Will Romney overperform or underperform his polling #s in the caucus states?
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  Will Romney overperform or underperform his polling #s in the caucus states?		 « previous next »
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Question: Will Romney overperform or underperform his polling #s in the caucus states?
#1
overperform		  
#2
underperform		  
#3
his polling #s will be dead-on predictions of his performance		  
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Author Topic: Will Romney overperform or underperform his polling #s in the caucus states?  (Read 727 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: February 01, 2012, 04:30:53 AM »
?

He vastly overperformed his polling #s in caucus states in 2008, but that's when he was running as the conservative alternative to John McCain, so he had an advantage in low turnout contests that he won't have this time.
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argentarius
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« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2012, 04:41:51 AM »
He's got the organisation, he'll overperform. The really interesting thing will be Paul quadrupling some poll performances.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2012, 04:02:00 PM »
Underperform, because this time he's the one that people are disaffected by.  He's not the anti-McCain, people are the anti-him.

Paul will overperform almost everywhere.  Santorum and Gingrich will probably split; I think they'll see similar support in most of their states, but their PV will vary more widely.  Romney will be under most of his PV numbers, except places where Mormons hold influence (NV, CO).
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2012, 04:06:44 PM »
Its hard to say.  On the one hand he does have the orginization.  On the other hand, he is probably the candidate who's supporters are least enthusiastic about. 

Only time will tell.
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shua
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« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2012, 11:10:44 PM »
Which polls is this referring to? I'm not aware of any.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2012, 11:30:23 PM »
^^^^

Yeah, there is hardly any caucus polling to speak of this cycle in the first place.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2012, 02:19:27 AM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on February 01, 2012, 11:30:23 PM
^^^^

Yeah, there is hardly any caucus polling to speak of this cycle in the first place.

There will certainly be polls by Saturday.  PPP at least is polling Nevada this week, and I'm sure there will be others.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2012, 02:30:28 AM »
Romney is leading by 15-20 in Nevada on night one with Gingrich second and Paul and Santorum tied for third. I have a feeling that isn't at all what the final numbers will look like.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2012, 02:31:12 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on February 02, 2012, 02:19:27 AM
Quote from: Eraserhead on February 01, 2012, 11:30:23 PM
^^^^

Yeah, there is hardly any caucus polling to speak of this cycle in the first place.

There will certainly be polls by Saturday.  PPP at least is polling Nevada this week, and I'm sure there will be others.

After first night of NV polling, PPP has:

* Romney up by about 20 over Gingrich
* Paul 3rd with no chance for 2nd place
* Santorum 4th
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: February 02, 2012, 02:42:46 AM »
But Romney won NV by 37% in 2008!

Guys, we are witnessing the collapse of the Romney campaign.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: February 08, 2012, 03:48:28 AM »
So......yeah.  About that amazing Romney organization.....
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