UK General Discussion

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Labour'vve sent out a "Nick Clegg, in his own words" kind've this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prWxckyxjyY

I laughed.

[YL]

A couple of nasty polls for Labour.  Neither is that good for the Tories either in terms of vote share (UKIP are the real beneficiaries) but given how bad they are for Labour that's enough to put the Tories ahead.

ICM: Con 33 Lab 31 UKIP 15 LD 13
Ashcroft: Con 34 Lab 32 UKIP 15 LD 9

[afleitch]

A couple of nasty polls for Labour.  Neither is that good for the Tories either in terms of vote share (UKIP are the real beneficiaries) but given how bad they are for Labour that's enough to put the Tories ahead.

ICM: Con 33 Lab 31 UKIP 15 LD 13
Ashcroft: Con 34 Lab 32 UKIP 15 LD 9

Even before these polls Labour's lead has been zig-zagging downwards over the past year. The Tories are in a good position 1 year out.

[Cassius]

ICM isn't that highly regarded as a pollster is it (or am I thinking of Ipsos)? But, anyway, if that poll is somewhat accurate, then that's obviously not a particularly good sign for Labour (although, this is only one poll, and we could well get another poll that puts Labour a few points ahead), especially since over the last year or so they've become bogged down at around 35-37. Still, it's not exactly brilliant news for the Tories either.

[You kip if you want to...]

I think Labour's slump is partly due to the Euros and the Greens eating into Labour's VI (Ipsos has them on 8%). Hopefully it's given Brewer's Green a bit of a kick though.

34 (-4) Lab
31 (nc) Con
11 (-4) UKIP
9 (nc) LD
8 (+5) Greens

[afleitch]

The longer Labour don't acknowledge Ed Miliband as a problem the better as far as I am concerned.

[Silent Hunter]

they've become bogged down at around 35-37. Still, it's not exactly brilliant news for the Tories either.

Labour won on 36 in 2005.

[YL]

The longer Labour don't acknowledge Ed Miliband as a problem the better as far as I am concerned.

Yes, it's going to be really great for Labour to get themselves embroiled in a leadership crisis.  Anyway, who would be better?  Balls?  LOL.  Burnham?  Not convinced, and he didn't set the world on fire in the last leadership election.  Cooper?  Can be good, but would suffer from who she's married to.

And I would point out that when Ed M actually gets himself noticed (e.g. conference speeches, or when the Mail went for his father) he tends to do quite well.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The longer Labour don't acknowledge Ed Miliband as a problem the better as far as I am concerned.

Yes, it's going to be really great for Labour to get themselves embroiled in a leadership crisis.  Anyway, who would be better?  Balls?  LOL.  Burnham?  Not convinced, and he didn't set the world on fire in the last leadership election.  Cooper?  Can be good, but would suffer from who she's married to.

And I would point out that when Ed M actually gets himself noticed (e.g. conference speeches, or when the Mail went for his father) he tends to do quite well.

I think Ed has the most potential benefit from debates. At the moment, no one really knows who the "real Ed" is - just that he's kind of dorky. If he holds his own in the head to head with Cameron, that could solidify Labour's lead. For an American parallel, look at Romney's boost after the first debate - it was the first time since he had won the leadership to control his own image and attack people's preconceptions of him.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/14/ukip-lost-one-in-10-county-councillors-seats-2013


lol

[afleitch]

Mackintosh's Glasgow School of Art is on fire. Quite serious and very sad. I work a few blocks away and the smoke is coming through the air con

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Mackintosh's Glasgow School of Art is on fire. Quite serious and very sad. I work a few blocks away and the smoke is coming through the air con

Any update?

[afleitch]

Mackintosh's Glasgow School of Art is on fire. Quite serious and very sad. I work a few blocks away and the smoke is coming through the air con

Any update?

Fire started in the basement. The structure of the building internally is quality, untreated wood (and the smell of the smoke was absolutely beautiful in a macabre way). The cavities of the building allowed it to spread fast into the roof and out the back. There were flames coming out of the front of the building; they shattered the windows. The Library, the most beautiful and ornate room in the building is likely destroyed. The damage is probably to a third to a half of the structure. You can't get close to it, but internally it looks gutted.

The air spaces, the light spaces, the wood and everything about the building made it a perfect storm for a fire to take hold.

People are in tears. I don't blame them.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

At least no one was physically injured, but this really was the worst possible time for such a fire with senior students setting up their work to be judged to see whether they were good enough to get the degree they'd been seeking.  Hopefully, they all documented their work before it went up in flames and smoke, but I have the sad feeling there will be some who will need to redo much of their hard work.

[afleitch]

At least no one was physically injured, but this really was the worst possible time for such a fire with senior students setting up their work to be judged to see whether they were good enough to get the degree they'd been seeking.  Hopefully, they all documented their work before it went up in flames and smoke, but I have the sad feeling there will be some who will need to redo much of their hard work.

It is tragic. It's ironic that it was probably art pieces themselves that caused the fire. A projector overheated and exploded setting fire to foam. All were art pieces.

[afleitch]

[YL]

Lord Ashcroft has released a big "marginals poll".  This is slightly different to the usual style of these: he selected 26 constituencies and polled over 1000 in each, so there are results for each constituency, and if you want to look at overall figures the sample size is unusually large.  Whether the sampling is any good I don't know.

The overall result gives a 6.5% swing from Con to Lab, much better for Labour than the recent ComRes marginals poll.  Some of the details look a bit weird, and the wisdom of doing this in the middle of an EU election might be questioned; there are some very high UKIP scores, although he doesn't have them in the lead anywhere.

