2016 Election Game - Game Thread

[sentinel]

Sign Up/Rules Thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147716.0

Please look over the rules I'm going to try to be as fair as possible but occasionally things just won't benefit you (just like what happens in real life). I will also create events for you to respond to.

NATIONAL POLLS SEPTEMBER 1ST, 2015

DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York: 20%
Mayor Rahm Emanuel of Illinois: 16%
Former Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland: 15%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: 12%
Governor Gavin Newsom of California: 12%
Senator Claire MacCaskill of Missouri: 7%
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: 6%
Undecided: 12%

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey: 19%
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky: 12%
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida: 11%
Senator Paul Ryan of Wisconsin: 9%
Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina: 6%
Senator Jon Huntsman of Utah: 5%
Congressman Allen West of Florida: 5%
Governor Brian Sandoval of Nevada: 3%
Undecided: 30%

Start Date: September 1st, 2015 (January 27, 2012). Each day IRL is a "week" in game.
Endorsements: See rules, I'll announce the first "round of endorsements" in a few "weeks"
No more than 2 states per day. Must announce schedule for each "week." Not announcing will result in loss of points in national/state polls.

Problems/suggestions: Use rules thread.

Want to join? There's still plenty of room -- ask on the rules thread.

First round state polls will come out tomorrow night (Jan 27).


...and the best rule ever: There's a feature on excel where I can give a cell a range (1 to 1,000) and it'll give me a number. I will get a random number for each candidate each day and if you get the number 13 your candidate is assassinated. Shame

[sentinel]

First Polls/Random Events & More Narrative: Tomorrow January 28 (Week 2, September 8 -15, 2015 )

Jon Huntsman needs to announce his intentions and Governor Sandoval is expected to announce soon (I hope).


Remember, Chuck Hagel (Independent) and Donald Trump (Reform Party) who will also be seeking the presidency.

[sentinel]

September 8 to 15, 2015 Polls

Early Iowa Poll:

Republicans:

Christie: 19%
Rubio 10%
Ryan: 12%
Paul: 8%
West: 5%
Sandoval: 3%
Burr: 3%

Democrats:

O'Malley: 21%
Cuomo: 21%
Emanuel: 15%
MacCaskill: 13%
Newsom: 12%
Gillibrand: 12%
Klobuchar: 6%

Congressional Ballot:

Republican: 44%
Democrat: 40%


Early out with no candidates having made stops in Iowa yet, we see that polls largely reflect national polls with some candidates doing better who are geographically closer.


The 2016 Presidential field as quickly expanded with candidates such as Rahm Emanuel, Amy Klobuchar, Richard Burr unexpectedly jumping into the race to replace President Obama.

On September 10, 2015 President Obama has announced that he is going to aggressively back a cap and trade bill sponsored by Senator Elizabeth Warren. Harsh resistance is expected in the House but Democrats only need a handful of Republicans to change sides for it to pass.

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Make sure to outline your campaign "stops" for each "week"

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Reserve non-in character commentary to the Sign Up/Rules thread.

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Note: Donald Trump and Chuck Hagel don't need to be as active right now but I will reward them with better favorability and polling in the general if they are active.

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Week 3
September 22 to 29 2015

National Polling:

Republican Primary:

Christie: 13%
Ryan: 13%
West: 10%
Paul: 10%
Rubio: 9%
Huntsman: 8%
Sandoval: 5%


Democrats:

Cuomo: 21%
O'Malley: 19%
Newsom: 16%
Emanuel: 15%
Gillibrand: 13%
MaCaskill: 7%
Klobuchar: 3%

Iowa Polling:

Republicans:

Christie: 20%
Ryan: 15%
Rubio: 11%
Paul: 7%
West: 6%
Sandoval: 5%

Democrats:

Cuomo: 18%
O'Malley: 18%
MacCaskill: 15%
Gillibrand: 15%
Emanuel: 13%
Newsom: 10%
Klobuchar: 2%



Additional Narrative:

After difficulties fundraising, Senator Richard Burr drops out of the race for President.

The President continues to push his cap and trade bill. The Congressional Budget Office says that the President's plan is "not budget neutral" as he claims while the Office of Budget & Management continues to push that it is and that Congress tinkering with the bill has made it not so.

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is reportedly very ill.


Additional Notes:

Please post with your candidates name every time so I don't have to go back to the rules thread to look

I will start giving out endorsements for Iowa in the next few days. Tomorrow will be the first New Hampshire poll as well.

[sentinel]

I messed up the date in my last post. Now fixed.

