UK General Discussion

[You kip if you want to...]

A chance for UKIP to run through the middle?

[Vosem]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/whose-policy-ukip-or-monster-raving-loony-party

I got 7/16

6/16

[Cassius]

I've attempted to find out why they deselected her, and my search seems to have been pretty fruitless!?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've attempted to find out why they deselected her, and my search seems to have been pretty fruitless!?

Personal animosity, pretty obviously. Mutual personal animosity at that. Part of which presumably comes from resentment at the vote in 2006.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tory selection procedures are weird, but it's probably fair to say that Tim Yeo (MP for South Suffolk since 1983) has been half-deselected.

And now he's been fully deselected.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cannock Chase MP Aidan Burley - the Tory MP who's chances of political advancement were cut short by a decidedly foolish choice of fancy dress costume - has surprised absolutely no one by announcing his retirement at the next election.

Local elections have been appalling for the Tories here at both district and county level (Labour lead of c.15pts and the Tories just behind UKIP) and the seat looks a bit like a write-off, though the non-candidacy of Burley means it probably won't go utterly toxic.

[Silent Hunter]

Mark Harper quits as immigration minister... after employing illegal immigrant

[Frodo]

So how likely is it that PM David Cameron can win an outright majority for the Conservative Party next year?  

[Cassius]

Low to non-existent, unless your Dan Hodges. UKIP will probably, in their worst case scenario, still get about 5-6 percent of the vote, which will drain votes from the Tories in a number of constituencies (even with 3 percent in 2010, they still cost the Conservatives a handful of seats). Labour will likely remain steady in the upper 30's, which puts them in majority government territory. So, I can't see the Conservatives getting a majority as long as the situation stays remarkably similar going into 2015. Maybe, just maybe, if the economy really picks up steam in time for 2015, or if the Labour Party has a really massive clusterf*** or if UKIP collapses spectacularly (and it would probably require at least two of these factors), there's a chance that the Tories could remain in office, and even take a majority. But I doubt it...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Conservative opportunities for making further gains off Labour look extremely limited even in a best-case scenario for them (one certain thing about the next election is that the Labour vote is going to rise), however...

It isn't often mentioned, but the only reason why the Tories don't have a majority at present is because a significant number of former Conservative bedrock constituencies are currently represented by LibDem MPs.* Essentially the path to a Conservative majority would be keeping losses to Labour to a minimum, while basically gutting their coalition partner. Not impossible, but not easy either.

_{*That and their long-term decline in the (post)industrial cities: this hasn't cost them many seats actually, but even a small number count. Conservative governments used to have a handful of Birmingham seats, a couple from Liverpool and Leeds, one or two from Manchester, Newcastle, Sheffield, Bradford, Nottingham, Leicester, etc. but not post-Thatcher. Again, that's not many seats... but it does change the numbers when things are tight. There's nothing they can do about this issue in the short-term, of course.}

[You kip if you want to...]

Conservative opportunities for making further gains off Labour look extremely limited even in a best-case scenario for them (one certain thing about the next election is that the Labour vote is going to rise), however...

It isn't often mentioned, but the only reason why the Tories don't have a majority at present is because a significant number of former Conservative bedrock constituencies are currently represented by LibDem MPs.* Essentially the path to a Conservative majority would be keeping losses to Labour to a minimum, while basically gutting their coalition partner. Not impossible, but not easy either.

_{*That and their long-term decline in the (post)industrial cities: this hasn't cost them many seats actually, but even a small number count. Conservative governments used to have a handful of Birmingham seats, a couple from Liverpool and Leeds, one or two from Manchester, Newcastle, Sheffield, Bradford, Nottingham, Leicester, etc. but not post-Thatcher. Again, that's not many seats... but it does change the numbers when things are tight. There's nothing they can do about this issue in the short-term, of course.}

And even this assumes that the Tories are at 36-40%, right?

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-11/uk-britain-river-thames-on-flood-alert/5250986

The River Thames has burst it's banks, flooding large areas of Southwest England... naturally the political blame game has begun. Communities Minister Eric Pickles said the government "relied to much on the Environment Agency's advice", while Environment agency chair Chris Smith said the Treasury had limited the amount of money that could be spent on flood management.

[Cassius]

Damn weather. Doesn't the good lord know that I need to attend an applicant open day on Wednesday. In Exeter. Jesus.

[YL]

Pickles is dreadful.

The main (and only) railway line to Cornwall and southern and western Devon suspended above the sea at Dawlish, Devon:



(posted by Francesca Blackham on Twitter)

[afleitch]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/10/public-money-private-wealth-london-north-v-south

Not often I agree, but I can't really fault this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and even in London, who exactly is it that actually benefits from much of the investment, etc.

Of course this problem isn't unique to Britain (Paris plays a similar role in France, etc... worse in some respects actually) and it isn't new, but it's getting worse for sure.

[You kip if you want to...]

So Tristram Hunt crossed a uni picket line to give a lecture on Marx and Engels.

Well, if I didn't know what irony was before...

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tony-benn-fears-grow-seriously-3134955

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

British government tells Scotland that if it votes to walk away from the UK, it loses the pound

[politicus]

British government tells Scotland that if it votes to walk away from the UK, it loses the pound

Despite the current problems, I think they would be better of with the Euro. But I realize its a hard sell right now.

Anyway, arrogant, posh Tories lecturing Scots should be good for the yes-vote.

[Cassius]

British government tells Scotland that if it votes to walk away from the UK, it loses the pound

Despite the current problems, I think they would be better of with the Euro. But I realize its a hard sell right now.

Anyway, arrogant, posh Tories lecturing Scots should be good for the yes-vote.

This isn't just 'arrogant, posh Tories', as you so uncharitably dub them, lecturing the Scots, this issue is one of the few things the three major parties agree on. As for the issue with the pound, since one of the main planks of Salmond's independence bid seems to have been that Scotland will retain all of the current benefits of being in the Union (like the Pound) despite being independent, the latter assertion isn't particularly credible, especially in the light of this announcement on the pound.

[MaxQue]

As there is plenty of countries using American Dollar or Euro without being "allowed" to do so by USA or EU, I don't see how UK can ban them for using it.

That's just plainly misleading persons. But, not surprising coming from Cameron.

[Cassius]

As there is plenty of countries using American Dollar or Euro without being "allowed" to do so by USA or EU, I don't see how UK can ban them for using it.

That's just plainly misleading persons. But, not surprising coming from Cameron.

Yes, but, on the other hand, those are generally speaking third-world countries lacking a credible currency of their own (e.g. Zimbabwe). I don't think the Scots desire to emulate that example. No, what they have been proposing is a currency union, which is quite different to unofficially using foreign currency.

[swl]

I find the similarities between the debates on Scotland leaving the UK and the UK leaving the EU rather amusing.

[You kip if you want to...]

As there is plenty of countries using American Dollar or Euro without being "allowed" to do so by USA or EU, I don't see how UK can ban them for using it.

That's just plainly misleading persons. But, not surprising coming from Cameron.

Yes, but, on the other hand, those are generally speaking third-world countries lacking a credible currency of their own (e.g. Zimbabwe). I don't think the Scots desire to emulate that example. No, what they have been proposing is a currency union, which is quite different to unofficially using foreign currency.

Yeah, it's more about setting out how clearly unstable an independent Scottish economy would be.