Election of 2012: Looking Forward

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31/01/2012 Florida Republican Primary



Mitt Romney 44.3%
Newt Gingrich 28.9%
Ron Paul 16.7%
Rick Santorum 10.6%

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"Thank you Florida! You've been terrific! But I would also like to extend my thanks to Speaker Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Congressman Ron Paul for keeping this race interesting. All of them could do a better job than this President, whose only job it seems is to destroy jobs like here in Central Florida..."
-Mitt Romney

"If the results of this primary contest mean anything, it's that the people of Florida buy conservatism. The salesmen they purchased it from may have been dubious in his methods but the basic idea excites Americans and will unite us in defeating Barack Obama come the fall campaign."
-Newt Gingrich

"You know, we mightn't a won one of these things yet but we've got something they all don't have. And that's a consistent message and as is evident from you all the enthusiasm to express this. That's what's got us this far. Every poll shows them up and down then down and up but we've got the momentum. We will win in Nevada and Liberty will prevale!"
-Ron Paul

"Well, I just congratulated Governor Romney and his family on his victory but first I'd like to thank my wife Karen, our children and all of you for running such an excellent campaign. But you know, I was born for a battle and next up's the battle-born state. Sounds like the perfect chance to reclaim our momentum and I accept the challenge, Nevada!"
-Rick Santorum

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Ron Paul 30.2%
Mitt Romney 29.7%
Newt Gingrich 23.5%
Rick Santorum 17.2%

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"WE DID IT! America has heard our voice tonight! We are taking this country back one state at a time!"
-Ron Paul

"I'd like to congratulate Congressman Paul on his victory tonight. I understand this is his first win and it must mean a lot to his supporters. He's ran a great campaign I understand in the caucus states but I gotta tell ye Colorado's next and I'm feeling pretty good about our chancees there. Thank you and God Bless America!"
-Mitt Romney

"Thank you Nevada! I couldn't have done it without my wife Karen, our daughter Bella, who as you know, was recently hospitalized but is now fighting fit for this thrid place victory! I disagree with Congressman on many issues but congratulate him tonight on what will probably be his last victory."
-Rick Santorum

"What Dr Paul's victory has meant tonight is a black eye to the establishment of both parties. In that respect I stand with him. We may differ on foreign policy but we both stand resolute in our determination to oust President Obama's socialist regime."
-Newt Gingrich

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Next up, the Maine Caucus way out in Romney country, but one whch has been polling well for libertarian Ron Paul



Ron Paul 32.9% ("Two in a row ain't bad. Now they can't ignore us!")

Mitt Romney 32.7% ("Well someone's off to the races. I just called to congratulate Ron on his second victory and he could barely keep the excitement out of his voice, lemme tell ya.")

Newt Gingrich 21.8% ("I'm sure tonight's victory has enthused the libertarian right of which I am very supportive though not always in agreement with. Some might say Congressman Paul's chances of getting to the convention are silm, but tonight he has certainly disproved some of thsoe critics.")

Rick Santorum 11.9% ("I just got off the phone with the congressman to compliment him on tonight's results. I recalled how when they saifd I didn't stand a chance last year but then we took Iowa and won eight delegates and those same people had to turn around and say well Gee, well we called that wrong. Let me tell ya, it's a very satisfying feeling.")

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07/02/12



Ron Paul puts new scores on the board, including the (nobinding) primary in Minnesota.

22/02/12

Santorum's daughter Bella was hospitalized again, which gave the candidate another surge in the polls when it broke the headlines. His supporters were unsure if he would hang in with his domestic troubles when Colorado and Minnesota, two states polling well for him, were just around the corner.

"Good evening, I'm Wolf Blitzer or Blitz Wolfman if your Herman Cain (no laughs) and welcome to the CNN Mesa, Arizona GOP debate. Onstage are the three of the four remaining candidates: Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. Rick Santorum has suspended his campaign citing family concerns but I'm sure tonight's debate will still be an interesting one."

It is. Previously warm and Paul-friendly former frontrunners Mitt and Newt savage Ron for his attack ads, 'Democrat' foreign policy leaving the old amn flustered and babbling about bubbles.
Next are the Arizona and Michigan rpiamries, in which Romney is expected to win big but underperforms spectacualrly.

[ChairmanSanchez]

Great timeline! This is my dream scenario as a Paul supporter

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BREAKING ELECTORAL NEWSFLASH

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Rick Santorum has dropped out of the race!

