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Author Topic: Andalusia 2012  (Read 2734 times)
Hashemite
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« Reply #25 on: March 28, 2012, 02:36:24 pm »

Apparently, PSOE won one seat from FAC with postal votes.

Which gives a 22-22 tie between the two blocs, with Rosa Diez's fanclub holding the decisive vote. It is always hard to know whuch way UPyD will go, but the PSOE should have an added edge by virtue of being the largest party by a mile. Plus Asturias doesn't have any issues of regionalism and so forth to catter to.
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« Reply #26 on: March 28, 2012, 05:59:26 pm »
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Apparently, PSOE won one seat from FAC with postal votes.

Which gives a 22-22 tie between the two blocs, with Rosa Diez's fanclub holding the decisive vote. It is always hard to know whuch way UPyD will go, but the PSOE should have an added edge by virtue of being the largest party by a mile. Plus Asturias doesn't have any issues of regionalism and so forth to catter to.

Plus, it's not a given that PP and FAC will manage to vote for the same candidate (Cascos) in the Parliament of Asturias. Remember, Cascos always wants all the power for himself.

UPyD has a "dilemma" now:

- The party should let PSOE-IU take the government of Asturias. Why? Because their message has always been that the winner should be the head of government. That's why we have PP in cities like Getafe, Alcorcón or Alcalá de Henares.

- FAC voted with UPyD in order to let it form a group in Congress. UPyD had to represent >5% of the votes if they wanted to be a separated group in Congress... And Rosa got 4.92%, but FAC voted with them, so they got more than 5% together.
What does this mean? That UPyD could vote for Cascos in appreciation of what FAC did.

But, Javi will more than likely be the next President of Asturias!! A person that I've met personally (and I found him really sincere and intelligent).
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Hashemite
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« Reply #27 on: March 28, 2012, 06:10:02 pm »

Well, yeah, Cascos is a retard and a jerk, but I think the PP has come around to the idea of backing him in a right-wing coalition.
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« Reply #28 on: March 29, 2012, 08:45:20 am »
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Well, yeah, Cascos is a retard and a jerk, but I think the PP has come around to the idea of backing him in a right-wing coalition.

Now, it seems that it could be the other way: FAC supporting "Cherines" (PP's candidate). However, Javi Fernández (PSOE) will be the next President of Asturias, so it doesn't mind if FAC backs Cherines or Cherines backs FAC. UPyD won't vote with them.
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« Reply #29 on: March 30, 2012, 05:56:24 pm »
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(Slightly belated) Map time!

As always, open in new tab for huge version.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #30 on: March 30, 2012, 08:15:11 pm »
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That's a really pretty map; thanks for posting. Could someone who knows more about Spain than me explain things?
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Hashemite
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« Reply #31 on: March 30, 2012, 08:22:19 pm »

What kind of things? Seems generally straightforward.
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« Reply #32 on: March 30, 2012, 08:23:53 pm »
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What kind of things? Seems generally straightforward.

You know, generally. Green is Commie, right?
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« Reply #33 on: March 30, 2012, 08:26:05 pm »
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That's a really pretty map; thanks for posting. Could someone who knows more about Spain than me explain things?

Big cities and coast ---> PP

Almeria = the new Murcia (heavily conservative)

Rural towns/villages saved Griñán.

Oh, and Marinaleda is easy to find in that map.

Thanks, Wink
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« Reply #34 on: March 30, 2012, 09:19:14 pm »
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That town of Maridalena seems really strange.
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« Reply #35 on: March 31, 2012, 03:42:13 am »
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What are the other Commie-voting towns like? Also small rural places with Anarchist traditions?
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Hashemite
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« Reply #36 on: March 31, 2012, 09:03:28 am »

What kind of things? Seems generally straightforward.

You know, generally. Green is Commie, right?

In general:
Large cities (provincial capitals) tend to be more right-wing than rural areas, largely because landowners and senoritos tended to live/flee to the cities to live their cultured affluent lifestyle or to prevent getting killed by their serfs. Other non-capital large cities, including Jerez de la Frontera (which is in wine country), fairly industrial Algeciras, La Linea, El Ejido and Antequera voted PP. For obvious reasons, coastal communities such as Marbella in Granada and Malaga province are solidly right-wing.

Rural areas are traditionally left-wing, with the exception of coastal Almeria (refer to an oldish thread in which I talked about the type of agriculture in Almeria). Inland Huelva has a big mining sector (Rio Tinto), while Sevilla's PSOE machine likely boosts PSOE strength a bit. Mountainous areas of Granada and Almeria also tend to be left-leaning.
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« Reply #37 on: March 31, 2012, 10:10:25 am »
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What are the other Commie-voting towns like? Also small rural places with Anarchist traditions?

Probably towns with a CUT-BAI or PCE mayor. Sanchez Gordillo, for example, is the mayor of Marinaleda since 1981 IIRC. And the village has became a communist stronghold (I actually like the way Sanchez Gordillo governs in Marinaleda, but I don't like him because he hates PSOE)
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Hashemite
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« Reply #38 on: March 31, 2012, 10:16:03 am »

Marinaleda is also an anarcho-syndicalist/communalist cooperative village; hence why they vote IU.
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« Reply #39 on: March 31, 2012, 07:49:54 pm »
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Marinaleda is also an anarcho-syndicalist/communalist cooperative village; hence why they vote IU.

Yes. Actually, PSOE is the conservative party there, winning always between 15 and 30% of the vote against Gordillo (little fat in English haha)
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #40 on: April 03, 2012, 02:22:38 pm »
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Hash, you have to change something in your blog. PSOE has 17 seats in the Asturian Parliament now, and FAC 12. So, it's a tie between the left (17 PSOE + 5 IU) and the right (12 FAC + 10 PP) with UPyD being decisive.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Tender Branson
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« Reply #41 on: April 15, 2012, 05:30:28 am »
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Honeymoon seems to be over for the Spanish PP, says a new poll:

PM Rajoy has only a 32-58 approval rating anymore and his PP crashed by 8% in 1 month.

Too bad the PSOE is doing even worse ...

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rob in cal
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« Reply #42 on: April 15, 2012, 01:12:33 pm »
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So, whats the latest on the Asturian drama, will the UPyd member go with the left-wing or right-wing bloc, or is it still uncertain?
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #43 on: April 16, 2012, 12:51:25 pm »
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Still uncertain. I hope we don't need a 3rd election in a row...
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #44 on: April 16, 2012, 02:21:19 pm »
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F'ing liberals.
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