North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
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  North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
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Author Topic: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races  (Read 35799 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #125 on: September 22, 2012, 04:30:49 PM »

There will be an 8th district debate on Monday.
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Miles
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« Reply #126 on: September 27, 2012, 09:48:44 AM »

Hmmmm.

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #127 on: September 27, 2012, 09:52:19 AM »

How did the debate go?


Also, I am getting sick of these radio ads for Tim D'Annunzio and George Holding. I wanna listen to music to get away from politics, not hear more of it. Angry
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Miles
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« Reply #128 on: September 27, 2012, 10:01:05 AM »

I actually haven't watched it yet Sad

But from what I gather, it was pretty much what you would expect: Hudson went on the offensive while Kissell continued to cast himself as a centrist. Overall, it sounds like Hudson gave the better performance.

There is another debate scheduled in Lumberton during the first week of October, IIRC.
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Miles
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« Reply #129 on: October 26, 2012, 12:12:17 PM »

Its been a while.

Anyway, today Sabato moved NC-07 from Tossup to Lean D.
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Miles
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« Reply #130 on: October 27, 2012, 04:45:02 PM »

I updated the first post; I now only have the names of the official nominees listed. Let me know if you find errors!
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Miles
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« Reply #131 on: October 30, 2012, 02:58:48 AM »

Lately, McIntyre has been emphasizing his support from mayors in CD7. Roughly 75% are endorsing him.
 
He was also more recently out with endorsements from a handful of Johnston County mayors. This is important because they can help him make inroads there in the future.
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Miles
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« Reply #132 on: October 30, 2012, 03:08:34 AM »

As for CD8, the Charlotte Observer was had an article about how Kissell has beaten the odds before.

This is the only where I've reached into my own pocket (because, 'ya know, we college students can spend millions of our own money to influence these races).
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Miles
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« Reply #133 on: October 31, 2012, 01:13:34 PM »

Not much in the way of polling lately in CD7 or 8. Still, editorials like this and this are good for Kissell.
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Miles
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« Reply #134 on: November 03, 2012, 04:18:24 PM »

I'm trying to make Presidential predictions for NC by CD. This, of course, led me to making some swing/trend maps:






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Miles
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« Reply #135 on: November 05, 2012, 09:44:08 PM »

My Presidential projections by CD:

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Gass3268
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« Reply #136 on: November 05, 2012, 10:06:55 PM »

Good luck in all of the North Carolina races tomorrow Miles!
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Miles
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« Reply #137 on: November 05, 2012, 10:22:05 PM »

Thanks!
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Miles
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« Reply #138 on: November 07, 2012, 05:22:30 AM »

Well, I'm still proud of Congressman Kissell.

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Miles
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« Reply #139 on: November 07, 2012, 03:49:06 PM »

McIntyre is claiming victory with a 507-vote lead. A recount in CD7 seems imminent.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #140 on: November 08, 2012, 01:44:08 PM »

Miles:

I am shocked that the Republican only won the 9th district by 6% (about 23,000 votes). Looking at this result and the fact that they almost rejected the ban on same-sex marriage in the 9th, is it possible given curernt trends that this seat could become competative? 
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Frodo
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« Reply #141 on: November 10, 2012, 01:08:15 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2012, 01:09:53 PM by Frodo »

Assuming Rep. Mike McIntyre survives the recount process, he looks to be the lone white Democratic survivor in a state that has gone Republican..  

The question is, will he want to run for another term in 2014 against another strong Republican challenger?  Or will he rather retire, letting his seat go GOP as well? 
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Miles
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« Reply #142 on: November 10, 2012, 01:11:46 PM »

Miles:

I am shocked that the Republican only won the 9th district by 6% (about 23,000 votes). Looking at this result and the fact that they almost rejected the ban on same-sex marriage in the 9th, is it possible given curernt trends that this seat could become competative? 

One of the things in NC that I was surprised about was that Roberts did better than Kissell! I guess that speaks to the trends of their districts.

I think a few things accounted for that. First, Roberts has been on the County Commission for 8 years, so she was much better known that the previous Dems that have run in CD9. Also, Pittenger doesn't have the personal popularity that Myrick had throughout the district (she actually endorsed his opponent in the runoff). 

