UK General Discussion

[Goodwin]

Some sketchy reports from twitter/facebook, and Sky News, are now suggesting a mosque in Essex has been attacked. Sky News are also reporting clashes in Woolwich with EDL and Police.

 http://news.sky.com/story/1094420/live-updates-woolwich-terrorist-attack

[Goodwin]

Two arrested after RAF Typhoon jets divert a PIA B777 to Stansted.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22658979

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Harrow craziness update: the heroic, noble and utterly principled Independent Labour group have formed a coalition with the Tories.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The colourful former Glasgow MP (Provan 1987-97, Baillieston 1997-2005) Jimmy Wray has died aged 78. Or possibly 75.

[Goodwin]

I laughed at the Daily Mail's front page headline today:

"After Woolwich horror, MPs demand action from internet giants - Now Force Google to Block Sick Websites of Hatred"

Yes, how about we start with the DM's website?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2330594/Now-force-Google-block-sick-websites-hatred-After-Woolwich-horror-MPs-demand-action-internet-giants.html

[Leftbehind]

Are you proposing the EVILS of state regulation!111!

[Phony Moderate]

Apparently there are now enough anti-Cameron backbenchers to trigger a confidence vote but they aren't ready yet.

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/26/tory-backbenchers-reportedly-tell-cameron-he-may-have-to-break-up-the-coalition-to-remain-leader/

[You kip if you want to...]

Apparently there are now enough anti-Cameron backbenchers to trigger a confidence vote but they aren't ready yet.

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/26/tory-backbenchers-reportedly-tell-cameron-he-may-have-to-break-up-the-coalition-to-remain-leader/

Probably too close to the summer recess for them.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Apparently there are now enough anti-Cameron backbenchers to trigger a confidence vote but they aren't ready yet.

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/26/tory-backbenchers-reportedly-tell-cameron-he-may-have-to-break-up-the-coalition-to-remain-leader/

Probably too close to the summer recess for them.

I hope they gain some momentum soon, the hilarity that would ensue would be priceless.

[You kip if you want to...]

Apparently there are now enough anti-Cameron backbenchers to trigger a confidence vote but they aren't ready yet.

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/26/tory-backbenchers-reportedly-tell-cameron-he-may-have-to-break-up-the-coalition-to-remain-leader/

Probably too close to the summer recess for them.

I hope they gain some momentum soon, the hilarity that would ensue would be priceless.

He'd win a ballot, surely?

[Lurker]

Apparently there are now enough anti-Cameron backbenchers to trigger a confidence vote but they aren't ready yet.

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/26/tory-backbenchers-reportedly-tell-cameron-he-may-have-to-break-up-the-coalition-to-remain-leader/

Probably too close to the summer recess for them.

I hope they gain some momentum soon, the hilarity that would ensue would be priceless.

He'd win a ballot, surely?

Could any of you Brits explain why Tory backbenchers (and much of the party's base) hate Cameron so much? I mean, other than on some "moral issues" like gay marriage he has been pretty right-wing, particularly when you consider the coalition with the Lib-Dems. Is the hate just due to anti-EU obsessiveness, or are there other reasons as well?

[politicus]

Is the Tory party in its present incarnation fundamentally impossible to lead?

[DC Al Fine]

Apparently there are now enough anti-Cameron backbenchers to trigger a confidence vote but they aren't ready yet.

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/26/tory-backbenchers-reportedly-tell-cameron-he-may-have-to-break-up-the-coalition-to-remain-leader/

Probably too close to the summer recess for them.

I hope they gain some momentum soon, the hilarity that would ensue would be priceless.

He'd win a ballot, surely?

Could any of you Brits explain why Tory backbenchers (and much of the party's base) hate Cameron so much? I mean, other than on some "moral issues" like gay marriage he has been pretty right-wing, particularly when you consider the coalition with the Lib-Dems. Is the hate just due to anti-EU obsessiveness, or are there other reasons as well?

Immigration?

[You kip if you want to...]

Apparently there are now enough anti-Cameron backbenchers to trigger a confidence vote but they aren't ready yet.

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/26/tory-backbenchers-reportedly-tell-cameron-he-may-have-to-break-up-the-coalition-to-remain-leader/

Probably too close to the summer recess for them.

I hope they gain some momentum soon, the hilarity that would ensue would be priceless.

He'd win a ballot, surely?

Could any of you Brits explain why Tory backbenchers (and much of the party's base) hate Cameron so much? I mean, other than on some "moral issues" like gay marriage he has been pretty right-wing, particularly when you consider the coalition with the Lib-Dems. Is the hate just due to anti-EU obsessiveness, or are there other reasons as well?

He's out-of-touch with large sections of his party.

He's never been popular with them, but they turned a blind eye when polling was good 2005-2011.

Is the Tory party in its present incarnation fundamentally impossible to lead?

It has been since round-and-about Black Wednesday.

[Leftbehind]

Is the Tory party in its present incarnation fundamentally impossible to lead?

Pretty much. The backbenchers are the UK's tea party, mostly demanding EU withdrawal and opposing any social liberalism or austerity impacting upon the military; regardless of whether they're in a coalition or not.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The securocrats are back.

[Leftbehind]

Aye, but if steady Eddy doesn't do any daft deals we've no worries.

[Blue3]

Has the law regarding royal succession been passed yet? Kate's baby is due soon, right?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Has the law regarding royal succession been passed yet? Kate's baby is due soon, right?

