Texas House Redistricting

[jimrtex]

Harris County lost one district, declining from 25 to 24.  The 2nd figure in each district shows the percentage of the ideal district size for Harris County (170,519).  For example, HD 129 in SE Harris County has 88% of the ideal population, HD 130 in NE Harris County has 148%.

Because Texas grew at a 20% over the decade, this would mean a 100% district poked along at 20%.  But because, the Harris county ideal entitlement only decreased from 24.462 to 24.413, while the integer apportionment decreased from 25 to 24, a 100% district actually increased by 25%.   Only 4 districts, HD 137, 138, 143, and 145, had actual, Michigan-style losses.

While overall the county loses one district, there was enough growth in the two western and northwesternmost districts HD 130 and HD 132, outside Texas 6 and FM 1960, to create an additional district.  Moreover, the three neighboring districts to the east, HD 126, HD 135, and HD 149 don't need any additional population.  If a new district is not created in this area, these districts would have to shift west adding almost 1/3 new constituents, while losing 1/3 of their constituents to the east.

If a district is added in the west, two districts must be removed elsewhere.  By merging two low population districts, we created a localized surplus of about 1/2 a seat that can be distributed among the immediate neighbors, and fewer voters end up being displaced.

The least populous districts in Harris County are 143 and 145 (in red) in southeastern Harris County.  If we add the population of the surrounding districts, 129, 142, 144, 147, and 148, (in pink) we have a population in 7 districts equivalent to 6.00 districts.  While 127 and 128 (in yellow) are technically contiguous to 143, this area is lightly populated due to the Ship Channel and San Jacinto River.  The core of 128 is further east in Baytown, La Porte, and Deer Park, while that of 127 is further north in Kingwood and Atascocita.  Even if these two districts were included, the balancing would be a simple shift between 127 and 128.

143 and 145 are heavily Hispanic.  The surrounding districts are plurality Hispanic, though 142 and 147 are under Black political control, while 144 is represented by an Anglo Republican.  At some point, it will be necessary to start flipping Black-represented districts to Hispanic-represented districts, so adding Hispanics to 142 and 147 is no problem.  By shifting more of Pasadena into 144, it will become more Hispanic, unify most of the city in a single district, and be a competitive district.

138 and 140 (in Green)  are the next smallest pair of adjacent districts.  If we add the 5 districts to the south, 131, 133, 134, 137, and 146, (in Kelly Green) there is the population necessary to create 5.98 districts.  So just like the area in SE Harris County, 7 districts will be combined into 6.  136 and 138 are Republican districts, but shifting 133 and 134 will shore up the two districts, which have sometimes elected Democrats.  131 and 146 are Black-represented districts, it would be my intent to extend 131 northward into 133, and shift 146 southward, so that there is more of an east/west split.  The current alignment is based somewhat on the location of the incumbent's homes, and a more compact alignment is possible.

As noted above, districts 130 and 132 (in goldenrod) will have a 3rd district carved out of their population that is equivalent to 3.03 representatives.  Districts in 135 and 149 (in brown) need little change population.  It might be possible to simplify the border between 149 and 133 and 131, so long as the Asian population, currently 19% is not reduced.

Districts 126, 139, 140, 141, and 150 (in light blue) have a population equivalent to 5.04 districts.  126 has about the correct population for a district and could be maintained similar to 135 and 149, but a more balanced shift through both 126 and 141 to 139 and 140 is possible.  This will move 126 further outside FM-1960, and keep I-45 as a district boundary between 139 and 140.

Districts 127 and 128 (in yellow) in east Harris County have a population equivalent to about 1.97 representatives.   The southern part of 127 is relatively sparsely populated, and has more of a relationship with 128, than 127 which has its population concentrated at the north end, west of the San Jacinto River.  A small tweak between the blue and yellow area (about 5000) will bring them into better population balance.

[jimrtex]

This is the current map, showing the underlying election precincts.



This shows the changes marked as dots.

Southeast - 7 Districts consolidated to 6

In SE Harris County, I followed the initial plan with 145 and 143 being merged, and the surrounding districts taking a little bit around the edges to get up to the target population.

143 (pink) and 145 (yellow-green) are both 86% Hispanic districts, as is the combined district (numbered 145, since it contributes 52% of the new district).

147 (red) adds an area to the west of the Gulf Freeway (I-45) and goes from 38% Hispanic, 38% Black, to 45% Hispanic, 33% Black.   During the past decade, the Hispanic percentage increased by 6%, and the Black percentage decreased by 9%.  If that were to repeat, the district would be 53% Hispanic, 27% Black by 2020.  86% of the new district is is in the current district.

129 (blue) adds an small area, trying to trim a bit of the southern part of 144.  It drops from 56% Anglo to 56% Anglo.  89% of the new district is in the current district.

