FL PrimR: CNN/Time: Romney Leads Gingrich by 2%, within MoE
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  FL PrimR: CNN/Time: Romney Leads Gingrich by 2%, within MoE
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Author Topic: FL PrimR: CNN/Time: Romney Leads Gingrich by 2%, within MoE  (Read 883 times)
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« on: January 25, 2012, 05:03:20 PM »

New Poll: Florida President by CNN/Time on 2012-01-24

Summary:
Romney:
36%
Gingrich:
34%
Santorum:
11%
Paul:
9%
Other:
3%
Undecided:
7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

1. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, please tell me which of the following

people you would be most likely to support. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Texas

Congressman Ron Paul, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania

Senator Rick Santorum (RANDOM ORDER) And if that candidate decides not to run for

president for any reason, who would be your second choice?

Jan. 22-24 Jan. 13-17 Nov. 29 – Dec. 6

2012 2012 2011

Romney 36% 43% 25%

Gingrich 34% 18% 48%

Santorum 11% 19% 1%

Paul 9% 9% 5%

Someone else (vol.) * * 1%

None/ No one (vol.) 4% 3% 3%

Bachmann N/A N/A 3%

Huntsman N/A N/A 3%

Perry N/A 2% 3%

No opinion 7% 6% 7%

NOTE: In Jan. 13-17 poll, Jon Huntsman's name was included in the list of candidates through January 15. Results indicate the

second choice of respondents who chose Huntsman as their first choice. In Nov. 29-Dec. 6 poll, Herman Cain's name was

included in the list of candidates until December 3. Results indicate the second choice of respondents who chose Cain as their

first choice.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2012, 05:14:15 PM »

Good news, though CNN has always been favorable to Romney.

Tomorrow's debate is arguably the biggest of the campaign. A win by Romney could set him on the track to still get this locked up by late March. A loss could potentially lead to a brokered convention or a Gingrich win.
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King
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« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2012, 05:15:05 PM »

CNN had Romney +10 in SC just three days before the primary.
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« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2012, 05:15:21 PM »

Tomorrow's debate is arguably the biggest of the campaign.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2012, 05:17:05 PM »

These polls were conducted the same days but they are all over the place. It's impossible not only to know who's leading but even to detect a trend.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2012, 05:18:08 PM »

Interesting that Romney polled much better on Monday night than Sunday night, as the Gingrich afterglow of SC victory wore off.
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Meeker
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« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2012, 05:19:07 PM »

My general feeling here is that Gingrich didn't do too well on Monday night and Romney has the momentum... but that may well be wrong and tomorrow night's debate may throw that all on its head.
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California8429
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« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2012, 05:33:56 PM »

Good news, though CNN has always been favorable to Romney.

Tomorrow's debate is arguably the biggest of the campaign. A win by Romney could set him on the track to still get this locked up by late March. A loss could potentially lead to a brokered convention or a Gingrich win.

even better news is CNN allows living to be present and breathing at their debates! And I do agree this is the most important debate (though arguably the one before SC when Newt's ex went on TV could be considered because if he didn't win the question which we all knew was coming first, Romney would have won SC and then the nomination probably).

What happens if there's a tie at the debate? I mean I considered the last debate a tie and we're looking at tied polling numbers. Well if they are literally tied on election day Romney wins due to absentees. Could be very close. Very fun Cheesy
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2012, 05:45:35 PM »

Well Romney has had the airwaves to himself for the last weeks, now Newt's SuperPAC is going on air with anti-Mitt ads that will drive up his negatives. Of course Mitt is doing the same to Newt but those are more of the same.

I think it is a tossup at this point, making the debate an even bigger deal for both of them
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2012, 06:12:23 PM »

Good news, though CNN has always been favorable to Romney.

Tomorrow's debate is arguably the biggest of the campaign. A win by Romney could set him on the track to still get this locked up by late March. A loss could potentially lead to a brokered convention or a Gingrich win.

even better news is CNN allows living to be present and breathing at their debates! And I do agree this is the most important debate (though arguably the one before SC when Newt's ex went on TV could be considered because if he didn't win the question which we all knew was coming first, Romney would have won SC and then the nomination probably).

