North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
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  North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
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Author Topic: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races  (Read 35803 times)
Miles
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« Reply #175 on: November 21, 2012, 07:11:23 PM »

Its pretty likely Romney broke 60% in the new CD11. I calculated the old CD11 (it only had one minor county split). Obama lost it 52.1/46.5 in 2008; this year, he would have slid to 54.2/44.1.
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hopper
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« Reply #176 on: November 21, 2012, 07:52:11 PM »

Looks like McIntyre will stick around for another cycle. The R's would love to knock him off.
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Miles
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« Reply #177 on: November 27, 2012, 01:01:34 AM »

The recount in CD7 will conclude Wednesday.

The Pender, Cumberland and Brunswick county precincts have already finished counting. Overall, "3 or 4" votes changed, but nothing to swing the outcome.

There are also a few outstanding ballots in one Bladen county precinct, though its a relatively small county and McIntye carried it 2:1.
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Miles
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« Reply #178 on: November 27, 2012, 09:40:31 AM »

Well, I'm not particularly happy about Shuler.
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Frodo
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« Reply #179 on: November 28, 2012, 09:54:56 PM »

Rouzer has conceded
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Miles
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« Reply #180 on: November 28, 2012, 10:15:36 PM »


Thanks.

I was waiting to see if he asked for another hand recount (which he was still entitled to do) before I posted anything.

Great news!
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Miles
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« Reply #181 on: December 03, 2012, 10:19:19 PM »

In SD-01, Stan White conceded as his 21-vote deficit held.

This brings the chamber up to 33/17 Republican. Of the 17 Democrats, only 7 are white.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #182 on: December 03, 2012, 10:32:26 PM »

In SD-01, Stan White conceded as his 21-vote deficit held.

This brings the chamber up to 33/17 Republican. Of the 17 Democrats, only 7 are white.

So, basically, North Carolina goes "Deep South" way in this respect - Democratic legislative delegations in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiaana, Georgia  and so on are already "heavily Black"....
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Miles
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« Reply #183 on: December 04, 2012, 11:25:52 PM »

Walter Jones was one of the Republicans that Boehner punished for voting against Ryan's budget in the 112th Congress.

Jones was stripped of his seat on Financial Services; with the departures of Don Manzullo and Ron Paul, Jones would have been the 4th most senior Republican on the committee. Not surprisingly, the newly-elected Robert Pittenger was appointed to that committee. He'll obviously be far more inclined to tow the party line.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #184 on: December 05, 2012, 02:20:16 AM »

Walter Jones was one of the Republicans that Boehner punished for voting against Ryan's budget in the 112th Congress.

Jones was stripped of his seat on Financial Services; with the departures of Don Manzullo and Ron Paul, Jones would have been the 4th most senior Republican on the committee. Not surprisingly, the newly-elected Robert Pittenger was appointed to that committee. He'll obviously be far more inclined to tow the party line.


BOTH parties now like "loyalists" and hate "mavericks". Nothing really new, but recently that became a sort of mania for "party leaders". As i said many times - they dream about elections where 435 Nancy Pelosi-clones will run against 435 John Boehner-clones...)))) It will be so much "fun", that one would like to commit suicide because of boredom...)))
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Miles
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« Reply #185 on: December 07, 2012, 02:17:54 AM »

Hmm...Jones may go with the Democrats and sign the discharge petition. Good for him.
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Miles
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« Reply #186 on: December 08, 2012, 02:12:30 AM »

'Props to Kissell for being gracious in defeat.
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Frodo
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« Reply #187 on: December 13, 2012, 07:06:55 PM »

Feel free to move this, but after the setbacks of the past two years, the North Carolina Democratic Party is looking for a fresh start:

Embattled state Democratic Party chairman won't seek second term

BY ROB CHRISTENSEN - RCHRISTENSEN@NEWSOBSERVER.COM

RALEIGH -- David Parker, the embattled state Democratic Party chairman, said Wednesday he would not seek another term, apparently ending one of the more turbulent episodes in the party’s recent history.

Parker’s announcement was a relief to party and elected leaders, who were fearful that Parker – who has a loyal following among many party activists – would successfully seek another two-year term when the state Executive Committee meets in February.

Many party leaders had already been quietly lining up behind state Sen. Eric Mansfield of Fayetteville as their choice even before Parker’s announcement.

Mansfield, an African-American physician, Baptist minister and retired Army officer, said Wednesday that he was “very strongly considering” a bid for party chairman. He unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor earlier this year.

“I am getting a lot of phone calls from across the state,” Mansfield said in a telephone interview from the White House, where he was attending a Christmas Party. “I will probably make a decision in the next three or four days. I am talking to activists and grass-roots people, and elected officials trying to get a clear voice from across the state.”

The position of state Democratic Party chair is expected to take on added importance now that the Republicans control all three branches of state government in Raleigh.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/12/13/2541377/embattled-state-democratic-party.html#storylink=cpy




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Miles
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« Reply #188 on: December 13, 2012, 08:45:30 PM »

Great news!
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #189 on: December 13, 2012, 10:05:16 PM »

The loss of the entire state legislature in 2010 should have been enough to throw Parker out.  It was as if Democrats didnt even try there. 
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Miles
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« Reply #190 on: December 18, 2012, 12:30:29 AM »

The loss of the entire state legislature in 2010 should have been enough to throw Parker out.  It was as if Democrats didnt even try there. 

The results this year didn't exactly help his case either.

Here was the State Senate:

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smoltchanov
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« Reply #191 on: December 18, 2012, 03:32:03 AM »

The loss of the entire state legislature in 2010 should have been enough to throw Parker out.  It was as if Democrats didnt even try there. 