Could we conceivably pick this seat up sometime during the decade? Yes. What worries me is Pittenger's personal wealth; he plunked down at least $2 million of his own just to get the nomination. If we were to win this district, the Democrat would need to overcome a financial disadvantage.
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Miles
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« Reply #143 on: November 10, 2012, 01:28:10 PM »

Assuming Rep. Mike McIntyre survives the recount process, he looks to be the lone white Democratic survivor in a state that has gone Republican..  

The question is, will he want to run for another term in 2014 against another strong Republican challenger?  Or will he rather retire, letting his seat go GOP as well? 

I have a guy feeling that McIntyre won't retire next cycle. Rouzer could run again, but he might bd viewed as damaged goods. Ditto with Pantano; if he ran in 2014, that would be his third run for Congress.

There are a few others from the Assembly who could run in 2014:

- Sen. Thom Goolsby (New Hanover)
- Sen. Bill Rabon (Brunswick, Pender, Bladen)
- Rep. Rick Catlin (New Hanover)

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CountryRoads
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« Reply #144 on: November 10, 2012, 02:22:54 PM »

I, for one, am glad that McIntrye might win. I liked Pantano way more the Rouzer. Don't care what anyone says, Pantano is a hero.
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nclib
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« Reply #145 on: November 10, 2012, 02:44:19 PM »

Assuming Rep. Mike McIntyre survives the recount process, he looks to be the lone white Democratic survivor in a state that has gone Republican..  

The question is, will he want to run for another term in 2014 against another strong Republican challenger?  Or will he rather retire, letting his seat go GOP as well? 

I have a guy feeling that McIntyre won't retire next cycle. Rouzer could run again, but he might bd viewed as damaged goods. Ditto with Pantano; if he ran in 2014, that would be his third run for Congress.

There are a few others from the Assembly who could run in 2014:

- Sen. Thom Goolsby (New Hanover)
- Sen. Bill Rabon (Brunswick, Pender, Bladen)
- Rep. Rick Catlin (New Hanover)



Have you both forgotten my Rep. David Price (NC-4)?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #146 on: November 10, 2012, 04:36:18 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2012, 04:38:15 PM by Senator North Carolina Yankee »

I, for one, am glad that McIntrye might win. I liked Pantano way more the Rouzer. Don't care what anyone says, Pantano is a hero.

There is a reason I voted against Pantano, in spite of tremendous issues with Rouzer. And I am glad I did that because I don't think Pantano would have come that close.

I also didn't like the idea of being represented by someone way down in Wilmington, versus someone from right down the road (WE SHOULDN'T BE IN THIS DAMN DISTRICT Angry Angry Angry)
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Miles
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« Reply #147 on: November 12, 2012, 02:43:45 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2012, 02:48:37 PM by MilesC56 »

I, for one, am glad that McIntrye might win. I liked Pantano way more the Rouzer. Don't care what anyone says, Pantano is a hero.

There is a reason I voted against Pantano, in spite of tremendous issues with Rouzer. And I am glad I did that because I don't think Pantano would have come that close.

I also didn't like the idea of being represented by someone way down in Wilmington, versus someone from right down the road (WE SHOULDN'T BE IN THIS DAMN DISTRICT Angry Angry Angry)

The first Republican draft of the 7th made much more sense from a CoI perspective.

CD7 would have extended to Onslow and Carteret Counties and kept New Hanover intact while CD2 would still be centered around Johnston.

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Miles
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« Reply #148 on: November 15, 2012, 01:47:01 AM »

McIntyre is holding onto a 420 vote lead in CD7. After the official canvas on Friday, a winner will be declared. The loser can request a recount though.

The other major race that remains in the air is the Lieutenant Governor's race. Dan Forest, the stepson of Sue Myrick, is standing at a 10,300 vote lead (out of 4.3 million cast) over Linda Coleman, who was the Director of State Employment under Perdue. There were about 50,000 provisional ballots cast statewide that are being counted.

Personally, I'd really like to see Coleman win this; she's run a great campaign and she has the same last name as me, which would be neat Smiley.

If Forest wins, it will probably be because of the residual good will towards his mother in the Charlotte area coupled with McCrory's coattails there; Forest held Coleman to under 60% (59.9%) in Mecklenburg compared to Obama's 60.7%.
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Miles
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« Reply #149 on: November 16, 2012, 01:25:28 AM »

Up to a 483 vote margin for McIntyre.
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