144 (gold) added more of the northern part of Pasadena and goes from 56% Hispanic, 31% Anglo, to 61% Hispanic, 29% Anglo.  During the past decade, the Hispanic share increased by 19% and the Anglo share by 22%.  88% of the new district is in the current district.

142 (brown) added areas around Cloverleaf, and goes from 45% Hispanic, 39% Black to 48% Hispanic, 36% Black.  During the past decade, the Hispanic percentage increased by 13% and the Black percentage decreased by 10%.  90% of the new district is in the current district.

148 (blue, center of map) adds area in the East End.  It also has changes in the western end where 138 would have looped around the district.  Overall the district changed very little, ending up 59% Hispanic, 30% Anglo.  During the past decade, the Hispanic share had declined from 67% to 59%, as it was the only Harris County district that had an absolute loss in Anglo population., as the area underwent significant gentrification.  71% of the new district is from the old district, 18% from 145 and 143, and 11% from 138.

So while a Hispanic majority district is eliminated, 3 others are pushed towards Hispanic majority status and possible control by the end of the decade.

Southwest and West - 7 districts consolidated to 6

In southwest and west Houston and Harris County, 138 (green) and 136 (orange) were the intended targets of merger, but 138 largely remained intact, and 136 remained the plurality portion (43%) of a re-aligned district.   This simply proves you can't eliminate districts at the edge of an area without extreme gerrymandering with multiple tentacles fragmenting the district.  In reality it was 133 (yellow-green) that was dismantled.

138 (green) added the portion of 136 (orange) north of the Katy Freeway (I-10) in Spring Branch.  This resulted in 138 wrapping around the end of 148.  The northern overhang is a result of a leftover from the 1990s district, when the district was shifted west.  The current district is 51% Hispanic, 34% Anglo, and would become 57% Hispanic, 30% Anglo.  During the past decade, the Hispanic percentage increased by 9%.  71% of the new district is from the current district, with 17% from 136, and 12% from 148.

137 (red) added areas to its north from 136 to reach Westheimer, and one precinct to the west to get to the necessary population.  The current district is 64% Hispanic, 12% Anglo, 13% Black, and 11% Asian, and would become 59% Hispanic, 15% Anglo, 14% Black, and 11% Asian.  82% of the new district is from the current district.

134 (light blue) added areas from 136 just outside the West Loop (I-610).  The current district is 70% Anglo, which is not changed.  86% of the new district is in the current district.

I originally intended that 131 (pink) would take area from 133 (yellow-green) and pass some of it off to 146 (purple), while 133 would take up the remainder of (136).  I also decided to add a couple of precincts from the extreme southeastern extension of 149 (brown).  But I ended up with paired incumbents.  Both incumbents in 131 and 146 are from the extreme eastern part of their districts.  In one rolled out of the wrong side of bed, he'd be in another district.  The long westward extensions are apparently to maintain fiefdoms for incumbents, and now there is no way to undo it, but extending the districts even further.   The district office for 131 is at the extreme western edge.  Under the legislature map, the office is completely surrounded by 146, except for an extremely odd wingdoodle.  So I simply added enough population on the western end of 131 and 146, and realigned the two districts.

Currently, 146 (purple) is 47% Black, 23% Hispanic, and 21% Anglo; while 131 (pink) is 46% Black, and 41% Hispanic.  After the realignment 146 (purple) is 55% Black, 28% Hispanic, and 11% Anglo; while 131 (now gold) is 44% Hispanic, 31% Black, and 17% Anglo, and an open seat.  The new 146 is comprised 61% from the old 146 and 39% from the old 131.  The new 131 is comprised 50% from the old 131, 22% from the old 146, 20% from 133, 8% from 149.

If 133 (yellow-green) and just been extended eastward into 136 (orange), it would have formed a right angle, and it was already a district squeezed between others.  So instead a realigned  the split between 133 and 149 from an north-south line, to an east-wide line.  The revised map has a much better alignment with the school districts in the area, with 149 being a good match for Alief ISD.

149 (brown) is currently 33% Hispanic, 23% Anglo, 23% Black, and 19% Asian, and will now be 37% Hispanic, 30% Black, 18% Asian, and 14% Anglo.  The new district will have 63% of its residents from 149, 37% from 133.

136 (orange) is currently 59% Anglo, 24% Hispanic; while 133 (yellow-green) is 37% Hispanic, 26% Anglo, and 23% Black.  The new 136 is 61% Anglo, 16% Hispanic, and 11% Asian.  The new district will have 43% of its population from 136, 30% from 133, and 28% from 149.  It kept the number 136, based on that district giving the greatest contribution.

