AZ-08 special election: Primary 4/17, General 6/12

[CARLHAYDEN]

Have they thought about what might happen if Giffords doesn't endorse anyone?

Giffords endorsed Barber some time ago.

[Meeker]

PPP says:

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[Rowan]

Well damn.

[Brittain33]

No one can accuse PPP of not putting their reputation on the line, at least. Curious how the election results map to their prediction. 

[Miles]

PPP says:

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This is what I would expect from a Demcoratic hack firm

[Tender Branson]

If they say "Dem hold", it could point to a 53-44 PPP result.

[RogueBeaver]

National Journal profile.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/06/previewing-the-105.php

[Tender Branson]

PPP says Barber winning by double-digits.

Numbers out in the next hour.

[Tender Branson]

Q1 The candidates in the special election for Congress are Democrat Ron Barber, Republican Jesse Kelly, and Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Ron Barber ..................................................... 53%
Jesse Kelly...................................................... 41%
Charlie Manolakis ........................................... 4%

...

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ron Barber?

Favorable........................................................ 54%
Unfavorable .................................................... 38%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jesse Kelly?

Favorable........................................................ 37%
Unfavorable .................................................... 59%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 50%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gabrielle Giffords?

Favorable........................................................ 67%
Unfavorable .................................................... 24%

Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain................................................... 44%
Barack Obama................................................ 50%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ........................................................ 42%
Republican...................................................... 36%
Independent/Other.......................................... 22%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_611.pdf

[krazen1211]

Well, let them think that I guess.

[Tender Branson]

Meh, why did they include that 3rd-party candidate again ...

We all know that he ends up with only 0.5% or 1% ...

So, here's my prediction:

54% Barber
45% Kelly
  1% Manolakis

[Torie]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

[krazen1211]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

[Mr.Phips]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

Kelly got 49% in the worst Dem year since 1894, when Democrats stayed home in droves and pretty much every Republican turned out. 

[krazen1211]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

Kelly got 49% in the worst Dem year since 1894, when Democrats stayed home in droves and pretty much every Republican turned out.  

Unfortunately that line is far less true than the left claims it is.


As of last Wednesday, the GOP returned more ballots in Pima County than the Democrats 52/48 in the 2 party vote. That leaves out Cochise County which has many more Republicans.

http://explorernews.com/news/article_6abef810-af3b-11e1-883b-0019bb2963f4.html

[Miles]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

Registration in the new AZ-02 is only 34.7 R, 34.2 D, 31.1 I. The new district, of course (your favorite phrase), is very similar to the old one.

[Torie]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

Registration in the new AZ-02 is only 34.7 R, 34.2 D, 31.1 I. The new district, of course (your favorite phrase), is very similar to the old one.

The new district is 3 points more Dem actually. AZ has a quite skillful Dem gerrymander.

[tpfkaw]

the worst Dem year since 1894

You mean the worst Dem year since 1946 (or 2004 in Arizona).

[Miles]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

Registration in the new AZ-02 is only 34.7 R, 34.2 D, 31.1 I. The new district, of course (your favorite phrase), is very similar to the old one.

The new district is 3 points more Dem actually. AZ has a quite skillful Dem gerrymander.

Yes. But in terms of the constituent turnover, the new 2nd keeps about 90% of the old 8th.

[krazen1211]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

Registration in the new AZ-02 is only 34.7 R, 34.2 D, 31.1 I. The new district, of course (your favorite phrase), is very similar to the old one.

The new district is 3 points more Dem actually. AZ has a quite skillful Dem gerrymander.

Yes. But in terms of the constituent turnover, the new 2nd keeps about 90% of the old 8th.

Your point is very peculiar. Why are you talking about voter registration in the new district, when we already know the actual voter distribution (R+4) in at least most of the actual district?

[krazen1211]

PPP predicts a very close race:

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Like old times.


Of course, they tried to CYA much later with this junk poll.

PPP out with their final poll on the race:

The candidates in the special election for Congress are Republican Mark Amodei, Independent American Timothy Fasano, Independent Helmuth Lehmann, and Democrat Kate Marshall. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Mark Amodei................................................... 50%
Kate Marshall.................................................. 37%
Timothy Fasano .............................................. 4%
Helmuth Lehmann........................................... 4%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

[DrScholl]

Republicans turned in more ballots, but you can't assume that all of them voted for Kelly, there are moderate Republicans in the district who can crossover.

PPP got CA-36 and OR-1 right, despite the same old complaining that the polls were too biased. No reason to think this one isn't right. Kelly's approvals are horrible, no one wins with those sort of numbers. It's over.

[krazen1211]

Well, either that or it could have been a bunch of Democrats who called the blog to discredit the Magellan company ...

That's a bit of a stretch. You have to admit that the poll was very lopsided. It's doubtful that Marshall will get less than 40% of the vote, it's not like she's some random candidate. PPP has the a better record of accuracy of Magellan, anyway.

I like your style

[RI]

With the sympathy vote and the fact that Kelly's a bit of an ass, it's hard to see the Dems not winning this race.

[DrScholl]

I like your style

Way to change the subject by digging up old posts. I don't claim to be right about everything every single time. Anyway, this is not about NV-2, it's about AZ-8. PPP nailed the margins almost exactly for CA-36 and OR-1, both which were touted to be much closer than they turned out to be. There is too much accuracy to keep complaining the PPP is wrong all the time.