UK General Discussion

[minionofmidas]

You need to update your signature, Andrew.

[You kip if you want to...]

Good on Ed with going for the old "Are you better off than you were 5 years ago?" at PMQs. Been saying since day one that that's exactly how he should approach it.

[Insula Dei]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/feb/14/harold-wilson-roy-hattersley-wrong-about

Thoughts?

[Silent Hunter]

139 MPs voting against their own Leader in the HoC must surely be a record, right?

For the modern era, yes (there were bigger revolts over the Corn Laws). It's actually been done twice - once for the Conservatives over gay marriage and once for Labour over the Iraq War. The latter one was a whipped vote, so it's arguably more significant.

[You kip if you want to...]

Mori puts the PM at the same level of (un)popularity as Brown was at this point in his premiership... but y'know incumbent swing back and all that.

And, any comment from my fellow Atlasers on Ed's 10p announcement?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/feb/14/harold-wilson-roy-hattersley-wrong-about

Thoughts?

There's nothing too surprising there, but it's interesting all the same. Wilson had an (unfair) reputation as a factionalist hack before he became leader, and an (unfair) reputation as an unusually dodgy career politician after 1966 or so and then as that plus 'paranoid old man' after 1974. The main reason for the first two was that he couldn't lie convincingly, which is an awful disability for a politician. Generally he tried to get around that by half-truths, which was dangerous because it's easier to prove those than actual lies. As for the third, well, we now know that he was quite right to be paranoid.

[You kip if you want to...]

I'd put a print screen of their front page of their cover to demonstrate, but it's beyond bad taste. Just when I thought The Sun couldn't sink any lower.

[Leftbehind]

It's not 'sinking' when they've long had a history of doing it (and they're not alone) - there was even evidence given at Levison about it.

[Silent Hunter]

Printing bikini shots of murder victim was done by all the red tops today.

[Leftbehind]

A fitting testament to these great institutions of journalism.

[Silent Hunter]

You know if this was a British case, contempt of court proceedings would be happening now.

[You kip if you want to...]

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http://labourlist.org/2013/02/miliband-will-force-commons-vote-on-mansion-tax-to-show-whose-side-lib-dems-are-on/

[Frodo]

So much for Cam's referendum bounce.

It's too bad the election isn't for another two years. 

[You kip if you want to...]

So much for Cam's referendum bounce.

It's too bad the election isn't for another two years. 

You're missing the point

[afleitch]

So much for Cam's referendum bounce.

It's too bad the election isn't for another two years. 

You're missing the point

Not really. Labour had leads of 20% at this time during the 1987-1992 parliament, leads of about 5% at this time between 1983 and 1987 and leads of about 15% at this time between 1979 and 1983. Tory governments have a tendency to be deeply unpopular in mid-term.

[Leftbehind]

Not really. Labour had leads of 20% at this time during the 1987-1992 parliament, leads of about 5% at this time between 1983 and 1987 and leads of about 15% at this time between 1979 and 1983. Tory governments have a tendency to be deeply unpopular in mid-term.

These are far from normal mid-term leads. The only time Labour had sustained double-digit leads were in 1981, which the SDP-split seen the end of and 1990, with the ousting of Thatcher for Major and the disowning of the Poll Tax combating that (and those were leads before shy Tory was accounted for).

Now, Labour's support could fracture back to the Liberals/elsewhere if they go into 2015 taking them for granted (ie offer another Blairite platform), and the Tories could narrow things with Boris Johnson, but the fact that the Liberals have completely alienated the leftists in their party suggests Labour's leads are more robust (in many ways as important as the 81 split) than previously.  

[afleitch]

Not really. Labour had leads of 20% at this time during the 1987-1992 parliament, leads of about 5% at this time between 1983 and 1987 and leads of about 15% at this time between 1979 and 1983. Tory governments have a tendency to be deeply unpopular in mid-term.

These are far from normal mid-term leads. The only time Labour had sustained double-digit leads were in 1981, which the SDP-split seen the end of and 1990, with the ousting of Thatcher for Major and the disowning of the Poll Tax combating that (and those were leads before shy Tory was accounted for).

Now, Labour's support could fracture back to the Liberals/elsewhere if they go into 2015 taking them for granted (ie offer another Blairite platform), and the Tories could narrow things with Boris Johnson, but the fact that the Liberals have completely alienated the leftists in their party suggests Labour's leads are more robust (in many ways as important as the 81 split) than previously.  

1. Never underestimate the Lib Dem incumbency factor and their ability to recover. The Lib Dem shares we see in polls right now would be the lowest since 1970; that result is unlikely. Just look at what's happening in Eastleigh; rallying the anti-Tory vote yet again.

