AZ-08 special election: Primary 4/17, General 6/12

[Miles]

Hey krazen!! We missed you here last night!

[Miles]

Ya know what krazen, you can attack PPP all you want, but you have to at least give it some credit because it was the only public pollster with the guts to go into the field there. At the very minimum, it showed that the race was Lean/Likely Barber.

[DrScholl]

No pollster can exactly nail down margins, especially when there are undecideds in the poll and a margin of error. At this point, it's just nitpicking to claim PPP was wrong.

PPP actually showed Suzanne Bonamici up 52-41 in OR-1 before the election, she ending up winning 54-40, which was a case of PPP slightly overstating a Republican. It's polling, it doesn't always nail down margins exactly. Anyway, Kelly still lost, so it's all a moot point.

[krazen1211]

Yes, of course, its very brave of them to do so. It's certainly easier for accurate pollsters to poll less than more.

Of course, as a result of Amendment 1, Walker, and Kelly, PPP has now made Nate Silver's House Effect list.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/statistical-noise-in-election-polls/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[krazen1211]

No pollster can exactly nail down margins, especially when there are undecideds in the poll and a margin of error. At this point, it's just nitpicking to claim PPP was wrong.

PPP actually showed Suzanne Bonamici up 52-41 in OR-1 before the election, she ending up winning 54-40, which was a case of PPP slightly overstating a Republican. It's polling, it doesn't always nail down margins exactly. Anyway, Kelly still lost, so it's all a moot point.

And yet when WAA did exactly the same thing as PPP just did (Walker +12), it was a little more than nitpicking.

It's very funny how you spinsters dance.

[xavier110]

No pollster can exactly nail down margins, especially when there are undecideds in the poll and a margin of error. At this point, it's just nitpicking to claim PPP was wrong.

PPP actually showed Suzanne Bonamici up 52-41 in OR-1 before the election, she ending up winning 54-40, which was a case of PPP slightly overstating a Republican. It's polling, it doesn't always nail down margins exactly. Anyway, Kelly still lost, so it's all a moot point.

And yet when WAA did exactly the same thing as PPP just did (Walker +12), it was a little more than nitpicking.

It's very funny how you spinsters dance.

Releasing an outlier poll (+12 when everyone else was around +3-6) for a well-polled statewide race is entirely different from being the only friggin' outlet to release a poll for a congressional race.

[krazen1211]

No pollster can exactly nail down margins, especially when there are undecideds in the poll and a margin of error. At this point, it's just nitpicking to claim PPP was wrong.

PPP actually showed Suzanne Bonamici up 52-41 in OR-1 before the election, she ending up winning 54-40, which was a case of PPP slightly overstating a Republican. It's polling, it doesn't always nail down margins exactly. Anyway, Kelly still lost, so it's all a moot point.

And yet when WAA did exactly the same thing as PPP just did (Walker +12), it was a little more than nitpicking.

It's very funny how you spinsters dance.

Releasing an outlier poll (+12 when everyone else was around +3-6) for a well-polled statewide race is entirely different from being the only friggin' outlet to release a poll for a congressional race.

Everyone? Actually nobody except 1 was below +5. Guess who that 1 was?



WeAskAmerica   6/3 - 6/3   1570 LV   54   42   Walker +12
PPP (D)   6/2 - 6/3   1226 LV   50   47   Walker +3
Marquette University   5/23 - 5/26   600 LV   52   45   Walker +7
WeAskAmerica   5/23 - 5/23   1409 LV   54   42   Walker +12
WPR/St. Norbert   5/17 - 5/22   406 LV   50   45   Walker +5
Daily Kos/PPP (D)   5/11 - 5/13   LV   50   45   Walker +5
WeAskAmerica   5/13 - 5/13   1219 LV   52   43   Walker +9
Marquette University   5/9 - 5/12   600 LV   50   44   Walker +6
Rasmussen Reports   5/9 - 5/9   500 LV   50   45   Walker +5

[Umengus]

for the second time in one week, PPP overestimates D by 4-5... And when you look at their Obama-Romney polls (national or state), you see the same problem: too many democrats in their polls.

[xavier110]

No pollster can exactly nail down margins, especially when there are undecideds in the poll and a margin of error. At this point, it's just nitpicking to claim PPP was wrong.

PPP actually showed Suzanne Bonamici up 52-41 in OR-1 before the election, she ending up winning 54-40, which was a case of PPP slightly overstating a Republican. It's polling, it doesn't always nail down margins exactly. Anyway, Kelly still lost, so it's all a moot point.

And yet when WAA did exactly the same thing as PPP just did (Walker +12), it was a little more than nitpicking.

It's very funny how you spinsters dance.

Releasing an outlier poll (+12 when everyone else was around +3-6) for a well-polled statewide race is entirely different from being the only friggin' outlet to release a poll for a congressional race.

Everyone? Actually nobody except 1 was below +5. Guess who that 1 was?



PPP (D)   6/2 - 6/3   1226 LV   50   47   Walker +3
Marquette University   5/23 - 5/26   600 LV   52   45   Walker +7
WPR/St. Norbert   5/17 - 5/22   406 LV   50   45   Walker +5
Daily Kos/PPP (D)   5/11 - 5/13   LV   50   45   Walker +5
Marquette University   5/9 - 5/12   600 LV   50   44   Walker +6
Rasmussen Reports   5/9 - 5/9   500 LV   50   45   Walker +5

To prove my point, I have deleted WAA polls from this list. Last time I checked, +12 is further away from the consensus spread than +3. Keep trying!!

[Torie]

Yes, of course, its very brave of them to do so. It's certainly easier for accurate pollsters to poll less than more.

Of course, as a result of Amendment 1, Walker, and Kelly, PPP has now made Nate Silver's House Effect list.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/statistical-noise-in-election-polls/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

How much did PPP overstate Barber's margin?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

+5. Its estimation of Barber's vote share was +1, Kelly's was -4, and the Green's was +2.

[Meeker]

Certain people in this thread need to take a statistics class.

[minionofmidas]

All of them.

[Miles]

Barber was sworn in today.