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This is going to be my cut off for this "week." I'll have a update sometime tomorrow but continue doing as you guys have been doing

September 29 - October 5, 2015 starts now

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When you post please put your candidate's name at the top of the post if it isn't obvious...just makes it easier for me

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Polling:

National:

Republican Nomination:

Christie: 13%
Ryan: 12%
Bush: 12%
Huntsman: 10%
Rubio: 9%
Paul 8%
Sandoval: 7%
West: 7%

Pundits: The entrance of Governor Bush into the race eats away at some of Congressman West's base of support. Chris Christie has a high favorabiliy rating in the Republican party but voters seem to be exploring other possibilities. Senator Paul has also begun to dip in the polls as Sandoval expands his support.

Democrats:

O'Malley: 19%
Cuomo: 19%
Emanuel: 16%
Newsom: 15%
Gillibrand: 15%
MacCaskill: 8%
Klobuchar: 3%

Pundits: O'Malley and Cuomo maintain their leads as the frontrunners while the other candidates try to define themselves more. Newsom has stayed relatively consistent with his place while Gillibrand seems to be picking up speed.

First New Hampshire Poll:

Republicans:

Christie: 22%
Huntsman: 15%
Bush: 13%
Rubio: 10%
Ryan: 8%
Paul: 8%
Sandoval: 3%
West: 2%

Democrats:

Cuomo: 21%
Newsom: 15%
O'Malley: 12%
Emanuel: 10%
Gillibrand: 8%
MacCaskill: 4%
Klobuchar: 2%

Narrative:

President Obama's cap and trade bill will come up to vote in the Senate next week as Senate Majority leader Harry Reid has pledged to bring it up. Eric Cantor, House Majority Leader, says that the vote will fail in the House and he'll be happy to bring it up.

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia passes away of complications from pneumonia. President Obama is expected to announce a replacement for him within the next two weeks. A fierce conformation battle is expected in the 52-48 Senate since this nomination will give the majority on the Supreme Court back to the liberal side.

[sentinel]

I'll be giving at least one major Iowa endorsements in the next hour or so. Two or three if you're lucky.

[sentinel]

October 6 - October 12, 2015 starts now

Start of the Week Polling

Iowa:

Republicans:

Christie: 19%
Ryan: 13%
Bush: 12%
Sandoval: 10%
Rubio: 10%
West: 10%
Huntsman: 8%
Paul: 3%

Democrats:

Gillibrand: 19%
Emanuel: 18%
MacCaskill: 15%
Cuomo: 15%
Newsom: 13%
O'Malley: 13%
Klobuchar: 1%

New Hampshire:

Republicans:

Christie: 22%
Huntsman: 16%
Bush: 15%
Rubio: 11%
Ryan: 9%
West: 4%
Sandoval: 4%
Paul: 3%

Democrats:

Cuomo: 22%
Newsom: 16%
Emanuel: 12%
O'Malley: 10%
Gillibrand: 10%
MacCaskill: 5%
Klobuchar: 1%

IOWA ENDORSEMENTS: (Post-Polling)

Republican Governor Kim Reynolds: "I think we have a good, strong field right now and we're going to win back the White House with any of these candidates as our nominee. For me though, I'll be voting for Governor Sandoval."

Democratic Congressman David Loebsack: "Rahm Emanuel help President Obama lead for the first two years of his Presidency and now we need him to lead for the next four years!"

Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley: "I really like Kirsten Gillibrand and Rahm Emanuel, and its hard for me to say this but I'm leaning towards Mayor Emanuel."

Republican Senator Chuck Grassley: "I don't know much about Governor Sandoval but he's very intriguing. We're going to have someone who can win in November."

(Note: It just happened to work out this way, the numbers between Gillibrand and Emanuel really were within a few decimals of each other.


Special Treat:

A few states that you may be interested in who is leading (as of right now...)

Democrats:

Dark Green - Gavin Newsom
Light Blue - Kirsten Gillibrand
Pink - Claire MacCaskill
Yellow - Rahm Emanuel
Red - Andrew Cuomo
Dark Blue = Martin O'Malley

Republicans

Dark Red - Brian Sandoval
Dark Green - Marco Rubio
Pale Yellow - Jon Huntsman
Red - Chris Christie
Dark Blue - Paul Ryan
Light Blue - Jeb Bush

[sentinel]

Breaking News: Rand Paul and Amy Klobuchar will end their campaign for the Presidency tomorrow (They were completely inactive on here). Endorsements from these candidates are not expected.

In addition, President Obama will nominate someone to fill the late Justice Scalia's seat soon (later tonight).