2. We have a high UKIP vote share. There's no guarantee they will be standing in every seat or that such a vote share will be sustained at a national election in what will always be a Labour v Tory contest.

[Leftbehind]

1. Never underestimate the Lib Dem incumbency factor and their ability to recover. The Lib Dem shares we see in polls right now would be the lowest since 1970; that result is unlikely. Just look at what's happening in Eastleigh; rallying the anti-Tory vote yet again.

2. We have a high UKIP vote share. There's no guarantee they will be standing in every seat or that such a vote share will be sustained at a national election in what will always be a Labour v Tory contest.

1. You say that, but when's the last time the Liberals have been in power, and therefore had to throw their lot in with a side? Exactly. Their party's benefited enormously on appealing to both anti-Labour and anti-Tories throughout the country for decades, and you only need to look at the locals to see Eastleigh isn't remotely representative of the country: they've been rock-solid there whilst receiving their lowest national equivalents since 1980.

2. I think you can guarantee most, as the party's bankrolled by toffs. I imagine they might stand down in constituencies where there's a right-wing enough candidate for them, but Farage has been making noises recently there will be no pact.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eastleigh is one of the few places left where they still totally dominate local politics; they've built up a very strong brand there, one that can survive the trainwreck that The-LibDems-In-Government have basically been and (probably) one that can survive the criminal conviction (and outing as a total louse) of their sitting Member on top of that. And even if they do lose the by-election, they'll probably take the seat back at the General Election. Of course (and like most LibDem seats) in terms of government formation Eastleigh is only relevant in terms of a Tory minority or Tory majority; it has no bearing on whether or not Labour can win. The minority LibDem seats where Labour are competitive are mostly going to fall, incumbency be damned.

I also wonder how strong some of the second generation incumbents in their safer seats (facing Tory opposition) are.

[Leftbehind]

Indeed, when I think of the threatened back of a taxi rump of remaining Liberals, an Eastleigh MP is in there.

[Supersonic]

It's amazing that half of the right-wing party voted for gay marriage.

Eh, a lot of the UK Convervatives are probably similar to those New England Republicans who are now Independents who vote Democratic.

I wouldn't be so quick to assume that many Tories would vote Democratic.

I was at a Conservative Future (under-30's wing) election hustings in London the other day, and the topic of 'who would you support in the 2012 US election' came up. All the candidates said they would have supported Romney or Gary Johnson. One drunk girl in the audience shouted 'I LOVE OBAMA', then the vast majority of the room shouted 'SHAME' and 'UNSOUND' in response. I overheard the person in front of me say 'how can you be a Conservative and a Democ-RAT'? 

Obviously this is just one little snippet, but Conservatives are not like-for-like Democrats, although I would agree that there is significant overlap on social issues.

[Smid]

It's amazing that half of the right-wing party voted for gay marriage.

Eh, a lot of the UK Convervatives are probably similar to those New England Republicans who are now Independents who vote Democratic.

I wouldn't be so quick to assume that many Tories would vote Democratic.

I was at a Conservative Future (under-30's wing) election hustings in London the other day, and the topic of 'who would you support in the 2012 US election' came up. All the candidates said they would have supported Romney or Gary Johnson. One drunk girl in the audience shouted 'I LOVE OBAMA', then the vast majority of the room shouted 'SHAME' and 'UNSOUND' in response. I overheard the person in front of me say 'how can you be a Conservative and a Democ-RAT'? 

Obviously this is just one little snippet, but Conservatives are not like-for-like Democrats, although I would agree that there is significant overlap on social issues.

In my experience, the members of the youth wing of conservative parties try to prove that they're the most right-wing person in the room. I think in many cases it's just an act - they move into the grown-up wing of the party and stop making fools of themselves.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

See the career of John Bercow as a case in point...

[Simfan34]

It's amazing that half of the right-wing party voted for gay marriage.

Eh, a lot of the UK Convervatives are probably similar to those New England Republicans who are now Independents who vote Democratic.

I wouldn't be so quick to assume that many Tories would vote Democratic.

I was at a Conservative Future (under-30's wing) election hustings in London the other day, and the topic of 'who would you support in the 2012 US election' came up. All the candidates said they would have supported Romney or Gary Johnson. One drunk girl in the audience shouted 'I LOVE OBAMA', then the vast majority of the room shouted 'SHAME' and 'UNSOUND' in response. I overheard the person in front of me say 'how can you be a Conservative and a Democ-RAT'? 

Obviously this is just one little snippet, but Conservatives are not like-for-like Democrats, although I would agree that there is significant overlap on social issues.

This is why I love Britain.

[YL]

Indeed, when I think of the threatened back of a taxi rump of remaining Liberals, an Eastleigh MP is in there.

Who else is in your taxi?

(Assume capacity 6, as in 1951/55/59.)