AZ-08 special election: Primary 4/17, General 6/12

[krazen1211]

R+1.

[krazen1211]

Well, let them think that I guess.

[krazen1211]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

[krazen1211]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

Kelly got 49% in the worst Dem year since 1894, when Democrats stayed home in droves and pretty much every Republican turned out.  

Unfortunately that line is far less true than the left claims it is.


As of last Wednesday, the GOP returned more ballots in Pima County than the Democrats 52/48 in the 2 party vote. That leaves out Cochise County which has many more Republicans.

http://explorernews.com/news/article_6abef810-af3b-11e1-883b-0019bb2963f4.html

[krazen1211]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

Registration in the new AZ-02 is only 34.7 R, 34.2 D, 31.1 I. The new district, of course (your favorite phrase), is very similar to the old one.

The new district is 3 points more Dem actually. AZ has a quite skillful Dem gerrymander.

Yes. But in terms of the constituent turnover, the new 2nd keeps about 90% of the old 8th.

Your point is very peculiar. Why are you talking about voter registration in the new district, when we already know the actual voter distribution (R+4) in at least most of the actual district?

[krazen1211]

PPP predicts a very close race:

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Like old times.


Of course, they tried to CYA much later with this junk poll.

PPP out with their final poll on the race:

The candidates in the special election for Congress are Republican Mark Amodei, Independent American Timothy Fasano, Independent Helmuth Lehmann, and Democrat Kate Marshall. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Mark Amodei................................................... 50%
Kate Marshall.................................................. 37%
Timothy Fasano .............................................. 4%
Helmuth Lehmann........................................... 4%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

[krazen1211]

Well, either that or it could have been a bunch of Democrats who called the blog to discredit the Magellan company ...

That's a bit of a stretch. You have to admit that the poll was very lopsided. It's doubtful that Marshall will get less than 40% of the vote, it's not like she's some random candidate. PPP has the a better record of accuracy of Magellan, anyway.

I like your style

[krazen1211]

GOP turnout in Pima County has surged. Of course Kelly doesn't actually need to win Pima County this time.

http://www.maranaweeklynews.com/v2_news_articles.php?heading=0&page=72&story_id=3410

Democratic 66,947 ballots mailed 47,065 ballots verified 70 percent

Republican 72,745 ballots mailed 50,980 ballots verified 70 percent

[krazen1211]

1 reason why PPP had it a 12-point lead and now it's 8 points:

According to the internals of the poll, that Green guy gained more votes from Republicans than from Democrats. How likely is that ?

Assuming that this was unlikely and the Green guy - as usual with most 3rd party candidates - got overpolled by 2, the other 2% in reality went to Kelly and Kelly also picked up 2% from the undecideds.

Good analysis, Tender.

Yes, PPP did skew a bit to the left all things considered, but it could hardly be considered a junk poll.

Only if you apply the standard 5 point adjustment.

[krazen1211]

Another vote dump and we're at 52-45. Huh. This was a little unexpected with just Pima left.

It's very amusing to see the canyon size window spinning from the lefties here! Heck, We Ask America was closer with Walker +12.

Apparently WAA put out an 'accurate poll'. How funny!

[krazen1211]

Another vote dump and we're at 52-45. Huh. This was a little unexpected with just Pima left.

It's very amusing to see the canyon size window spinning from the lefties here! Heck, We Ask America was closer with Walker +12.

Apparently WAA put out an 'accurate poll'. How funny!

LoL. We Ask America is a better poster than PPP. OK.

Not if you like liberal biased pollsters, no.

[krazen1211]

I imagine the Democrats only won because of ACORN anyway, right Krazen? So PPP was likely off by much more than the "official" results suggest.

No, they won because their candidate was more appealing to the voting public. Blaming ACORN or citizens united or a boogeyman rarely detracts from such facts.

[krazen1211]

Yes, of course, its very brave of them to do so. It's certainly easier for accurate pollsters to poll less than more.

Of course, as a result of Amendment 1, Walker, and Kelly, PPP has now made Nate Silver's House Effect list.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/statistical-noise-in-election-polls/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[krazen1211]

No pollster can exactly nail down margins, especially when there are undecideds in the poll and a margin of error. At this point, it's just nitpicking to claim PPP was wrong.

PPP actually showed Suzanne Bonamici up 52-41 in OR-1 before the election, she ending up winning 54-40, which was a case of PPP slightly overstating a Republican. It's polling, it doesn't always nail down margins exactly. Anyway, Kelly still lost, so it's all a moot point.

And yet when WAA did exactly the same thing as PPP just did (Walker +12), it was a little more than nitpicking.

It's very funny how you spinsters dance.

[krazen1211]

No pollster can exactly nail down margins, especially when there are undecideds in the poll and a margin of error. At this point, it's just nitpicking to claim PPP was wrong.

PPP actually showed Suzanne Bonamici up 52-41 in OR-1 before the election, she ending up winning 54-40, which was a case of PPP slightly overstating a Republican. It's polling, it doesn't always nail down margins exactly. Anyway, Kelly still lost, so it's all a moot point.

And yet when WAA did exactly the same thing as PPP just did (Walker +12), it was a little more than nitpicking.

It's very funny how you spinsters dance.

Releasing an outlier poll (+12 when everyone else was around +3-6) for a well-polled statewide race is entirely different from being the only friggin' outlet to release a poll for a congressional race.

Everyone? Actually nobody except 1 was below +5. Guess who that 1 was?



WeAskAmerica   6/3 - 6/3   1570 LV   54   42   Walker +12
PPP (D)   6/2 - 6/3   1226 LV   50   47   Walker +3
Marquette University   5/23 - 5/26   600 LV   52   45   Walker +7
WeAskAmerica   5/23 - 5/23   1409 LV   54   42   Walker +12
WPR/St. Norbert   5/17 - 5/22   406 LV   50   45   Walker +5
Daily Kos/PPP (D)   5/11 - 5/13   LV   50   45   Walker +5
WeAskAmerica   5/13 - 5/13   1219 LV   52   43   Walker +9
Marquette University   5/9 - 5/12   600 LV   50   44   Walker +6
Rasmussen Reports   5/9 - 5/9   500 LV   50   45   Walker +5