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| | |-+  AZ-08 special election: Primary 4/17, General 6/12
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Author Topic: AZ-08 special election: Primary 4/17, General 6/12  (Read 10427 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« on: January 29, 2012, 08:53:21 pm »
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Time for another of these things.

Who's running:

Democrats - former Giffords district director Ron Barber.
Republicans - State Sen. Ronald Antenori, '10 nominee Jesse Kelly, Air Force vet Martha McSally, businessman Dave Sitton.
Green - community activist Charles Manolakis.

Filing deadline is 2/27.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2012, 06:42:00 am by JohnnyLongtorso »Logged
krazen1211
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« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2012, 09:06:13 pm »
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R+1.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2012, 09:10:43 pm »
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R+1.

Congrats, krazen! I'm so excited for you!
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Scott
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« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2012, 02:38:46 pm »
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Definitely not a good time for anyone to claim victory here, since Giffords just resigned last week and we currently have no polling data, yet.
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Gabriel Cáceres

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nclib
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« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2012, 11:03:20 am »
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I wonder whether this election will be simply be on candidates and parties like most other special elections, or will Giffords' circumstances give a boost to the Democrat (even if only slight) above what it would be on paper.
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« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2012, 03:59:53 pm »
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State Rep. Matt Heinz is running for the dem. nomination. He's gay and is only 34. It would be great to have him representing AZ-8 Smiley

http://atr.rollcall.com/arizona-first-democrat-jumps-into-race-to-replace-giffords/
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Joe Republic
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« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2012, 04:03:13 pm »
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Hey AZ-08, stop hogging all the openly gay congressmen.
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« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2012, 05:45:24 pm »
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Hey AZ-08, stop hogging all the openly gay congressmen.

Oh, that's true. The GOP congressman who decided to retire and supported Giffords in 2006 was gay!
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2012, 10:41:14 pm »
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Giffords' district director Ron Barber has entered the race as a caretaker candidate for the remainder of the term, causing Matt Heinz to drop out (but he's still running in the new AZ-02). That's kind of confusing.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2012, 01:44:20 pm »
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Maybe he wants Giffords' endorsement in General. But it would be better to have a leg on seniority.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2012, 09:02:54 am »
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Four candidates have filed so far; Monday is the filing deadline. Kelly might not make it onto the ballot, he didn't put in much more than the minimum number of signatures required.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2012, 09:05:53 am by JohnnyLongtorso »Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2012, 11:33:04 pm »
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Two more candidates filed by the deadline, Republican Martha McSally and Green Charles Manolakis.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2012, 07:30:39 pm »
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Ron Barber has raised over half a million dollars.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2012, 04:42:28 pm »
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Here's the fundraising roundup, courtesy DKE:


Ron Barber (D): $549K raised, $85K spent, $464K cash-on-hand
Dave Sitton (R): $261K raised, $128K spent, $132K cash-on-hand
Jesse Kelly (R): $210K raised, $180K spent, $49K cash-on-hand
Martha McSally (R): $133K raised, $89K spent, $44K cash-on-hand


Antenori, for whatever reason, hasn't filed a report.
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morgieb
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« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2012, 06:05:34 pm »
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Surely the sympathy vote will help the Democrats here.
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Svensson
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« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2012, 06:28:18 pm »
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Antenori, for whatever reason, hasn't filed a report.

I believe he wound up running in another district. Redisctricting, or something to that tune.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #16 on: April 10, 2012, 07:30:15 pm »
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Turns out Antenori only raised $37k.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #17 on: April 17, 2012, 07:08:15 am »
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Primary is today.
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Svensson
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« Reply #18 on: April 17, 2012, 07:40:55 pm »
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This ought to be interesting.
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redcommander
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« Reply #19 on: April 17, 2012, 08:46:01 pm »
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Hoping McSally pulls it off.
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Torie
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« Reply #20 on: April 17, 2012, 09:21:05 pm »
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Hoping McSally pulls it off.

Alas, I assume that Kelly has it in lockdown for the Pubs.  I think the odds are about 3-2 that the Dems will hold the seat. Even if Kelly won the special, he might have trouble holding the seat in November since it will be a couple of points more Dem, thanks to the "independent" commission drawing a Dem gerrymander.
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« Reply #21 on: April 17, 2012, 10:44:19 pm »
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Anyone have results?
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« Reply #22 on: April 17, 2012, 11:02:12 pm »
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http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/37929/78545/en/summary.html
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #23 on: April 18, 2012, 01:43:53 pm »
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Here is some data to frame the issue:

First, in the last general election (2010), the Democrat received 49% of the vote, the Republican 47% and the Libertarian 4%.

Second, this year there is a Green party candidate, but no Libertarian candidate.

Third, the gap between Republican and Democrat party voter registration is greater than in 2010.

Registration      2010       2012        Change

D                   140,114    133,751     -  6,363
L                       2,843        2,646      -    200
R                   159,045    159,200           155
G                         859            793     -       66
O                  124,649     128,269        3,620
T                   427,818     424,718      - 3.100
« Last Edit: April 18, 2012, 01:58:31 pm by CARLHAYDEN »Logged

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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #24 on: April 19, 2012, 03:40:10 am »
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Hoping McSally pulls it off.

Alas, I assume that Kelly has it in lockdown for the Pubs.  I think the odds are about 3-2 that the Dems will hold the seat. Even if Kelly won the special, he might have trouble holding the seat in November since it will be a couple of points more Dem, thanks to the "independent" commission drawing a Dem gerrymander.
Also, Jesse Kelly is a nut who'd need a quite weak opponent to stand a chance here absent wave conditions.
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If I'm shown as having been active here recently it's either because I've been using the gallery, because I've been using the search engine looking up something from way back, or because I've been reading the most excellent UK by-elections thread again.
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