North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 04:35:35 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9
Author Topic: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races  (Read 35798 times)
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #150 on: November 16, 2012, 10:57:52 PM »

Well folks, after all 12 CD7 counties were canvassed, McInytre has declared victory. His lead grew to 655 votes, though Rouzer can still request a recount.

In the LG race, Coleman picked up a few thousand votes; she's now up to 49.92% and trailing by about 6,300 votes (down from 10,300). This entitles her to request a recount. I really wish a Libertarian had run this race...
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #151 on: November 18, 2012, 04:02:06 AM »

CDs 9 and 11.



Roberts won the Mecklenburg part 50-47 but lost 2:1 in Union and Iredell. She did much better than I was expecting. Maybe in 2016...

Rogers did the best relative to Obama in the counties near the western tip of the 11th district. Still Meadows won 57.4%-42.6%.

I still think Shuler could have held it.
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,503
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #152 on: November 18, 2012, 01:18:16 PM »

Assuming Rep. Mike McIntyre survives the recount process, he looks to be the lone white Democratic survivor in a state that has gone Republican..  

The question is, will he want to run for another term in 2014 against another strong Republican challenger?  Or will he rather retire, letting his seat go GOP as well? 

I have a guy feeling that McIntyre won't retire next cycle. Rouzer could run again, but he might bd viewed as damaged goods. Ditto with Pantano; if he ran in 2014, that would be his third run for Congress.

There are a few others from the Assembly who could run in 2014:

- Sen. Thom Goolsby (New Hanover)
- Sen. Bill Rabon (Brunswick, Pender, Bladen)
- Rep. Rick Catlin (New Hanover)



I think you should probably enjoy the fact that he is in office now, for Republicans will likely run much better candidates against him next time -as well as against John Barrow.

Neither Mike nor John can escape their colleagues' fate and buck the Republican trend in the South forever. 
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #153 on: November 18, 2012, 03:32:13 PM »

Here's the NC Congressional vote by county. CD splits in counties are the gray lines.



And here's the data. For those not familiar with the DRA scheme, the key is above the chart. Its pretty straightforward.




Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #154 on: November 18, 2012, 04:05:05 PM »

Its also probably worth saying that Rouzer only won Johnston 60-40 compared to Romney's 63-36.

If Rouzer match Romney, he would have win the district 50.8-49.2.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #155 on: November 19, 2012, 12:13:21 PM »

Linda Coleman concedes.

She tightened the gap over the weekend, but her deficit still stood at about 6500 votes (.14%).

Well folks, 'ya can't win 'em all. I do respect her for conceding instead of dragging this out though.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #156 on: November 19, 2012, 12:51:44 PM »

Yep, if Coleman matched Obama in Mecklenburg, she would have gotten 50.10% statewide.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #157 on: November 19, 2012, 03:43:20 PM »

Yep, model for 2014.

Get someone who can outperform in either Mecklenburg or Wake County.

Or maybe even a little bit of both for good measure. Wink
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #158 on: November 19, 2012, 04:03:40 PM »

Yep, model for 2014.

Get someone who can outperform in either Mecklenburg or Wake County.

Or maybe even a little bit of both for good measure. Wink

As much as I love southern Charlotte, its stubborn Republican tendencies in downballot races annoys me.

Anywho, NC still hasn't allocated absentee/early votes by precinct, so until then, I'm more or less relegated to making statewide maps..
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #159 on: November 19, 2012, 04:17:53 PM »

When it does, can I get a precinct map of Mecklenburg between Obama and Romney?


I was surprised that Romney didn't get back into the low 40's. I was anticipating there being a Palin effect wearing off similar to what happened in certain tracks in upscale precincts in places like Orange county, etc.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #160 on: November 19, 2012, 04:47:34 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2012, 04:05:36 PM by MilesC56 »

Yeah, I'm sure I'll be turning out tons of maps.

The only county that seems to have already done it is New Hanover.

I looked at the NC-07 portion of it. McIntyre (left) won 51-49, even with the most Democratic precincts going to CD3. Romney carried the same precincts 59.1-39.5.

Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,541


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #161 on: November 19, 2012, 08:46:56 PM »

Yeah, I'm sure I'll be turning out tons of maps.

The only county that seems to have already done it is New Hanover.

I looked at the NC-07 portion of it. McIntyre (left) won 51-49, even with the most Democratic precincts going to CD3. Romney carried the same precincts 64.2-39.5.



Im thinking Republicans made a bit of a mistake making the 3rd more Democratic.  A district very similar to the current NC-03 elected Marty Lancaster as recently as 1992 and that district is still a lot more Dem downballot than at the Presidential level. 
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,590
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #162 on: November 19, 2012, 09:16:21 PM »

'As recently as 1992' is an interesting one given that this is America we're talking about. 1992 was twenty years ago. Weird, I know, but there you are.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #163 on: November 19, 2012, 10:35:05 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2012, 10:37:48 PM by MilesC56 »

Well, CD3 dropped from 61% McCain to 56% in redistricting and Perdue would have carried it with 54%. Still, even she had special regional advantages. If Jones retires, the best candidate I could think of for Democrats would be State Sen. Stan White; he represents the northern counties in the district and was just reelected in a competitive race. Still, the Democratic bench there is considerably thinner than it once was.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,541


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #164 on: November 19, 2012, 10:37:49 PM »

Well, CD3 dropped from 61% McCain to 56% in redistricting and Perdue would have carried it with 54%. Still, even she had special regional advantages. If Jones retires the best candidate I could think of for Democrats would be State Sen. Stan White; he represents the northern counties in the district and was just reelected in a competitive race. Still, the Democratic bench there is considerably thinner than it once was.