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Next person who forgets to mention their candidates name in their post gets endorsed by Richard Simmons and Perez Hilton. Test me.

[sentinel]

So, I looked back and took over all your posts and took comprehensiveness more into account since you guys are putting a lot of effort into these. Note, this isn't whether or not I agree with you on a policy but if you do manage to throw something absurd in there, it won't help you in the polls.

In addition, Rand Paul and Amy Klobuchar are out of the race. I hoped I had missed a post by one of them, but they didn't post at all.

October 13 through 19 starts now.

National Polling:

Republicans:

Bush: 18%
Huntsman: 13%
Rubio: 12%
Sandoval: 10%
Christie: 10%
West: 9%

Democrats:

Emanuel: 20%
Gillibrand: 20%
Cuomo: 18%
O'Malley: 14%
MacCaskill: 11%

Iowa:

Republicans:

Christie: 17%
Bush: 16%
Sandoval: 16%
Ryan: 13%
West: 12%
Rubio: 10%
Huntsman: 7%

Democrats:

Gillibrand: 22%
Emanuel: 20%
MacCaskill: 17%
Cuomo: 14%
Newsom: 10%
O'Malley: 9%

New Hampshire:

Republicans:

Christie: 19%
Huntsman: 18%
Bush: 17%
Rubio: 11%
Ryan: 9%
Sandoval: 4%
West: 3%


Democrats:

Cuomo: 20%
Newsom: 14%
Emanuel: 12%
Gillibrand: 12%
O'Malley: 10%
MacCaskill: 5%

First South Carolina Poll of the Season

Republicans:

Christie: 17%
Bush: 16%
Rubio: 14%
Ryan: 12%
Sandoval: 10%
West: 9%
Huntsman: 5%

Democrats:

Cuomo: 19%
MacCaskill: 15%
Gillibrand: 13%
O'Malley: 11%
Emanuel: 6%
Newsom: 4%

That does it for polls today!

Oh wait...

Obama Approval: 46%
Unemployment: ~7% (trending down)
Inflation: 3.5% (trending up)


Additional Narrative:

Cap & Trade: The Senate passes the Cap & Trade bill with Vice President Joe Biden casting the tie-breaking vote. The House, in a miraculous slim margin, also passes a similar cap & trade bill with a handful of Republicans crossing over. The House bill passed with nearly 75 Republican amendments. President Obama says that he is hopeful that a compromise bill can be crafted but refuses to comment on the Republican amendments to the bill (some of which you can assume is costly pork barrel spending).

Justice Scalia: President Obama nominates Richard C. Tallman a federal judge for the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit appointed by President Bill Clinton. A confirmation battle is expected.

Middle East: Iran says if India continues mobilizing then Iran will go to war. Experts that this is the closest the two countries have ever been to war and that the threat is real.

Afghanistan: The Afghan government is experiencing serious problems, even more so than usual, with corruption and tension between its military and "elected" officials. There are no more US troops in Afghanistan.

[sentinel]

Posting about debates on the rules topic in a minute. Would like your feedback.

[sentinel]

IOWA DEBATE

Answer these 3 questions. Feel free to rebuke something someone else in your party (or the other party) has said.

1) The Supreme Court has made many controversial decisions in the past decade or so including Bush v. Gore and Citizens United. What rulings of this past decade or so do you disagree most with? What kind of judges would you appoint to the bench?

2) President Obama has not made any public comments about the rise of inflation in the United States. What would you do to combat inflation?

3) You get a phone call at 3am, and you find out that Iran and India have gone to war. What steps do you take? How does the United States respond?

Answer these before midnight EST

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Marco Rubio Debate 1.
1. I view the supreme court's desicion on Obamacare to be the worst case in the last decade. Socialized medicine just increases the size of the government at a time it needs to be smaller and less invasive. You cannot ruin the free- market aspect of insurance it is simply hurting our nation and is making more people depend on the government fom cradle to grave. I have continued to fight against it even in the days following the ruling. Also if I were to appoint someone to the Supreme Court I would make it someone with a good sense of character and honest, true values that our nation desprately needs.

2. For me the answer is simple. Stop making so much money. It is common sense that when you keep pumping money from the government around it hurts prices. President Obama needs to adress this issue and not go around as if its business as usual. People won't have to worry about this if I am president becuase I will reduce government spending and make it more manageable by forcing it to do one of its original purposes such as managing this horrible problem.

3. When I get that call at 3 A.M. I announce the U.S. will take a hard stance against Iran. If it was best for our nation to defend our allies after consulting with generals and other military personel than I would do so or if it is decided it is too risky I would use other measures, not necessarily declaring war but providing support for India.