"Thank you all for having the courage to fight for America! It's not that I don't (laughs), but my family needs me more than you brave souls and I know you'll keep fighting for our American values in the ongoing primaries and caucuses. MItt and Newt and even Dr Paul are both, are all good men, good Americans who believe in restoring our values but right now I haven't made my mind up as to who I'm going to root for... God bless them, God bless you and God bless America!"

On his way into Super Tuesday, Santorum's old hero Newt picks up another not-as-sought endorsement from a certain 2008 VP candidate -Sarah 'Pitbull' Palin. This is enough to win over the tea party and other voters of Washington State.

 

Newt Gingrich
Ron Paul
Mitt Romney

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After Mitt Romney's Super Tuesday trouncing, a wave of endorsements hit Gingrich, including Rick Santorum:

"America needs strong, consistent, conservative leadership and I believe that Newt Gingrich is the man for the job!"

The Romney camp unleashes a slew of new attack ads against Paul and Gingrich, calling them unelectable crazies intent on destroying America and heads off to Missouri where he stands a chance of reclaiming some fire.
 Meanwhile, Newt campaigns throughout the deep south with Haley barbour, Saxby Chambliss and the Palins.

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Ron Paul takes Wyoming with 37.6% of the vote to Romney's 31.7% and Gingrich's 30.6%. At this point, with the looming open primaries and caucuses in places such as Kansas and Alabama, the RNC approaches both the Gingrich and Romney camps with offers of a STOP PAUL coalition merger but there is no deal.

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Gingrich takes Kansas and Romney takes US Virgin Islands, Guam.

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Gingrich sweeps the South, including wins in Hawaii and American Samoa. It seems like the Paulites has been extinguished, for now...

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Another decisive Gingrich win in Missouri, with Paul in second and Romney last but not least.

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24/03/12



A win for each candidate, as Romney campaigns successfully in Puerto Rico with Governor Luis Fortuna as does Paul in Illinois and Gingrich in Louisiana.

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03/04/12

As Gingrich camapigns happily in Wisconsin as the frontrunner with Ron Johnson and Scott Walker, strange things are happening in Texas. Hundreds of thousands of young and old Texans, democrat and Republican are amassing to vote for Ron Paul in a proportional open primary.



Romney is feeling the heat now and pours his war chest into the upcoming Pennsylvania primary and campaigns with Governor Tom Corbett. Gingrich does the same with Senator Pat Toomey at some events and Santorum at others.

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Romney defeats the two Pennsylvania-born politicians in his most decisive victory yet, with Ron Paul coming in last.

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Three important wins for Gingrich, Romney in second in all three.

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Romney continues to do well in closed primaries like Oregon, where his ad "Who Can Win?" plays well upon the fears moderate (and some conservative) GOPers have of Gingrich's electoral ability.

Gingrich wins the high contest straw poll in Nebraska.

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Ron Paul comes in a close second to Newt and hugs his son Rand in his concession speech in a teary moment unusual for Dr No. A big 47.8% in Arkansas victory is what the other Doc ordered though.

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Next up, Ron Paul's biggest victory speech yet: the California primary

[Jerseyrules]

Great timeline! This is my dream scenario as a Paul supporter

[pillage the village, trash the scene]

Great timeline! This is my dream scenario as a Paul supporter

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FINAL DELEGATE COUNT

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Mitt Romney 806
Newt Gingrich 665 (+127 convention)(+Santorum 29)
Ron Paul 524 (+40 convention)

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Commentators point to the Paul campaigns multi-million dollar and grassroots effort in the state to register Democrats, Independents and 3rd party members.

"Thankyou California! We have forced the other candidates and the party as a whole to take our mission of liberty seriously. We will go to the convention and rattle some cages! But this cause cannot be stopped, we will continue to fight for the constitution and our rights as Americans!"
-Ron Paul

Unsure whether the Doc was implying a third-party run, Neocons panic at the thought while the Romney and Gingrich camps try to come up with a coalition to put across the table to Paul. It doesn't work as Paul demands a campaign platform of non-interventionism and big cuts. 

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Gingrich tries to woo convention and unbound delegates as a way of climbing to the top of a presumed Gingrich-Romney ticket. He wins few over and eventually decides to stand by his earlier pledge of avoiding intra-party issues, agreeing to be Romney's running mate.

Ron Paul announces his independent run for the Presidency from the steps of the Lincoln Monument.