AZ-08 special election: Primary 4/17, General 6/12

[DrScholl]

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/37929/78545/en/summary.html

[DrScholl]

Republicans turned in more ballots, but you can't assume that all of them voted for Kelly, there are moderate Republicans in the district who can crossover.

PPP got CA-36 and OR-1 right, despite the same old complaining that the polls were too biased. No reason to think this one isn't right. Kelly's approvals are horrible, no one wins with those sort of numbers. It's over.

[DrScholl]

I like your style

Way to change the subject by digging up old posts. I don't claim to be right about everything every single time. Anyway, this is not about NV-2, it's about AZ-8. PPP nailed the margins almost exactly for CA-36 and OR-1, both which were touted to be much closer than they turned out to be. There is too much accuracy to keep complaining the PPP is wrong all the time.

[DrScholl]

Polls don't close until the next hour, in less than 20 minutes.

[DrScholl]

Looks like PPP wasn't so wrong after all.

[DrScholl]

Looks like PPP wasn't so wrong after all.

They predicted 53-41-4, a 12 point margin. Barber's now winning by about 8 points. This is comparable to their performance in WI, I think.

That poll included 3% undecideds, they probably broke toward Kelly toward some degree. All in all, it was an accurate poll.

[DrScholl]

No pollster can exactly nail down margins, especially when there are undecideds in the poll and a margin of error. At this point, it's just nitpicking to claim PPP was wrong.

PPP actually showed Suzanne Bonamici up 52-41 in OR-1 before the election, she ending up winning 54-40, which was a case of PPP slightly overstating a Republican. It's polling, it doesn't always nail down margins exactly. Anyway, Kelly still lost, so it's all a moot point.