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| | |-+  AZ-08 special election: Primary 4/17, General 6/12
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Author Topic: AZ-08 special election: Primary 4/17, General 6/12  (Read 6938 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« on: January 29, 2012, 08:53:21 pm »
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Time for another of these things.

Who's running:

Democrats - former Giffords district director Ron Barber.
Republicans - State Sen. Ronald Antenori, '10 nominee Jesse Kelly, Air Force vet Martha McSally, businessman Dave Sitton.
Green - community activist Charles Manolakis.

Filing deadline is 2/27.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2012, 06:42:00 am by JohnnyLongtorso »Logged
krazen1211
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« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2012, 09:06:13 pm »
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R+1.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2012, 09:10:43 pm »
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R+1.

Congrats, krazen! I'm so excited for you!
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Scott
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« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2012, 02:38:46 pm »
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Definitely not a good time for anyone to claim victory here, since Giffords just resigned last week and we currently have no polling data, yet.
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nclib
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« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2012, 11:03:20 am »
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I wonder whether this election will be simply be on candidates and parties like most other special elections, or will Giffords' circumstances give a boost to the Democrat (even if only slight) above what it would be on paper.
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2012, 03:59:53 pm »
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State Rep. Matt Heinz is running for the dem. nomination. He's gay and is only 34. It would be great to have him representing AZ-8 Smiley

http://atr.rollcall.com/arizona-first-democrat-jumps-into-race-to-replace-giffords/
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Joe Republic
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« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2012, 04:03:13 pm »

Hey AZ-08, stop hogging all the openly gay congressmen.
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I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today, but we'll see.
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2012, 05:45:24 pm »
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Hey AZ-08, stop hogging all the openly gay congressmen.

Oh, that's true. The GOP congressman who decided to retire and supported Giffords in 2006 was gay!
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2012, 10:41:14 pm »
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Giffords' district director Ron Barber has entered the race as a caretaker candidate for the remainder of the term, causing Matt Heinz to drop out (but he's still running in the new AZ-02). That's kind of confusing.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2012, 01:44:20 pm »
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Maybe he wants Giffords' endorsement in General. But it would be better to have a leg on seniority.
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Fidelix 28
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2012, 09:02:54 am »
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Four candidates have filed so far; Monday is the filing deadline. Kelly might not make it onto the ballot, he didn't put in much more than the minimum number of signatures required.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2012, 09:05:53 am by JohnnyLongtorso »Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2012, 11:33:04 pm »
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Two more candidates filed by the deadline, Republican Martha McSally and Green Charles Manolakis.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2012, 07:30:39 pm »
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Ron Barber has raised over half a million dollars.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2012, 04:42:28 pm »
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Here's the fundraising roundup, courtesy DKE:


Ron Barber (D): $549K raised, $85K spent, $464K cash-on-hand
Dave Sitton (R): $261K raised, $128K spent, $132K cash-on-hand
Jesse Kelly (R): $210K raised, $180K spent, $49K cash-on-hand
Martha McSally (R): $133K raised, $89K spent, $44K cash-on-hand


Antenori, for whatever reason, hasn't filed a report.
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morgieb
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« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2012, 06:05:34 pm »
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Surely the sympathy vote will help the Democrats here.
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Svensson
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« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2012, 06:28:18 pm »
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Antenori, for whatever reason, hasn't filed a report.

I believe he wound up running in another district. Redisctricting, or something to that tune.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #16 on: April 10, 2012, 07:30:15 pm »
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Turns out Antenori only raised $37k.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #17 on: April 17, 2012, 07:08:15 am »
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Primary is today.
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Svensson
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« Reply #18 on: April 17, 2012, 07:40:55 pm »
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This ought to be interesting.
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redcommander
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« Reply #19 on: April 17, 2012, 08:46:01 pm »
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Hoping McSally pulls it off.
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Torie
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« Reply #20 on: April 17, 2012, 09:21:05 pm »
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Hoping McSally pulls it off.

Alas, I assume that Kelly has it in lockdown for the Pubs.  I think the odds are about 3-2 that the Dems will hold the seat. Even if Kelly won the special, he might have trouble holding the seat in November since it will be a couple of points more Dem, thanks to the "independent" commission drawing a Dem gerrymander.
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Svensson
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« Reply #21 on: April 17, 2012, 10:44:19 pm »
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Anyone have results?
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #22 on: April 17, 2012, 11:02:12 pm »
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http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/37929/78545/en/summary.html
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Please seek a 5150 if your candidate loses.
CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #23 on: April 18, 2012, 01:43:53 pm »
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Here is some data to frame the issue:

First, in the last general election (2010), the Democrat received 49% of the vote, the Republican 47% and the Libertarian 4%.

Second, this year there is a Green party candidate, but no Libertarian candidate.

Third, the gap between Republican and Democrat party voter registration is greater than in 2010.

Registration      2010       2012        Change

D                   140,114    133,751     -  6,363
L                       2,843        2,646      -    200
R                   159,045    159,200           155
G                         859            793     -       66
O                  124,649     128,269        3,620
T                   427,818     424,718      - 3.100
« Last Edit: April 18, 2012, 01:58:31 pm by CARLHAYDEN »Logged

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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #24 on: April 19, 2012, 03:40:10 am »
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Hoping McSally pulls it off.

Alas, I assume that Kelly has it in lockdown for the Pubs.  I think the odds are about 3-2 that the Dems will hold the seat. Even if Kelly won the special, he might have trouble holding the seat in November since it will be a couple of points more Dem, thanks to the "independent" commission drawing a Dem gerrymander.
Also, Jesse Kelly is a nut who'd need a quite weak opponent to stand a chance here absent wave conditions.
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