Andalusia 2012

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

This needs a thread.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

What would you good folks like to know?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why is Rajoy's government experiencing a small bounce over their 2011 election results? Is its popularity waning? Can the IU or PSOE hope to pick up ground at their expense before the election or is it most most likely a lock for the PP?

[Sibboleth]

What would you good folks like to know?

Well, everything. You know us well enough by now.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Why is Rajoy's government experiencing a small bounce over their 2011 election results? Is its popularity waning? Can the IU or PSOE hope to pick up ground at their expense before the election or is it most most likely a lock for the PP?

1. It's hard for me to judge because I dislike him, but it seems to be a mix of (a) honeymoon, (b) discredited opposition doesn't have its leader yet and (c) the initial response to the announce of the measures has been surprisingly positive. An El Pais poll showed that stuff like cutting subsidies for political parties/unions by 20%, re-establish a tax credit for buying a house, 'revalue' pensions by 1% (revalorizar las pensiones) and spending cuts were well received; the pay freeze for public employees had lukewarm reaction and predictably tax hikes and minimum wage freeze was unpopular. The general numbers indicate that the people expected these measures, and the government seems to be perceived as being competent and credible. But I think this won't last very long. It's not like the job numbers are miraculous.

Andalucian polls seem to be similar to pre 20-N polls, but there is a very slight move towards the PSOE from recent polls. The PP is hovering around majority threshold (55 seats) with 54-57 seats against 44-47 for the PSOE. There has been a junk poll from Libertad Digital, an ultra-right news outfit which showed a narrow PP majority, a tracker poll by Cadpea showed that the gap had narrowed to around 9.5-10% instead of 15% over the summer. IU is a bit above its 2008 results (6 seats) and there is the chance that UPyD and the regionalists could make it in. If the PP wins a majority, which I think is not as likely as predicted, than the PSOE sucks balls.

For more general stuff, my blog's Guide is still up and there's a profile of Andalusia in there.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Also, FAC just announced snap elections in Asturias after the Parliament rejected his budget something.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Jesus

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

This is today.

[Tender Branson]

This is today.

Yep. Polls have closed already and the PP will likely not get an absolute majority.

PP: 52-55 seats
PSOE: 45-48 seats
IULV-CA: 8-10 seats

http://resultados-elecciones.rtve.es/andalucia

[Tender Branson]

Epic Fail poll !

...

The Exit Poll by Ipsos is:

42% PP
39% PSOE

http://www.canalsur.es/portal_rtva/web/noticia/id/197913/el_pp_roza_la_mayoria_absoluta_en_andalucia_segun_el_sondeo_de_ipsos

[ObserverIE]

Epic Fail poll !

The graph is of national voting intentions, no?

The Exit Poll by Ipsos is:

42% PP
39% PSOE

http://www.canalsur.es/portal_rtva/web/noticia/id/197913/el_pp_roza_la_mayoria_absoluta_en_andalucia_segun_el_sondeo_de_ipsos

[Tender Branson]

Epic Fail poll !

The graph is of national voting intentions, no?

The Exit Poll by Ipsos is:

42% PP
39% PSOE

http://www.canalsur.es/portal_rtva/web/noticia/id/197913/el_pp_roza_la_mayoria_absoluta_en_andalucia_segun_el_sondeo_de_ipsos

Ah, didn't see that. What were pre-election polls in Andalusia like ?

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

42-39 would be a good result for the PSOE, given that it was trailing by 8-10 if not more in the run-up to the election. Clearly something is wrong when the PSOE losing Andalusia by only 3 points is considered a moral victory... though they did lose there by 9 on 20-N.

BTW, there was also an election in Asturias today after Alvarez-Cascos' minority FAC government collapsed when the PP decided to stop backing him. Early results sez
PSOE 16
FAC 11
PP 10
IU 8 (!)

If it holds - it probably won't - it would mean +1 for PS, nc for PP, +4 for IU and -5 for FAC.

[jeron]

This is today.

Yep. Polls have closed already and the PP will likely not get an absolute majority.

PP: 52-55 seats
PSOE: 45-48 seats
IULV-CA: 8-10 seats

http://resultados-elecciones.rtve.es/andalucia

TVE News at 9 o'clock now predicts:

PP 56 seats
PSOE 47 setas
IULV 6 seats

[Vasall des Midas]

Although results in so far actually show a PSOE minority... and eleven seats for the Commies.

Probably due to whatever kind of places tend to come in first.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Andalucia, 44.3% reporting
PSOE 41.3% > 51
PP 38.2% > 48
IULV-CA 11.8% > 10

Asturias, 65.7% reporting
PSOE 32.7% > 16
FAC 24% > 12
PP 20.7% > 10
IU 14.7% > 6
UPyD 3.8% > 1

Tough to see a PP majority in Andalusia on these numbers.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Andalusia, 65% reporting
PSOE 49
PP 48
IULV 12

Asturias, 81% reporting
PSOE 16
FAC 13
PP 10
IU 6
UPyD 1

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Andalusia, 73% reporting
PP 50
PSOE 47
IULV 12

[Vasall des Midas]

PSOE still ahead on votes, though.

[Vasall des Midas]

And with 85% of the vote counted, PP has overtaken PSOE in the raw vote.

[Vasall des Midas]

96% counted, and 50-47-12 looks set in stone. I could see PP *maybe* taking one further seat off PSOE.

[Insula Dei]

That's actually not too bad.

[Senator MaxQue]

I don't see any problem with Andalusia. Left only lost 3 seats and has a majority of seats in 7 of the 8 provinces.

[JulioMadrid]

Sorry, people, I should have said something about this.

But, as usual, I was receiving calls and calling people, too. I love election nights here, and this was the most intense ever in my life. PSOE had a better than expected election night, a damn good one. We (PSOE+IU)were not expected to win in Andalucia, and it wasn't even close. The Left is recovering!!!!

I loved Javier Arenas' face. It's the 4th time he loses, he may commit suicide haha...

Oh, and we lost by 1 point, while polls predicted a 10 point margin. So, EPIC FAIL for pollsters.

_____________


About Asturias, what can I Say? PSOE wins the popular vote, FAC beats PP, and the right has 23 'diputados' for 21 of the left (UPyD has one).

Buuuuuuuuuuut there's one thing that, surprisingly, TV hasn't talked about. The emigrant vote comes on Wednesday, and they almost always vote PSOE. So, I think it's possible that PSOE steals 1 congressperson from Cascos in 'Occidente'. Let's wait for Wednesday!

_____________

Conclusion: a good night for PSOE. We were supposed to lose Andalucia and win Asturias as we did. A better night for IU (in Asturias they only have 1 more, but in Andalucia they doubled their representation).

[Senator MaxQue]

Apparently, PSOE won one seat from FAC with postal votes.