 37% (+4)
UKIP 30% (+25)
Tory 28% (-15)
LD 4% (-10)

[Cassius]

Let the bastards bleed till they can take no more.

[YL]

They said there would be 8, so there should be one more to come.  Maybe they're saving one with a UKIP lead (Boston & Skegness, perhaps) for last.

Overall they seem so bad for the Tories as to be difficult to believe given the national polls, even most of Survation's ones.  Perhaps the Tories are holding up better elsewhere, but where?  That said, I suppose Crewe & Nantwich, probably the nearest thing to a conventional marginal in the list, must be a candidate for an above average swing to Labour because of byelection unwind.

They're terrible for the Lib Dems too (remember, they were actually reported to be targeting Folkestone & Hythe in 2005) but that's more in line with the national polls.

[afleitch]

To say I don't care about constituency polls carried out eighteen months before a general election is an understatement.

[You kip if you want to...]

First Gentleman of Denmark, Stephen Kinnock-Thorning-Schmidt is thinking of going for Aberavon.

Interesting timing: an election due in Denmark in 2015 as well (probably sooner). Maybe the couple have got Helle down as a one-term wonder.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/12/17/helle-thorning-schmidt-stephen-kinnock_n_4461847.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rock solid seat. It's basically Port Talbot (home to one of the largest steelworks in Europe) and nearby ex-mining valleys, so elections have a habit of being purely ritualistic. Currently held by Dr Hywel Francis, a former Communist and noted historian of the Labour movement in South Wales. Like Stephen Kinnock he has a famous father; Dai Francis the leader of the South Wales Miners (back when that was a powerful post indeed) during the 60s and 70s.