Colorado Caucus Predictions

[5280]

Does anybody have polls for Colorado between the 4 candidates?  I haven't found anything online as of today. 

Also, post a map of CO of which counties the candidates will win.

[RI]

Does anybody have polls for Colorado between the 4 candidates?  I haven't found anything online as of today.

There haven't been any in forever.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Before anyone mentions a commonly made stupid assumption, Colorado is only about 2% Mormon.

[Eraserhead]

I predict Romney will win. Beyond that, who knows?

[CatoMinor]

I predict a decent Romney win. Nothing big like Florida or NH though. Newt will come in a close-ish second with Paul in decent double digits. Santorum 4th.  

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Grass roots intense organization matters most in Colorado, unlike the top down, advertising heavy FL organization. I say Paul has to get atleast second in Colorado based on that.

[5280]

This answers the question, it has Gingrich +19 as of 12/6

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CONC_1206.pdf

[Joe Republic]

Romney won 60% last time when he wasn't even the frontrunner.  It was his second best state, in fact.

I don't see why this wouldn't be pretty much a repeat.

[5280]

Romney won 60% last time when he wasn't even the frontrunner.  It was his second best state, in fact.

I don't see why this wouldn't be pretty much a repeat.

I don't trust the PPP poll at all, he'll get over 50% this time around.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, CO is one of the caucus states Paul is least likely to beat Romney in.

[RI]

The reasons Romney did so well in the caucus states last time around are no longer really in existence this cycle, partially because 2012 Romney is very little like 2008 Romney. I suspect that Romney's vote in the caucus states (save Nevada perhaps) will crash significantly. Whether that's enough to beat him, I don't know. I'm starting to think Paul can win Maine, at the very least, and that Minnesota will go to either Paul or Santorum. Colorado...I don't know.

[Eraserhead]

Romney won 60% last time when he wasn't even the frontrunner.  It was his second best state, in fact.

I don't see why this wouldn't be pretty much a repeat.

Depends if his win last time was based more on his personal organization in the state or because he was the choice of conservative activists as the Anti-McCain at that time. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In 2008 it was a Super Tuesday state. Go look at the Super Tuesday map. The state was completely unimportant to either McCain or Huckabee. McCain's strategy revolved around California and the Northeast states, Huckabee's was around the south. Romney was pretty much the only one competing in the caucuses that time. Not sure if that's the same this time. Granted it may also be that Paul, Santorum and Newt don't have the organization to beat him too.

[Mr. Morden]

Is there any particular reason why Paul did so poorly here in 2008, relative to other caucus states?

[argentarius]

If Paul keeps it within 10% in Nevada, he should do very well in Colorado, because the mormon % drops significantly.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

RAWN PAWL

[Stranger in a strange land]

Colorado is one of those states where you have liberal Democrats and very conservative Republicans with very little in between. It doesn't strike me as the type of place where Romney would do well this time around, though he could still win in a four-way split. Paul or possibly even Santorum could pull out an upset depending on who gets the support of the Evangelical establishment in Colorado Springs.

[5280]

Colorado is one of those states where you have liberal Democrats and very conservative Republicans with very little in between. It doesn't strike me as the type of place where Romney would do well this time around, though he could still win in a four-way split. Paul or possibly even Santorum could pull out an upset depending on who gets the support of the Evangelical establishment in Colorado Springs.

I don't think people of Colorado have time to settle for an extreme candidate right now that matches their ideology when there's more important things to be concerned about.

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/02/01/after_florida_win_romney_aims_for_february_trifecta_112984-2.html

From the above article, it sounds like Nevada is the only caucus state Romney is focusing on. It looks like he's not really playing in Colorado, Minnesota or Maine. Hopefully Paul can sweep all three.

[Stan]

In 2008 Colorado has voted for ROmney, and I think that this year He will rewin. Maybe Ron Paul can do a good results, in My opinion.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Santorum has purchased a major ad buy in Colorado.

[Torie]

Colorado is a very mixed bag state. It has Evangelicals in Colorado Springs, Romney types in the Denver burbs, who knows what in Ft. Collins, pretty hard right folks in Grand Junction (part of the fossil fuel belt now), probably with a fair number of Paul fans, kids in Boulder and the ski resorts (who probably won't be showing up for the caucuses), and rather down market Pueblo, plus some cattle areas. The local party is rife with internecine warfare. I would not myself be so foolish as to predict anything absent some good poll.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I dunno. Predicting Colorado is really tricky.

I'd guess it'll be Romney, with Paul some distance behind, and then Santorum and Gingrich farther behind Paul compared to Paul behind Romney.

I'll make a stab at the numbers on the night before the results. I think Nevada, Maine, etc are going to effect it, though.

[5280]

Colorado is a very mixed bag state. It has Evangelicals in Colorado Springs, Romney types in the Denver burbs, who knows what in Ft. Collins, pretty hard right folks in Grand Junction (part of the fossil fuel belt now), probably with a fair number of Paul fans, kids in Boulder and the ski resorts (who probably won't be showing up for the caucuses), and rather down market Pueblo, plus some cattle areas. The local party is rife with internecine warfare. I would not myself be so foolish as to predict anything absent some good poll.

Colorado politics is extreme, like the weather patterns here, LOL.  It's a really big turnoff having to deal with the Liberals in Boulder and the nutjobs in some parts of the Springs.  Time to unite!

[Stranger in a strange land]

In 2008 it was a Super Tuesday state. Go look at the Super Tuesday map. The state was completely unimportant to either McCain or Huckabee. McCain's strategy revolved around California and the Northeast states, Huckabee's was around the south. Romney was pretty much the only one competing in the caucuses that time. Not sure if that's the same this time. Granted it may also be that Paul, Santorum and Newt don't have the organization to beat him too.

Also, McCain and Huckabee were both nearly out of money and had little organization. McCain was actually lucky that Romney dropped out when he did, otherwise Romney's money might have allowed him to halt McCain's advantage in momentum. This time around, Paul actually has a very good ground game and is making much better use of his fundraising, though he still has a limited support base. Gingrich and Santorum also still have support among Social Conservatives, and Romney does poorly in most states until he money-bombs them. There's no way to tell how any of the caucus states will turn out.