OOC: Its only for Democrats.

IT'S FOR EVERYONE. When I rate the answers I'll divide it separately between parties.

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Marco Rubio Debate 1.
1. I view the supreme court's desicion on Obamacare to be the worst case in the last decade. Socialized medicine just increases the size of the government at a time it needs to be smaller and less invasive. You cannot ruin the free- market aspect of insurance it is simply hurting our nation and is making more people depend on the government fom cradle to grave. I have continued to fight against it even in the days following the ruling. Also if I were to appoint someone to the Supreme Court I would make it someone with a good sense of character and honest, true values that our nation desprately needs.

2. For me the answer is simple. Stop making so much money. It is common sense that when you keep pumping money from the government around it hurts prices. President Obama needs to adress this issue and not go around as if its business as usual. People won't have to worry about this if I am president becuase I will reduce government spending and make it more manageable by forcing it to do one of its original purposes such as managing this horrible problem.

3. When I get that call at 3 A.M. I announce the U.S. will take a hard stance against Iran. If it was best for our nation to defend our allies after consulting with generals and other military personel than I would do so or if it is decided it is too risky I would use other measures, not necessarily declaring war but providing support for India.

OOC: Its only for Democrats.

IT'S FOR EVERYONE. When I rate the answers I'll divide it separately between parties.

You never clarified that, no need for caps

I did that for attention purposes, not for yelling via internet purposes lol. I didn't say otherwise, so I thought it was obvious, but whatever. Hopefully everyone will reply, if they don't then I'll extend it til tomorrow.

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Won't have an update tonight. October 20 to 26 starts at midnight. I'll post new polls and/or narrative tomorrow (definitely narrative).

Everyone has tomorrow to respond to the debate question as well. I could have been more specific about that --sorry.

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When do you want the debates by?

By 11:59pm EST on February 2nd

[sentinel]

Sorry for the late update.

Polling for the beginning of this week (October 20 through 27)

National

Republicans

Bush: 18%
Christie: 13%
Rubio: 13%
Sandoval: 12%
West: 9%
Huntsman: 9%
Ryan: 6%

Democrats

Gillibrand: 20%
Emanuel: 20%
Cuomo: 18%
MacCaskill: 14%
O'Malley: 11%
Newsom: 9%

South Carolina

Republicans

Christie: 18%
Bush: 17%
Rubio: 14%
West: 11%
Sandoval: 10%
Ryan: 9%

Democrats

Cuomo: 18%
MacCaskill: 17%
Gillibrand: 14%
O'Malley: 8%
Emanuel: 7%
Newsom: 2%

New Hampshire

Republicans

Christie: 19%
Huntsman: 18%
Bush: 18%
Rubio: 12%
Ryan: 7%
Sandoval: 5%
West: 3%

Democrats:

Cuomo: 23%
Emanuel: 15%
Gillibrand: 15%
Newsom: 10%
O'Malley: 7%
MacCaskill: 5%

Tomorrow will include how you did in the debate. Not participating in the debates is going to equate to a last place performance since I gave 2 days for it.




Narrative:

On October 22nd, 2015 we saw India make its first airstrikes on Iranian military sites. Irans military was poised ready to strike back but has not yet. The UN along with NATO are pushing Iran and India not to engage each other but it seems futile. Pakistani officials are worried that India will try to pass through their territory or simply come for them next. Pakistan is beginning to saber rattle and pushing Afghanistan to choose sides if a war between Pakistan and India were to break out.

On October 23rd, Iran retaliated the airstrikes with several missiles being fired at targets in India which miss their targets and hit civilian areas. While India called its own strikes "preemptive" they have called the Iranian artillery bombardment an act of war. India has demanded that Pakistan grant its troop access or India says it "has other means to take care of Iran."

In the United States, President Obama has been turned down by both sides to handle negotiations. His approval this week, drops to 40%.

Cape & trade goes back to the floor of both houses and it passes in the Senate while failing in the House. Afterwards the President calls Congress "broken."  Speaker John Boehner calls the President's leadership "broken" not the Congress in response.

The President's nominee for the Supreme Court will be voted on in November.

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OOC: India and Iran do not share a border, so I must of missed something earlier. Has India taken over a part of Pakistan?

Sh*t I've been playing too much Hearts of Iron/Arsenal of Democracy. I'll go back and fix that narrative a bit.

(There is a full update on the previous page!)

[sentinel]

October 27 - November 2, 2015 starts now

Later in the day:

Polls
Narrative
More Iowa/New Hampshire Endorsements