UK General Discussion

[Andrea]

Tory reshuffle as exepected

Some bizarre moves by LD. Baker to Home Office? Resurection of Susan Kramer?

On Labour side, the highlight is the demotion of Jim Murphy.
Twigg and Byrne were always going to be at risk because of their tenure.
Good movie promoting Leslie. I would use Smith is something wider than Wales.
I would have sent Benn back to backbenches.
Has Jack Dromey been sacked?

[Silent Hunter]

Yes, Dromey has gone from Housing.

[YL]

Insane conspiracy theorist fruitcake Norman Baker has been moved from a junior Transport post to a junior Home Office post. This does not strike me as being a good thing.

It wouldn't be hard for him to be an improvement on Jeremy Browne, though.

I see the Guardian's online headline on the Labour reshuffle contains the words "Miliband targets Blairites", though at least some of the reporting recognises that that's simplistic.

[Leftbehind]

Yeah, as much as I'm glad to see the back of Byrne, Twigg and Murphy, I'm not imagining their replacements will set much of a different course.

[Andrea]

Yes, Dromey has gone from Housing.

he has been moved to Police today

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/08/norman-baker-conspiracy-theorists

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sir Menzies Campbell, who looks considerably older than his seventy two years, is to retire at the next election. He's held N.E. Fife since 1987 and was once the leader of the LibDems for about five seconds.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It wouldn't be hard for him to be an improvement on Jeremy Browne, though.

This is undeniably true. Browne was one of the worst members of the government.

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Of course what actually happened was that three right-wingers were sacked or demoted and three right-wingers were promoted

Talking of which, is it even possible to have a more stereotypically 'traditional Labour Right' name than 'Vernon Rodney Coaker'?

[afleitch]

Sir Menzies Campbell, who looks considerably older than his seventy two years, is to retire at the next election. He's held N.E. Fife since 1987 and was once the leader of the LibDems for about five seconds.

The only stalwarts that might help the Lib Dems retain seats seem to be retiring (Malcolm Bruce etc)

[Leftbehind]

It wouldn't be hard for him to be an improvement on Jeremy Browne, though.

This is undeniably true. Browne was one of the worst members of the government.

Never tire of punching that smug face of his.

[YL]

Sir Menzies Campbell, who looks considerably older than his seventy two years, is to retire at the next election. He's held N.E. Fife since 1987 and was once the leader of the LibDems for about five seconds.

The only stalwarts that might help the Lib Dems retain seats seem to be retiring (Malcolm Bruce etc)

A quick check suggests the only Lib Dem MPs elected before 1992 who have not announced their retirements are Charles Kennedy and Simon Hughes.  From 1992 there's also Don Foster and Nick Harvey.

It isn't clear which party might benefit from Campbell's retirement.  The SNP won the equivalent seat at Holyrood on a big swing, but it's an open question whether they'll be able to repeat performances like that in a Westminster election.  The seat was Tory until 1987, but then so was Manchester Withington .  It wouldn't surprise me if it was a fairly close four-way result.

[Hnv1]

Could any knowledgeable poster elaborate on the current status of the House of Lords? is it going to be reformed soon? does it serve any actual function as of now?

[You kip if you want to...]

Could any knowledgeable poster elaborate on the current status of the House of Lords? is it going to be reformed soon? does it serve any actual function as of now?

The Liberals pushed for a portion of the Lords to be elected (15 year terms, term-limited) but the Tories said no, as you'd expect, and Labour thought the proposals were unworkable, so they were dropped.

It does serve a function, just not a very significant one and the House of Commons can go over its head in most cases. It really just been used to slow things down lately. The Health and Social Care Act had a hard time and parts of Labour filibustered the AV bill for a good few days.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could any knowledgeable poster elaborate on the current status of the House of Lords?

An ever-increasing House of Patronage, though the (comparatively) small number of Hereditaries left after the Blair reforms are still there as well. Its growing so much at the moment because the Tories aren't used to governing without a majority in the Lords.

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No.

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It continues to function as a revising chamber.

[minionofmidas]

Sir Menzies Campbell, who looks considerably older than his seventy two years, is to retire at the next election. He's held N.E. Fife since 1987 and was once the leader of the LibDems for about five seconds.

The only stalwarts that might help the Lib Dems retain seats seem to be retiring (Malcolm Bruce etc)

A quick check suggests the only Lib Dem MPs elected before 1992 who have not announced their retirements are Charles Kennedy and Simon Hughes. 