What if Jones himself switched?  I would think he'd be pretty safe here as a Dem. After all, he had been one for years. 
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #165 on: November 19, 2012, 10:39:48 PM »

Well, CD3 dropped from 61% McCain to 56% in redistricting and Perdue would have carried it with 54%. Still, even she had special regional advantages. If Jones retires the best candidate I could think of for Democrats would be State Sen. Stan White; he represents the northern counties in the district and was just reelected in a competitive race. Still, the Democratic bench there is considerably thinner than it once was.

What if Jones himself switched?  I would think he'd be pretty safe here as a Dem. After all, he had been one for years. 

I think he would have to draw a pretty strong Republican primary challenger for that to happen. But yes, he has a massive personal vote and would probably still be safe.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #166 on: November 20, 2012, 09:47:12 AM »

Rouzer has until noon to request a recount.

As the article points out, recounts in the past have not changed the results in NC; that was likely a factor in Coleman's concession yesterday.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #167 on: November 20, 2012, 11:47:56 AM »

Rouzer is calling for a recount citing "irregularities" in Bladen County.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #168 on: November 20, 2012, 12:01:35 PM »

Speaking of recounts, NC only has one other than I'm aware of. In Senate district 1, which consists of 8 counties along the northern coast, incumbent Stan White (D) was leading Bill Cook (R) in the unofficial tallies, but after the counties were canvassed, Cook jumped ahead by 32 votes.

This was more or less an open-seat race; White was appointed at the beginning of the previous session. His predecessor, the Senate Pro Tempore Marc Basnight (D), who had represented the district since 1984, stepped down for medical reasons.

Here's what the current result looks like:



Romney won the district 55.5/43.1. However, on the state level, this is only a slighly R-leaning seat; for instance, in the near-50/50 Lt. Gov contest, Forest beat Coleman there by a narrower 52.4/47.6.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #169 on: November 20, 2012, 02:04:39 PM »

When it does, can I get a precinct map of Mecklenburg between Obama and Romney?


I was surprised that Romney didn't get back into the low 40's. I was anticipating there being a Palin effect wearing off similar to what happened in certain tracks in upscale precincts in places like Orange county, etc.

Hasn't the minority population of Charlotte swelled in the last 4 years?
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #170 on: November 20, 2012, 04:03:34 PM »

Just going by the whole county results and some estimates for the partial counties, I'm putting out a preliminary guess that CD7 was 58.5/40.3 Romney, up from 57.6/41.6 in 2008.

When it does, can I get a precinct map of Mecklenburg between Obama and Romney?


I was surprised that Romney didn't get back into the low 40's. I was anticipating there being a Palin effect wearing off similar to what happened in certain tracks in upscale precincts in places like Orange county, etc.

Hasn't the minority population of Charlotte swelled in the last 4 years?

Yes. As of 2000, the nonwhile population was about 39%. Now its up to 49%.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #171 on: November 20, 2012, 05:11:37 PM »

Rowan, Union and Davidson seem to have early votes accounted for by precinct too. With that, I took a stab at calculating CD8. I got 57.2/41.5 Romney; pretty similar to the 57.4/41.7 in 2008.

The counties along the SC border swung to Obama while the ones in central NC swung to Romney, so a status quo result would make sense. Though, I was expecting more of a dropoff for Obama.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #172 on: November 21, 2012, 05:06:11 AM »

More of the peripheral counties in CD7 have broken down early voting by precinct. I have every county in CD7 here except for Robeson, which still has a good chunk of early votes unallocated. When Robeson county is added, it will push the numbers slightly in Obama's favor, so the overall result will probably close to 58.5/40.5 Romney.

Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #173 on: November 21, 2012, 05:49:19 AM »

Every county in CD5 has early votes allocated; there are a few hundred absentee votes in Davidson County unassigned, but nothing that would change the outcome.

Romney won the district 59.0/39.5. McCain carried it 56.8/42.0.

Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #174 on: November 21, 2012, 12:18:52 PM »

This wasn't a Congressional race, but I guess I'll still post it here.

This was the swing from 2008 to 2012 in the Governor's race:





Obviously, its hard to spin this as anything other than bad news for Democrats; every county swung to McCrory.

-The epicenter of the swing was around Perdue's old coastal Senate district (Craven, Carteret and Pamilco counties). This was to be expected, as Dalton lacked Perdue's regional strength here. Still, despite being from western NC, Dalton carried Pamlico in his 2008 LG win.

-There was a an area up in the northwest that swung pretty hard against Dalton too. I didn't really follow the local aspects of the race, but anyone know why? One guess I have is that, unlike Easley or Perdue, Dalton never got to do an ad with Andy Griffith (who died over the summer). 
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 11 queries.