Far West and Northwest - 2 districts converted to 3

District 132 (gold) has population for 1.55 districts, while 130 (brown) has enough for 1.48 districts.  Combining their surpluses, a new district can be created.  It is reassigned number 133 (blue) and takes up the middle area between the two districts.  All 3 districts have lots of develop-able prairie and will continue to grow.

132 (gold) is currently 40% Anglo, 37% Hispanic, and 14% Black.  It will become 44% Anglo, 36% Hispanic, and 12% Black.   130 (brown) is currently 60% Anglo, and 22% Hispanic, and will become 66% Anglo and 19% Hispanic.   New district 133 (blue) will be 38% Anglo, 35% Hispanic, and 16% Black.  133 is 55% from 132, and 45% from 130.

Northwest - 1 district status quo

135 (purple) grew at 24% during the decade, which outpaced the state by 4%.  But that was eaten up by the reduction of districts in Harris County from 25 to 24 (4% fewer).  So 135 still has the population for one district and is unchanged.  It is 40% Hispanic, 34% Anglo, and 12% Black.

North - 5 districts shift north

139 (orange) and 140 (yellow) have a population equivalent to 0.89 and 0.82 districts,  respectively and must expand.  126 (red) and 141 (blue) to their north have small surpluses of 1.01 and 1.09, which they may transfer to 139 and 140.  But this is not enough, and so the surplus from 150 (green) which has a population equivalent to 1.25 districts must be transferred to them.

139 (orange) is currently 44% Black and 44% Hispanic, and will become 46% Black and 42% Hispanic, as it gains from 126 along the North Freeway (I-45).  One precinct is shifted the other direction for better population balance, and slightly cleaner lines.  85% of the new district is from the current district.

126 (red) is currently 38% Anglo, 30% Hispanic, and 21% Black.  It add territory across FM-1960 from 150 (green) to keep at the target population, and will be 44% Anglo, 29% Hispanic, and 15% Black.  85% of the new district is in the current district.

140 (yellow) is 84% Hispanic.  It extends northward between the North Freeway (I-45) and the Eastex Freeway (US 59) reaching to Bush Intercontinental (IAH). The Hispanic share decreases slightly to 81%.  78% of the new district is from the current district.

141 (blue) is currently 44% Hispanic and 40% Black.  Adding territory north of FM-1960 to make up for the shift to 140, the new district will be 43% Black and 39% Hispanic.  83% of the new district is from the current district.

150 (green) is currently 51% Anglo, and has an excess population of 26% (42,000) which is transferred to 126 (red) and 141 (blue) just north of FM-1960.  This makes the district 53% Anglo, with all the new district retained from the current district.

Far East and North East - 2 districts shift north

128 (green) and 127 (yellow) have a deficit of 13% and surplus of 10% respectively. Transferring the surplus from 127 to 128 will equalize the two.  127 will also gain a small portion from 141 to make up for a small imbalance.

128 (green) is currently 50% Anglo, and 38% Hispanic, and after gaining population in the Channelview area from 127 (yellow), would be 45% Anglo and 40% Hispanic.  86% of the district is in the current district.

127 (yellow) is currently 61% Anglo, and after losing the area ti 128 (green) and gaining one precinct from 141 (blue) will be 67% Anglo.  95% of the new district is in the current district.

[jimrtex]

The total deviation range (relative to the Harris County average) is -2.2% to +2.2%, 4.4% overall.  The original version had a range of 6.5% and would have meant one district with a 5.2% deviation from the statewide average, since Harris County districts have a 1.8% deviation over the statewide average.  Switching one precinct that had been moved to clean-up the boundary reduced the deviation substantially.

The average absolute deviation (from the Harris County average) is 1.09% and the standard deviation 1.29%.  10 (of 24) districts are with 1%, and 21 are within 2%.  With an average precinct population of about 2% of the ideal size, much better would require splitting precincts.

76.7% of persons are in the same district as they are now.  The two districts that were eliminated (133 and 143) were counted as not continuing, even though they formed a substantial portion of other districts, and all the people moved into the new 133 were counted as being assigned to a new district.  If these persons were included, around 85% of the people would be considered to have remained in a district with a large share of the former district.

16 of 24 districts have more than 78% of the new district from their current districts: 100% (4 districts), 95%, 90%, 89%, 88%, 86%, 86%, 85%, 85%, 85%, 83% 82%, 78%).   Since many of these districts were underpopulated, this is the maximum they could have as they had to be augmented from other districts.

In 138 and 148 which exchanged some population, 71% of their new population is from the current district.  149, 146, and 131 which had a significant realignment have 63%, 61%, and 50% of the new district from their old district.  145 and 136, which represent mergers of current districts, have 53% and 43% from their current district.