Both of whom seem more likely to defect than to retire... or be defeated.

[You kip if you want to...]

David Heath, LibDem MP for Somerton and Frome to stand down in 2015.

The Liberal's 8th seat on their defense list and the Tories were already in with a good shout here for 2015. +1 Tory.

[YL]

David Heath, LibDem MP for Somerton and Frome to stand down in 2015.

The Liberal's 8th seat on their defense list and the Tories were already in with a good shout here for 2015. +1 Tory.

Heath's electoral record is curious in that he won Somerton and Vroom in four consecutive elections but always with very thin majorities.  In fact his 1817 majority over Annunziata Rees-Mogg (sister of Jacob) in 2010 was the first time it had been in four digits.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Shades of the Faversham constituency in the post-war era.

[You kip if you want to...]

Oxford Vice Chancellor says that they should be able to charge £16,000 tuition because "excellence isn't cheap". Not wanting to be sick on someone yet?

In response, Nick Clegg pledges not to raise fees to £16,000; the Honourable Member for Sheffield Hallam once again confirming his total lack of self awareness.

[afleitch]

Some very disturbing developments re 'Plebgate'; a Police Federation stitch up from start to finish.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Free School debacle, cont.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-24548690

[You kip if you want to...]

Interesting that polls are still narrowing despite a fairly strong uplift in EdM's personal ratings (he's now back to having a net (albeit narrow) lead over DC).

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8259

[Lurker]

Is that poll somewhat of an outlier? It's the only one I've heard of in along time where Labour hasn't lead the Tories.

[YL]

Is that poll somewhat of an outlier? It's the only one I've heard of in along time where Labour hasn't lead the Tories.

MORI use an aggressive turnout filter which (a) makes their effective sample size quite low and (b) is likely to reduce the Labour figure more than the other parties' (though I think it doesn't always work like that).

YouGov had one poll earlier this week which put the Tories on 37, but other than that their typical figures at the moment are something like Lab 38 to 40, Con 33 to 35, UKIP 10 to 12, LD 8 to 10.  (Today's is 40/34/11/9.)

[afleitch]

There has been a narrowing of the polls (YouGov posted a trend graph a few days ago) and even post conference they have returned to where they were. It's good news for the Conservatives this far out from the GE.

We are currently undergoing a little Osbourne boomlet which while not immediately apparent in wages or prices (how 1970’s) is showing in the property market, the financial markets and other drivers of the economy. Those issues are the ‘donkey’ and cost of living issues are the ‘cart’ of economic recovery with the Tories focusing on the former and Labour on the latter. What other issues might point towards a Conservative recovery?

The truth is, the Tories haven’t had a ‘clusterf-ck’ so far. Indeed the Conservatives had a fairly lasting honeymoon with the electorate taking a huge noticeable dip after the omnishambles budget of April 2012. This also sowed the seeds of the UKIP surge which peaked (so far) a year later. However despite this, nothing the Conservatives have done either in the country or to themselves (and everyone has to take off their partisan hats here) has been noticeable catastrophic; by which I mean running into huge opposition across the opposition, the floating voters and their own base. Europe has generally been off the table and the party would do well to keep it that way. The marriage issue has subsided. The changes to the benefits system and the ‘Bedroom Tax’ are not making much noise within the Tory target groups and Labour have essentially accepted the status quo. Remember when the government was defeated over military action in Syria and the PM accepted it? It won’t be long before you forget about that. Royal Mail has just been privatised without a fuss. I want to say that again; Royal Mail has just been privatised without a fuss. This is an issue which dogged successive Tory and Labour governments however an organisation which still has a ‘beloved’ status, despite our grumblings over service, has just been sold off. It is worth noting of course that this sea change of indifference has much to do with changes in communication and the reduced role that the postal system has in our lives.

In the polls we have ICM with a gap of four, YouGov with a gap of four (which is very bouncy bouncy). It’s enough for Labour, probably, but it leaves them with little wriggle room. If the Lib Dems move back up and polls suggest a flood of current switchers to Labour then Labour will fall. If UKIP fade, then the Tories may benefit. It’s worth noting for comparison that in the first two weeks after Labour’s defeat in 2010, they were polling at around 32% with the Lib Dems at 21%. So even immediately after an election the polls weren't quite close to the election result weeks previously.

The Tories aren’t tanking, which is what they tend to do in between governments (and out of government in the Blair years) and that is important.