The Ride of the Nighthorse
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  The Ride of the Nighthorse
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Author Topic: The Ride of the Nighthorse  (Read 4192 times)
badgate
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« Reply #25 on: December 11, 2012, 04:51:05 PM »

DEAN! DEAN! DEAN!
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #26 on: December 11, 2012, 05:34:52 PM »

Post VP Debate Electoral Map, No Tossups



Strong Dean: 183 (down from 188)
Likely Dean: 65 (up from 60)
Lean Dean: 55 (up from 36)
Total Dean: 303 (up from 284)

 Total Campbell: 235 (up from 164)
Lean Campbell: 104 (up from 15)
Likely Campbell: 119 (down from 137)
Strong Campbell: 12 (no change)


The second Presidential debate would be town hall style bring both candidates In front of voters chosen by the Gallup organization. Foreign policy concerns would still be at the forefront, as violence erupted in Afghanistan during their first democratic election. Campbell says he supports US operations in Afghanistan but that the Bush Administration is handling it idealogically but not pragmatically. Dean opposes the current US involvement in Afghanistan, and prefers a strategic approach using the CIA. Dean credits the Bush Administration for doing that initially. Voters give Campbell a slight edge for the win.

A week after the debate, Attorney General John Ashcroft resigns spurring speculation that an investigation had uncovered wrongdoing by Ashcroft. The White House statement said that Ashcroft resigned to “spend more time with his family.” Senator Campbell said the resignation was an example of a failed Administration and Governor Dean commented that he wouldn’t be surprised if there was more to the resignation than the White House is saying.

In the final debate, Senator Campbell and Governor Dean would debate economic issues. Dean would chastize Campbell for voting for the Bush tax cuts calling them “irresponsible” while Campbell would say that Dean’s policies would not solve the fiscal problems of the US and he was against “tax cuts for the sake of tax cuts” and would reiterate that “public policy needs to be based on pragmatism and results not ideology.” Campbell would criticize Dean for “embodying ideology like President Bush and not results.”

Final National Poll:

Dean (D-VT)/Holbrooke (D-NY): 49%
Campbell (R-CO)/McCain (R-AZ):  45%
Undecided:  6%
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #27 on: December 11, 2012, 05:45:32 PM »

Final National Poll:

Dean (D-VT)/Holbrooke (D-NY): 49%
Campbell (R-CO)/McCain (R-AZ):  45%
Undecided:  6%

How the crap is Campbell overcoming Bush 70% Dissaproval rating?
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badgate
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« Reply #28 on: December 11, 2012, 05:59:02 PM »

Final National Poll:

Dean (D-VT)/Holbrooke (D-NY): 49%
Campbell (R-CO)/McCain (R-AZ):  45%
Undecided:  6%

How the crap is Campbell overcoming Bush 70% Dissaproval rating?

Successfully challenging an incumbent President in the primaries will probably do the trick, though 70% is indeed an enormous cross to bear.

LIKE A BAT OUT OF HELL, HE'LL BE GONE WHEN THE MORNIN' COMES
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #29 on: December 11, 2012, 10:17:21 PM »

Final National Poll:

Dean (D-VT)/Holbrooke (D-NY): 49%
Campbell (R-CO)/McCain (R-AZ):  45%
Undecided:  6%

How the crap is Campbell overcoming Bush 70% Dissaproval rating?

Successfully challenging an incumbent President in the primaries will probably do the trick, though 70% is indeed an enormous cross to bear.

LIKE A BAT OUT OF HELL, HE'LL BE GONE WHEN THE MORNIN' COMES

+Ran against Bush in '00
+Challenged incumbent President in '04
+Picked John McCain as running mate who was critical of the President (even though Dean/Holbrooke will try to tie both of them to the administration)
+Likability with independents, used to be a Democrat now Republican
+Media portraying him favorably against Bush, especially with their drawn out primary
+Excellent debate performances

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GLPman
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« Reply #30 on: December 12, 2012, 01:05:01 AM »

Great job so far. You've definitely developed a great TL out of an original idea.

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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #31 on: December 12, 2012, 01:22:11 PM »

Election Night

8pm

“This is Dan Rather with our network’s election watch. As the first polls start to close we can make a few projects. We can project South Carolina and North Carolina for Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and DC will cast their electoral votes for Governor Howard Dean.