The UK law has,and so has that of Canada.  A few minor realms have stated that their law already calls for the heir to be whoever British law says it should be so they don't need to pass new law.  New Zealand and Australia are the principal laggards here, tho to be fair unless Kate has fraternal twins of opposite sex, it doesn't have to be done before the birth.

[Silent Hunter]

Kate's not having twins.

[Supersonic]

Apparently there are now enough anti-Cameron backbenchers to trigger a confidence vote but they aren't ready yet.

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/26/tory-backbenchers-reportedly-tell-cameron-he-may-have-to-break-up-the-coalition-to-remain-leader/

Probably too close to the summer recess for them.

I hope they gain some momentum soon, the hilarity that would ensue would be priceless.

He'd win a ballot, surely?

Could any of you Brits explain why Tory backbenchers (and much of the party's base) hate Cameron so much? I mean, other than on some "moral issues" like gay marriage he has been pretty right-wing, particularly when you consider the coalition with the Lib-Dems. Is the hate just due to anti-EU obsessiveness, or are there other reasons as well?

Yeah, there are the moral issues as you mentioned. If you ask the Tory base, they will in no way say he has been 'pretty right wing', they feel he has folded to the left over his foreign aid commitments, ring-fencing of the NHS budget and has done nothing to roll back the welfare state (they prefer a far, far more radical reduction). Libertarians think his Libyan/Syrian action is, well, stupid and despise the Data and Communications Bill (which monitors phone calls, internet use etc). Traditional Conservatives, the moral issues and the fact marriage tax cuts have no come into action. The Tory left at this stage only support him as they think he is an electoral asset, he does poll ahead of his party, but that's pretty much it, many feel he has not promoted a meritocratic government favouring 'chumocracy'. Personally, I favour the electoral argument, and feel he should remain and the other wings of the party are being a tad ridiculous though I would prefer a more right wing administration. Of course, coalition entails.

Oh and a new ComRes poll:

Lab 34% Con 30% UKIP 17% LibDem 10% Oth 9%.

Labour lead at a paltry four. Ipsos Mori had their lead at 3% last week I believe.

[afleitch]

Bigger picture Conservatives release that David Cameron is an asset. His favourable are still relatively favourable and in most polls out paces Ed Miliband and that’s the man who he will face in two years time. Furthermore, Tory strategists had expected to be some 20 points behind at this stage (as Tory governments have usually been) and been pleasantly surprised at Labour’s relatively low polling numbers. Miliband has been Labour leader now for almost 3 years and still has an image problem. He’s still ‘weird’. Furthermore Labour is barren of policy announcements. This is a genuine problem for the party; last night I was surprised to hear a BBC News report prefaced with ‘Labour, who have not announced what they would do…’ when cutting to a party figurehead talking about the economy. What is Labour going to do?

We know what they will do, but not announce. The Tories already ring fenced NHS spending and as an issue, the NHS isn’t really causing them much trouble. Labour will obviously stick to that. Furthermore the changes to the benefits system and the introduction of universal credit will not be rolled back because it’s what Labour wanted to do but didn’t have the political capital to do so. Likewise the public sector will see limited pay rises or freezes as a result. It makes me think that had Labour won the election in 2010, then they would probably be doing the exact same thing that the Tories are currently doing.

[DC Al Fine]

Bigger picture Conservatives release that David Cameron is an asset. His favourable are still relatively favourable and in most polls out paces Ed Miliband and that’s the man who he will face in two years time. Furthermore, Tory strategists had expected to be some 20 points behind at this stage (as Tory governments have usually been) and been pleasantly surprised at Labour’s relatively low polling numbers.

Why do the Tories poll so badly between elections?

[Leftbehind]

Bigger picture Conservatives release that David Cameron is an asset. His favourable are still relatively favourable and in most polls out paces Ed Miliband and that’s the man who he will face in two years time. Furthermore, Tory strategists had expected to be some 20 points behind at this stage (as Tory governments have usually been) and been pleasantly surprised at Labour’s relatively low polling numbers.

Why do the Tories poll so badly between elections?

They don't - it's an exaggeration their supporters like to use to claim they're doing well now. In reality beyond brief moments in 1980 (Thatcher's recession/no split left) and 1990 (poll tax), Labour struggled to get consistently into double digits until 1993 (after a near decade and half of Tory rule).

[YL]

Why do the Tories poll so badly between elections?

I don't think it's anything specific to the Tories.  Governments tend to make themselves unpopular in mid-term with some of the people who voted for them, so they do badly in polls, lose by-elections and struggle in local elections [1], but then when the next General Election comes round they take a look at the alternative, hold their nose and return to their previous allegiance.

The idea that the Tories particularly suffer from this may be influenced by 1987-92 and 1992-97.  But the latter was followed by an unprecedented Labour landslide, and in the former the Tories took drastic action, which was rewarded in the polls pretty quickly [2].  It may also be influenced by the extended Blair honeymoon, but that was also unusual.  (And even then the Tories briefly took the lead in September 2000.)

As for the current parliament, I think the sort of Tory voters described above are mostly shifting to UKIP in current polls and elections, not to Labour.  The Labour gains since 2010 in the polls are from the Lib Dems, minor parties and non-voters.  This is an unusual situation, and it's hard to use previous experience to predict what's going to happen.

[1] Look up what happened to Labour in 1968, the year the Tories won control of Sheffield City Council (they won Burngreave) and IIRC Labour didn't win a single ward in Birmingham.

[2] It might also be worth pointing out that the experience of the 1992 election suggests that some of those polls in the years running up to it were quite badly off.