UK General Discussion

[Leftbehind]

...and behind the pack:

TNS BMRB: CON 28% (-3), LAB 44% (+1), LDEM 8% (-1), OTH 19% (+2)

[bore]

Labour seriously need to sort out their strategy.

Anyway, there's been a fair bit of polling over the weekend:

Survation CON 29% (-1), LAB 41% (+1), LDEM 10% (n/c), UKIP 12%.
YouGov     CON 34% (-1), LAB 43% (+2), LDEM 8% (-1), UKIP 8%.
Opinium     CON 30% (-2), LAB 42% (+2), LDEM 8% (-2), UKIP 10%.
ComRes     CON 35% (+2), LAB 39% (-3), LDEM 10% (n/c), UKIP 8%.

The YouGov also had some hypotheticals:

Under Cameron, Miliband, Clegg
LAB 41%, CON 34%, LDEM 9%, OTH 16%

Under Cameron, Miliband, Cable
LAB 39%, CON 34%, LDEM 12%, OTH 16%

Under Johnson, Miliband, Clegg
CON 38%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, OTH 15%

Under Johnson, Miliband, Cable
CON 39%, LAB 35%, LDEM 11%, OTH 15%

It really seems that the whole lib dem party have been tarnished by the coalition, not just the lib dems under Clegg. Their grand plan of replacing Clegg before the election probably won't work out so well for them then. Shame.

[Leftbehind]

It's unsurprising really given how loyal they've all been to Clegg, although ICM seem to disagree - as ever - with YouGov's (and Opinium's) findings.

Topline figures are:
ICM: LAB 41% (+2), CON 31% (-3), LDEM 14% (-1), OTH 14% (+2)

With the Cable hypothetical producing:
LAB 38% (-3%) CON 30% (-1), LDEM 19% (+5), OTH 13% (-1)

Worth noting that the last time ICM shown a 10-point Labour lead was in 2003.

[You kip if you want to...]

It's unsurprising really given how loyal they've all been to Clegg, although ICM seem to disagree - as ever - with YouGov's (and Opinium's) findings.

Topline figures are:
ICM: LAB 41% (+2), CON 31% (-3), LDEM 14% (-1), OTH 14% (+2)

With the Cable hypothetical producing:
LAB 38% (-3%) CON 30% (-1), LDEM 19% (+5), OTH 13% (-1)

Worth noting that the last time ICM shown a 10-point Labour lead was in 2003.

ICM have consistently shown dodgy LD numbers anyway. And new leaders always seem like a good idea, but it never works out as well as the party originally thought.

[Sibboleth]

ICM play with their figures before publishing them.

[YL]

And new leaders always seem like a good idea, but it never works out as well as the party originally thought.

I think the Tories dumping Th*tch*r in 1990 might be an exception there.  And, oddly enough, the Lib Dems replacing Ming Campbell with you-know-who might be too; they were in a pretty bad way.

However, these hypothetical leader polls are dodgy, and have a poor reputation.  Someone asked how they'd vote if the leaders were Cameron, Miliband and Cable is effectively being prompted to think of the Lib Dems.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

ICM play with their figures before publishing them.

On a dartboard?

[Leftbehind]

It'll certainly be interesting to see the ICM figures without the turnout & don't-know-reallocation adjustments!

Although I tend to believe YouGov, Opinium etc with the Cable effect. Clegg is so toxic (in a way that few other past examples can compare to) that any change is likely to get them a couple of points, but not lead them to any meaningful recovery like shown in ICM (as he and his party are still significantly contaminated).

[Sibboleth]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/9564006/In-full-Police-log-detailing-Andrew-Mitchells-pleb-rant.html

Hilarious

[State Comptroller Atkins]

I'm not sure if it was ICM or ComRes, but there was a poll released during the 2010 campaign showing the SNP on 0%....in Scotland.

[You kip if you want to...]

Clegg is so toxic (in a way that few other past examples can compare to)

They're be books and all kinds done on it once he's gone. He gets actual aggressive hate from people rather than just high annoyance that the likes of Brown and Major got.

[Leftbehind]

"There are a group of people who simply aren't interested in parties that get into power to take difficult decisions.

They are a group of people who like to throw stones from the sidelines; who like to be associated with causes where there's never a difficult decision to be made; who don't actually like parties being in government; and who always scream betrayal when any party goes into government.

In other words, people who like protest, but not the reality of power. And I make no apology in saying to those people - we are not the party for you.

If people want just protest politics, if they want a sort of 'I don't like the world, I want to get off' party, they've got one. It's called the Labour Party."

Quote from Clegg in an interview to regional news.

A listen to What the World Is Waiting For is in order.

[Sibboleth]

Amazing.

[Leftbehind]

It'll certainly be interesting to see the ICM figures without the turnout & don't-know-reallocation adjustments!

Before adjustments
LAB 44%, CON 30%, LDEM 11%, OTH 14%

After turnout:
LAB 44%, CON 31%, LDEM 11%, OTH 14%

After D/K allocation:
LAB 41%, CON 31%, LDEM 14%, OTH 13%

[YL]

Jeremy Browne, perhaps the Lib Dems' most right-wing MP, also insulted lots of people who used to vote Lib Dem and told them to vote Labour.

At the same time, the Lib Dems seem to be desparate to say that people shouldn't vote Labour because the party contains Ed Balls; the other Ed hardly gets a mention.

[Sibboleth]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/sep/26/lib-dems-speech-digested-crace

[Leftbehind]

 

[Sibboleth]

It's just been announced that Malcolm Wicks, Labour MP for Croydon North since 1997 (and Croydon North West 1992-1997), has died aged 65. He was a Social Policy academic before he was a politician and was a minister in the Blair and Brown governments.

[Simfan34]

Labour safe seat I assume?

[State Comptroller Atkins]

It's just been announced that Malcolm Wicks, Labour MP for Croydon North since 1997, has died aged 65. He was a Social Policy academic before he was a politician and was a minister in the Blair and Brown governments.

RIP.

Labour safe seat I assume?

Taste, taste, taste.

[London Man]

Rest in Peace.

[Sibboleth]

Wick's obit: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/sep/30/malcolm-wicks

As you can see, he's quite a loss.

[Sibboleth]

On a lighter note now...

Your Tory Party Chairman Name should be a tabula rasa for public trust. Mine, "William Coles", is perfect. Who wouldn't vote for William Coles? Good old Colesy. Firm but fair. Confident but reasonable. Strong in a crisis. Just looking at my new name on the page, I know I would implement a kindly yet sensible immigration policy.

"Grant Shapps" would be another good one. Short, brisk, efficient, not a syllable wasted. There's a guy who'll scale down the red tape.

"Michael Green" would also work well. Although "Grant Shapps" just edges it – according to the current Tory chairman, anyway, who chose to be Grant Shapps for politics and (until 2008) Michael Green for business purposes.

Last week, photographs emerged of Grant Shapps wearing a badge identifying him as Michael Green at a 2004 internet conference in Las Vegas. Some people have said the photo raises questions about his credibility, but I can't see what's sinister about a major government figure grinning from behind a false name at a Las Vegas conference while simultaneously applying to be an MP in another country under a different name entirely.

Full article

[London Man]

Interesting. More than one politician has used their middle name for politics - Leonard James Callaghan for example.

[You kip if you want to...]

Interesting. More than one politician has used their middle name for politics - Leonard James Callaghan for example.

I think Prime Minister James Brown's got the best one.