Governor Howard Dean of Vermont / Ambassador Richard Holbrooke of New York – 57 Electoral Votes
Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado / Senator John McCain of Arizona – 23 Electoral Votes
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #32 on: December 12, 2012, 02:00:10 PM »

9pm

“Its unusual for the Democrat to have a lead such early on, but Governor Dean does. This may change after the 9pm hour where we will call a few more states…”



Governor Howard Dean of Vermont / Ambassador Richard Holbrooke of New York – 156 Electoral Votes
Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado / Senator John McCain of Arizona – 145 Electoral Votes

“Something we’re noticing is that Governor Dean is keeping the race close in states he is losing. Many of these are historically Republican states but Dean is getting at least 42% of the vote in these states…”
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #33 on: December 12, 2012, 02:38:30 PM »

10pm

“For the first time tonight, Senator Campbell has taken the lead.”



Governor Howard Dean of Vermont / Ambassador Richard Holbrooke of New York – 166 Electoral Votes
Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado / Senator John McCain of Arizona – 183 Electoral Votes


"Governor Dean is performing very strongly in all of the states that Campbell has won thus far."
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #34 on: December 12, 2012, 03:34:41 PM »

11pm

“The only states remaining, that will decide the election, are Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Five out of six of those were leaning Democratic in the last series of polls but still within the margin of error.”



Governor Howard Dean of Vermont / Ambassador Richard Holbrooke of New York – 240 Electoral Votes
Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado / Senator John McCain of Arizona – 222 Electoral Votes
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #35 on: December 12, 2012, 05:54:20 PM »

The map had the potential to be interesting with ND and MO going dem Sad
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #36 on: December 12, 2012, 05:56:15 PM »

The map had the potential to be interesting with ND and MO going dem Sad

Are you calling my TL uninteresting eh?
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #37 on: December 12, 2012, 05:57:03 PM »

Midnight

“In a big win for Senator Campbell, Florida goes for him. Tonight will be tighter than we expected. Governor Dean still leads in the popular vote by a fairly wide margin.”



Governor Howard Dean of Vermont / Ambassador Richard Holbrooke of New York – 250 Electoral Votes
Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado / Senator John McCain of Arizona – 249 Electoral Votes
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #38 on: December 12, 2012, 05:57:05 PM »

I am loving this timeline it is great
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Cathcon
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« Reply #39 on: December 12, 2012, 06:02:18 PM »

IMO, the Republicans would be doing strong in the South-West. While New Mexico barely went for Bush, I'd imagine a Campbell/McCain ticket would easily take New Mexico.
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badgate
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« Reply #40 on: December 12, 2012, 10:06:09 PM »

Prediction: EC result is 269-269.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #41 on: December 12, 2012, 10:08:35 PM »

Ohio could still go to Dean.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #42 on: December 13, 2012, 06:36:12 AM »

The map had the potential to be interesting with ND and MO going dem Sad

Are you calling my TL uninteresting eh?

No, but you could have given ND to Dean Tongue
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #43 on: December 13, 2012, 09:27:14 AM »

1am

"In a surprise, Senator Campbell will take Ohio, putting him at 269 Electoral Votes, just one away from the Presidency. Oregon tonight is unusually close. This state was lean Democratic but the Campbell campaign has done some organizing in the state.

What we can tell you right now is that Governor Howard Dean will not be elected President tonight. If Governor Dean wins Oregon, there will be a tie in the Electoral College. We can also project that Governor Dean will win the popular vote."



Governor Howard Dean of Vermont / Ambassador Richard Holbrooke of New York – 262 Electoral Votes
Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado / Senator John McCain of Arizona – 269 Electoral Votes
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Gass3268
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« Reply #44 on: December 13, 2012, 04:58:25 PM »

Democrats are going to be pissed if they lose two straight elections in the electoral college while winning the popular vote!
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #45 on: December 13, 2012, 05:18:33 PM »
« Edited: December 13, 2012, 05:24:36 PM by sirnick »

2am



Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado / Senator John McCain of Arizona – 276 Electoral Votes, 46.27% Popular Vote – 59,282,057
Governor Howard Dean of Vermont / Ambassador Richard Holbrooke of New York – 262 Electoral Votes, 53.73% Popular Vote, 68,840,791

“Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell will be the 44th President of the United States having narrowly won the Electoral College and decisively lost the popular vote.”


A year later, an interview with Governor Dean's former campaign manager


“Looking back on it, we couldn’t have expected this. In the middle of October, polls had us at 303 Electoral Votes. Our internals said we wouldn’t win Missouri or North Dakota –that put us down to 289. That’s a small margin, that’s only 19 Electoral Votes.  On Election night, we lost Missouri and North Dakota as expected. Then we lost Ohio. At that point we knew we real worried that we’d have a 269-269, in fact, most of our strategist were sure of it.”