Amber Valley: Lab 41 (+4) Con 29 (-10) UKIP 20 (+18) LD 6 (-8)
Broxtowe: Lab 42 (+4) Con 31 (-8) UKIP 14 (+12) LD 8 (-9)
Gogledd Caerdydd: Lab 41 (+4) Con 34 (-3) LD 8 (-10) UKIP 8 (+6) Plaid 7 (+4)
Hendon: Lab 41 (-1) Con 38 (-4) UKIP 13 (+11) LD 5 (-7)
Great Yarmouth: Con 32 (-11) Lab 31 (-2) UKIP 29 (+24) LD 5 (-9)
Lancaster & Fleetwood: Lab 45 (+10) Con 28 (-8) UKIP 12 (+10) LD 7 (-12)
Morecambe & Lunesdale: Lab 39 (-1) Con 36 (-6) UKIP 16 (+12) LD 7 (-6)
North Warwickshire: Lab 39 (-1) Con 33 (-7) UKIP 19 (+16) LD 5 (-7)
Sherwood: Lab 41 (+2) Con 29 (-10) UKIP 21 (+18) LD 5 (-10)
Stockton South: Lab 44 (+6) Con 34 (-5) UKIP 14 (+11) LD 6 (-9)
South Thanet: Con 31 (-17) Lab 31 (nc) UKIP 26 (+20) LD 8 (-7)
Thurrock: Lab 36 (-1) UKIP 31 (+24) Con 24 (-13) LD 5 (-6)
Waveney: Lab 38 (-1) Con 31 (-9) UKIP 21 (+16) LD 6 (-7)
Wolverhampton SW: Lab 46 (+7) Con 31 (-10) UKIP 15 (+11) LD 4 (-12)

Bolton W: Lab 41 (+2) Con 30 (-8) UKIP 19 (+15) LD 6 (-11)
Brum Edgbaston: Lab 41 (nc) Con 33 (-5) UKIP 15 (+13) LD 6 (-9)
Derby N: Lab 41 (+8) Con 26 (-6) UKIP 20 (+18) LD 8 (-20)
Dudley N: Lab 39 (nc) UKIP 29 (+21) Con 25 (-12) LD 4 (-7)
Halifax: Lab 41 (+4) Con 27 (-7) UKIP 19 (+17) LD 8 (-11)
Hampstead & Kilburn: Lab 42 (+9) Con 33 (nc) LD 15 (-16) UKIP 4 (+3)
Great Grimsby: Lab 37 (+4) UKIP 25 (+19) Con 23 (-8) LD 9 (-13)
Morley & Outwood: Lab 39 (+1) Con 27 (-8) UKIP 22 (+19) LD 6 (-11)
Southampton Itchen: Lab 35 (-2) Con 27 (-9) UKIP 25 (+21) LD 10 (-11)
Telford: Lab 38 (-1) Con 28 (-8) UKIP 25 (+19) LD 4 (-11)
Walsall N: Lab 37 (nc) UKIP 32 (+27) Con 22 (-12) LD 5 (-8)
Wirral S: Lab 43 (+2) Con 30 (-9) UKIP 15 (+12) LD 6 (-11)

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/05/conservative-labour-battleground/

[afleitch]

I remember when a marginals poll in Sep 2009 said we'd get a majority of 70

The problem with marginals polls (which bites bums on election night too) is that you need a national comparison. This poll took place over 6 weeks with Tory marginals polled first which as Well's says was when the national polls showed a swing of 5.5 to Labour. In Labour's target seats (Tory held) in this poll, it's 5.5. So it's not showing anything the national polls aren't showing us.

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-27561917

Liberal Democratic Candidates Jackie Porter (Running to be an MP from Winchester, Currently a Member of Hampshire County Council from Itchen Valley) and Ros Kayes (Running in West Dorset), have called for Liberal Democratic Party leader and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg to step down as Party Leader.

Porter in a statement to the BBC stated that "we have to make decisions to save the party, not the person", while Kayes, who along with Porter is one of two hundred party figures who have put their name to an open letter asking Clegg to step down, stated that "If one was to ask the general public what they didn't like about the coalition, they would say they don't like Nick Clegg"

After Thursday's calamitous results in local elections, where the Liberal Democrats lost over 300 Councilors.  the co-chair of the Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Committee for Health and Social Care, John Pugh, said he had canvassed a dozen-backbenchers (though he didn't say who) and went to state that "The High Command is in danger of seeming like generals at the Somme, repeatedly sending others over the top while being safely ensconced in Westminister and claiming the carnage is inevitable" adding that "the time had passed for a policy of misguided stoicism".

[YL]

Apparently the Sunday Times has a story that two Lib Dem MPs, John Pugh (Southport) and Adrian Sanders (Torbay) have called for Clegg to resign.

[Simfan34]

I read about that- thankfully no serious damage, yes? The building is intact, for the most part?

[Nhoj]

I read about that- thankfully no real damage, yes?

Likely quite of bit of smoke and water damage, though i suppose stone holds up ok.

[Silent Hunter]

Most of the art (a good deal coursework) seems to have survived as well.

[Simfan34]

Good to hear. Anyway, if Clegg resigns (why?), who might replace him?

Poll shows he might lose his seat.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Good to hear. Anyway, if Clegg resigns (why?), who might replace him?

Poll shows he might lose his seat.

Cable as a caretaker, or else Danny Alexander.

Clegg would probably remain as DPM, but the new leader would carry the party's re-election campaign.