Florida county map prediction

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So who else wants to try one?

I'll have one coming up.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

I will do one... is this one of those where you put it in paint and work it out that way?

[RI]

I will do one... is this one of those where you put it in paint and work it out that way?

Yes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Newt in red, because the blue and green shades are too close:

[cinyc]

This is the 2008 Atlas Republican primary map.  Romney was green, McCain blue and Huckabee orange:



The light blue-green counties were 30-40% Romney.

Romney won the Jacksonville area, suburban/exurban territory north of Orlando and Tampa and Collier County (Naples).  I suspect that Romney's best county again will be Collier, but results in Jacksonville may be different.  It will be interesting to see if Huckabee's support maps to Santorum.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney won't win that one Panhandle county, and probably will do best in Collier and the coastal resort areas of Cubans and olds. That, combined with strong numbers in Jacksonville, Tampa, and Orlando, will help him.

[Bacon King]

I wouldn't be too surprised to see Santorum win a couple of Panhandle counties, and I also imagine Romney will win a few random counties up there due to a Santorum/Gingrich vote split. Romney definitely carries Leon County, too- BRTD has that right, though I'd put the margin as >40% unless Ron Paul has a really good showing from FSU (I wouldn't be surprised).

Romney certainly carries the Jacksonville area again, and he'll probably do pretty well throughout much of the I-4 corridor. Gingrich certainly wins Miami, though, if PPP's racial crosstabs are accurate.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I wouldn't be too surprised to see Santorum win a couple of Panhandle counties, and I also imagine Romney will win a few random counties up there due to a Santorum/Gingrich vote split. Romney definitely carries Leon County, too- BRTD has that right, though I'd put the margin as >40% unless Ron Paul has a really good showing from FSU (I wouldn't be surprised).

Romney certainly carries the Jacksonville area again, and he'll probably do pretty well throughout much of the I-4 corridor. Gingrich certainly wins Miami, though, if PPP's racial crosstabs are accurate.

I think Mason-Dixon had different results for the Cubans, but I can't remember for sure, so many polls, so short a time.

[RI]

I wouldn't be too surprised to see Santorum win a couple of Panhandle counties, and I also imagine Romney will win a few random counties up there due to a Santorum/Gingrich vote split. Romney definitely carries Leon County, too- BRTD has that right, though I'd put the margin as >40% unless Ron Paul has a really good showing from FSU (I wouldn't be surprised).

Romney certainly carries the Jacksonville area again, and he'll probably do pretty well throughout much of the I-4 corridor. Gingrich certainly wins Miami, though, if PPP's racial crosstabs are accurate.

I think Mason-Dixon had different results for the Cubans, but I can't remember for sure, so many polls, so short a time.

PPP has consistently had Gingrich winning Cubans with 40%+ of the vote.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Mason Dixon said that Romney crushes Gingrich amongst "Hispanics" (didn't separate out Cuban and non-Cuban). SurveyUSA has Romney up by 20 or so in the SE Florida.


I think we found out why the PPP and Insider Advantage polls have lower numbers. They are getting different numbers amongst Hispanics. They have Gingrich winning them while the Romney by 12 and over polls have Romney winning them.

[CatoMinor]

Newt in red, because the blue and green shades are too close:

I think romney will do a little better in the pan handle than that, but I think it will look like this^^^

[Hash]

Yeah, Romney could win around Pensacola and Panama City. If Gingrich does really poorly, he'll only win a few redneck Alabaman counties like Holmes.

[exopolitician]

Gingrich will do well in Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties. Romney will do better out east towards Panama City.

[Torie]

So who else wants to try one?

I'll have one coming up.

Your map assumes just what Mittens' margin over Newt in Florida?  10%?

[ndcohn]

That's a great map. Conspicuously similar to mine, although I think Romney might do worse in central Florida and better in the western Panhandle:

http://electionate.wordpress.com/2012/01/30/florida-primary-preview/

Since Romney looks to win by a significant margin, you can give all of those toss-ups to him, and I imagine he might even win a few additional counties.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So who else wants to try one?

I'll have one coming up.

Your map assumes just what Mittens' margin over Newt in Florida?  10%?

Romney 43%
Gingrich 32%
Santorum 14%
Paul 11%

[Torie]

An 11% point margin probably translates into more Mittens counties than you have I suspect BRTD. We shall see, since the margin if I had to guess will be in that range.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I wouldn't expect such a balance between counties in Mittens wins by 10-15%. Gingrich and maybe Santorum will win counties in the northern party of the state. I also expect Mittens will do better in the Jacksonville area since that was his stronghold last time around.

[Lief 🗽]

There aren't that many Republican voters in the Panhandle. Gingrich can win a majority in that part of the state and still lose by 10 points.

[homelycooking]

That's an awful map. Compare the Pensacola circle with the Fort Myers circle - it's actually quite a bit larger!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah and Jacksonville and West Palm Beach are well over twice the size of it despite being only 2 points bigger...

[Lief 🗽]

A rare graphical miss from Nate Silver (pbuh). But the percentages are what really matter.

[Bacon King]

Here's my best guess:

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I would think Indian River County would go for Gingrich. Brevard, St Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade would all go for Romney.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You think Gainesville will go for Newt?

Granted I suspect all the non-redneck people there are Democrats. The Republicans are probably like that Koran-burning idiot pastor.