“What happened when Oregon wasn’t called immediately?”

“We thought it was weird, and that maybe it was a fluke and they were waiting to call it. Then we started watching the returns, and realized we were in a run for our money. Then at 1am they called it. We managed to recreate 2000. We had won a decisive majority in the popular vote, and lost the Electoral College."

"Do you regret not contesting the result in Oregon?"

"No, we didn't need to go down bitterly. We had no reason to believe there was fraud of any kind."

"Is Howard Dean going to run again?"

"We'll certainly find out, won't we?"

Margins of victory for Howard Dean by State

State   % Margin
Utah   -39.8%
Idaho   -34.2%
Wyoming   -22.2%
Arizona   -18.2%
Nebraska   -13.8%
Alaska   -12.2%
Alabama   -10.2%
Arkansas   -10.2%
South Carolina   -9.8%
Kansas   -8.2%
Louisiana   -8.2%
Oklahoma   -8.2%
North Carolina   -7.4%
Texas   -6.2%
Mississippi   -4.2%
Colorado   -3.8%
North Dakota   -3.8%
South Dakota   -3.8%
Missouri   -3.6%
Indiana   -2.2%
Georgia   -1.8%
Montana   -1.8%
Virginia   -1.7%
Nevada   -0.6%
Kentucky   -0.4%
Tennessee   -0.4%
Florida   -0.2%
Ohio   -0.1%
Oregon   -0.0051%
New Mexico   1.7%
Washington   2.2%
West Virginia   2.2%
Wisconsin   2.2%
Iowa   4.2%
New Hampshire   4.2%
Pennsylvania   8.2%
Maine   14.2%
Michigan   14.2%
Minnesota   16.2%
Connecticut   18.2%
Delaware   20.2%
Maryland   20.2%
Rhode Island   20.4%
New Jersey   22.2%
Massachusetts   26.2%
Illinois   27.8%
Hawaii   30.2%
New York   30.2%
California   34.2%
Vermont   40.4%
District of Columbia   60.2%



States within 5% margin for either candidate.
Campbell: 137 EV
Dean: 32 EV



Margin of Victory Map

90% Blue/Red =  10%+ margin
50% Blue/Red = 5.1-9.9% margin
30% Blue/Red = 0-5% margin

Next: 2005 & Beyond
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #46 on: December 16, 2012, 11:41:40 AM »

The Aftermath – Election Night, 2:15am


“I know the result is hard to accept. Believe me I know its hard too. Our Founding Fathers said that whoever wins the Electoral College will be our next President and tonight that person is Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell. I ask all of my supporters to stand behind the President and join me in wishing him the best of luck. I know he will serve all Americans with honor and dignity. Good night and God bless America!” – Governor Howard Dean conceding the Presidency to Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell

“We are waiting for the President-elect to speak, but we just watched Governor Howard Dean concede to Senator Campbell…this is the second Presidential election in a row where the winner of the popular vote lost the Electoral College…Governor Dean received over 9.5 million more votes than Senator Campbell…” – Wolf Blitzer

”Democrats are scathing tonight. Governor Dean’s concession won’t soothe them this time. We already have seen several prominent elected officials call for an end or reform to the Electoral College…I’m sure we’ll have a poll out in a few days…” – Bill O’Reilly

”Thank you, thank you very much. I come to you tonight humbled. I did not want the results to be like this tonight. I am grateful for all of my supporters, but it is clear in the popular vote that many Americans would have preffered a different outcome. To those people I say, I will be your President. I will be the President of every American, but to do that I need you to stand with me...Together we can tackle problems that have alluded us for so long like Social Security, tax reform and a thorough discussion on reforming the Electoral College… Moving forward is going to be hard, and I need you behind me. Every American. So I ask you to join me for the next four years to make our country even better.” – President-elect Ben Nighthorse Campbell giving his victory speech
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Cathcon
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« Reply #47 on: December 16, 2012, 11:49:34 AM »

That's... just.... Nuts. Not only is it nuts, but zero room is left for a third party candidate getting .01% or higher.
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #48 on: December 16, 2012, 08:05:26 PM »

That's... just.... Nuts. Not only is it nuts, but zero room is left for a third party candidate getting .01% or higher.

I had third parties get .20% in each state. Didn't feel like randomizing it.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #49 on: December 16, 2012, 08:58:07 PM »

That's disgusting. I hope Dean runs in 2008 and wins.
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