What happens if there's a tie at the debate? I mean I considered the last debate a tie and we're looking at tied polling numbers. Well if they are literally tied on election day Romney wins due to absentees. Could be very close. Very fun Cheesy
If there's a tie, Mitt will continue to pull away here, as he has the cash and organizational advantage. The best result for Romney, IMO, would be a Santorum debate win, followed closely by Romney, then Paul and Gingrich at 3rd and 4th, doesn't matter the order there. That ensures Santorum will likely stay in through Florida and keeps momentum on Mitt's side.

I think Gingrich still has a good path to the nomination without Florida, but yeah, tomorrow night's debate is crucial for him.
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2012, 06:16:02 PM »

Good news, though CNN has always been favorable to Romney.

Tomorrow's debate is arguably the biggest of the campaign. A win by Romney could set him on the track to still get this locked up by late March. A loss could potentially lead to a brokered convention or a Gingrich win.

even better news is CNN allows living to be present and breathing at their debates! And I do agree this is the most important debate (though arguably the one before SC when Newt's ex went on TV could be considered because if he didn't win the question which we all knew was coming first, Romney would have won SC and then the nomination probably).

What happens if there's a tie at the debate? I mean I considered the last debate a tie and we're looking at tied polling numbers. Well if they are literally tied on election day Romney wins due to absentees. Could be very close. Very fun Cheesy
If there's a tie, Mitt will continue to pull away here, as he has the cash and organizational advantage. The best result for Romney, IMO, would be a Santorum debate win, followed closely by Romney, then Paul and Gingrich at 3rd and 4th, doesn't matter the order there. That ensures Santorum will likely stay in through Florida and keeps momentum on Mitt's side.

I think Gingrich still has a good path to the nomination without Florida, but yeah, tomorrow night's debate is crucial for him.

Would it help if I prayed that tomorrow night's debate will be a redux of Monday's one? Just asking.
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Dereich
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« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2012, 06:23:04 PM »

Good news, though CNN has always been favorable to Romney.

Tomorrow's debate is arguably the biggest of the campaign. A win by Romney could set him on the track to still get this locked up by late March. A loss could potentially lead to a brokered convention or a Gingrich win.

God, I'm sooooo lucky that this is the debate that I get to go to. And I don't even have to stay silent! On the subject, I expect it to be a much more Romney-friendly debate then the SC ones. Jacksonville has always been a big Romney stronghold.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2012, 06:39:27 PM »

Good news, though CNN has always been favorable to Romney.

Tomorrow's debate is arguably the biggest of the campaign. A win by Romney could set him on the track to still get this locked up by late March. A loss could potentially lead to a brokered convention or a Gingrich win.

even better news is CNN allows living to be present and breathing at their debates! And I do agree this is the most important debate (though arguably the one before SC when Newt's ex went on TV could be considered because if he didn't win the question which we all knew was coming first, Romney would have won SC and then the nomination probably).

What happens if there's a tie at the debate? I mean I considered the last debate a tie and we're looking at tied polling numbers. Well if they are literally tied on election day Romney wins due to absentees. Could be very close. Very fun Cheesy
If there's a tie, Mitt will continue to pull away here, as he has the cash and organizational advantage. The best result for Romney, IMO, would be a Santorum debate win, followed closely by Romney, then Paul and Gingrich at 3rd and 4th, doesn't matter the order there. That ensures Santorum will likely stay in through Florida and keeps momentum on Mitt's side.

I think Gingrich still has a good path to the nomination without Florida, but yeah, tomorrow night's debate is crucial for him.

Would it help if I prayed that tomorrow night's debate will be a redux of Monday's one? Just asking.
Yessir. Smiley



I think audience interaction in debates is unnecessary - we're not going to get them against Obama in the GE, and we shouldn't get them now. It basically rewards the candidates who throw out the most punchlines.
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