Florida county map prediction
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Author Topic: Florida county map prediction  (Read 3415 times)
Bacon King
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E: -7.63, S: -9.49

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« Reply #25 on: February 01, 2012, 04:41:01 AM »


7 counties I called for Romney that went for Gingrich
6 counties I called for Gingrich that went for Romney
54 counties called for the correct candidate

Will do percentages later, maybe. The biggest mistake seemed to be trusting that the PPP crosstabs which showed that Cubans supported Gingrich would translate into him winning Miami-Dade. Ended up being Romney's best county.

You think Gainesville will go for Newt?

Granted I suspect all the non-redneck people there are Democrats. The Republicans are probably like that Koran-burning idiot pastor.

Called it Smiley I knew that UF would make it Paul's best county, and there's certainly enough extreme evangelicals there give Santorum a fair amount of the vote as well. One would think that based on median income, the county would go for Romney, but enough of the rich are liberals to give Newt the edge.
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Adam Griffin
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E: -7.35, S: -6.26

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« Reply #26 on: February 01, 2012, 04:54:16 AM »

Looking through the predictions, there seemed to be a buck: how did Romney end up doing so well in Dade County? He not only did well, he actually did better in Dade County than in any other county. It actually makes sense to me, but was it leaning heavily for Gingrich a few days ago?
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Bacon King
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Posts: 18,822
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Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

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« Reply #27 on: February 01, 2012, 05:02:02 AM »

Looking through the predictions, there seemed to be a buck: how did Romney end up doing so well in Dade County? He not only did well, he actually did better in Dade County than in any other county. It actually makes sense to me, but was it leaning heavily for Gingrich a few days ago?

Cubans make up a majority of Dade's GOP electorate. Several polls were saying that Gingrich was winning among Cubans, but it seems like they voted en masse for Romney.

PS: nice avatar! Tongue
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #28 on: February 01, 2012, 05:50:54 AM »

looks like BRTD rocked it.  can't wait for his Obama-Romney 50-state project come the autumn.
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