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And the polls seem to vary widely about how much support Romney would get among Democrats: Quinnipiac says only 6%, Mason-Dixon and Suffolk say 15-17%.
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According to Chuck Todd's "How Obama Won", both Ds and Rs went 87%-12% for their party's nominee in Florida whereas MD has Obama getting 77% and Romney getting 15% of Dems with 8% undecided. I suspect the race is a little closer than what MD has it, which puts it in toss-up territory statistically. Obama's up 3% with independents with 13% undecided. He won that demographic by 7% in 2008 so he's not running as well with them.
My gut tells me that this will be a tough state for Obama because of FL housing market that seems to be getting blamed disproportionately on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae ("GSEs") based on the poll's results on Newt's consulting role with the GSEs. That's not what actually happened as non-GSEs (Wall Street and other firms) accounted for 76% of the sub-prime/Alt-A mortgages that were purchased which fueled the real estate bubble.