The results this year didn't exactly help his case either.

Here was the State Senate:



So - mostly Black areas and liberal ones (like Research Triangle)Huh?
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Miles
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« Reply #192 on: December 18, 2012, 12:36:54 PM »

The Democrats need 6 seats to break even. Using this year's result as a baseline, the seats that could be competitive within the next decade are:


(numbering goes east -> west)

-SD1 (the notheastern coast): The Republican won by 39 votes.
-SD9 (New Hanover County): Only slighty red, but Team D will need a high-caliber candidate.
-SD12 (centered in Harnett County): The Republican won with 51%.
-SD15 (northwestern Wake): The incumbent, Neal Hunt, is popular but may retire within the next few cycles. Trending D.
-SD17 (southern Wake): The Republican won the open seat with 54% but its also trending D.

The 6th pickup would be less obvious. Here are a few possibilities:
-SD47: If Walter Dalton wanted to make a legislative comeback, this would be the best place for it. Its actually a few points more Democratic than the district he held for 14 years. Dalton would keep his home of Rutherford but trade Cleveland for a few locally-Dem counties plus deeply Republican Mitchell. The incumbent, Ralph Hise, is only in his second term.

-SD50: In 2010, this was the closest race in the State; Sen, Martin Snow (D) lost by a few hundred votes. This year, he lost by 14 points in a rematch. I'm convinced Democrats can compete here with the right candidate. Hayden Rogers lives here. This is the type of district where the Democrat would probably be better off without having Obama at the top of the ticket.

-SD10: This district flipped in 2010 and was redrawn to include a sizable slice of Johnston County. The incumbent Republican is a freshmen, and Sampson and Duplin Counties usually support Democrats, but I'm not sure if they'd be enough to offset the 37% of the district that Johnston now makes up.
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Miles
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« Reply #193 on: December 21, 2012, 05:33:50 PM »

This is gubernatorial, but I'll post it here anyway.

Oh, I just can't wait for the new McCrory Administration! The Governor-elect just appointed Art Pope to be one of his chief budget directors.

Pope, a multi-millionaire, was best known for bankrolling the Republicans' takeover of the Assembly in 2010. This would be like President Romney appointing David Koch to lead the OMB.
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JacobNC
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« Reply #194 on: December 22, 2012, 02:07:04 PM »

The Democrats need 6 seats to break even. Using this year's result as a baseline, the seats that could be competitive within the next decade are:


(numbering goes east -> west)

-SD1 (the notheastern coast): The Republican won by 39 votes.
-SD9 (New Hanover County): Only slighty red, but Team D will need a high-caliber candidate.
-SD12 (centered in Harnett County): The Republican won with 51%.
-SD15 (northwestern Wake): The incumbent, Neal Hunt, is popular but may retire within the next few cycles. Trending D.
-SD17 (southern Wake): The Republican won the open seat with 54% but its also trending D.

The 6th pickup would be less obvious. Here are a few possibilities:
-SD47: If Walter Dalton wanted to make a legislative comeback, this would be the best place for it. Its actually a few points more Democratic than the district he held for 14 years. Dalton would keep his home of Rutherford but trade Cleveland for a few locally-Dem counties plus deeply Republican Mitchell. The incumbent, Ralph Hise, is only in his second term.

-SD50: In 2010, this was the closest race in the State; Sen, Martin Snow (D) lost by a few hundred votes. This year, he lost by 14 points in a rematch. I'm convinced Democrats can compete here with the right candidate. Hayden Rogers lives here. This is the type of district where the Democrat would probably be better off without having Obama at the top of the ticket.

-SD10: This district flipped in 2010 and was redrawn to include a sizable slice of Johnston County. The incumbent Republican is a freshmen, and Sampson and Duplin Counties usually support Democrats, but I'm not sure if they'd be enough to offset the 37% of the district that Johnston now makes up.

Add the Cumberland County district to the list (Wesley Meredith).  I think he got a bad challenger this year but he was once considered the most vulnerable Republican.

This is gubernatorial, but I'll post it here anyway.

Oh, I just can't wait for the new McCrory Administration! The Governor-elect just appointed Art Pope to be one of his chief budget directors.

Pope, a multi-millionaire, was best known for bankrolling the Republicans' takeover of the Assembly in 2010. This would be like President Romney appointing David Koch to lead the OMB.

So much for Governor Moderate.  With the Republicans having a veto-proof majority I expected whatever moderate-ness Pat McCrory has will be irrelevant, but with McCrory himself appointing Pope to write the state budget, it looks like North Carolina may have officially gone to Hell.

Walter Jones was one of the Republicans that Boehner punished for voting against Ryan's budget in the 112th Congress.

Jones was stripped of his seat on Financial Services; with the departures of Don Manzullo and Ron Paul, Jones would have been the 4th most senior Republican on the committee. Not surprisingly, the newly-elected Robert Pittenger was appointed to that committee. He'll obviously be far more inclined to tow the party line.


Haha.  Of course the Republicans would appoint the guy from Charlotte to the financial services committee, who totally won't be in the pocket of big banks. :sarcasm:

Jones, though, is pretty pissed off at Republicans, but I wouldn't expect him to make a party switch as some have speculated.  He considers himself to be in the Tea Party/Ron Paul wing of the Republican party, although it's sometimes hard to tell since he votes with Dems so often.
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Miles
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« Reply #195 on: January 05, 2013, 05:15:00 PM »

Ugh, the Pope McCrory Administration started today.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #196 on: January 05, 2013, 05:22:19 PM »

The Democrats need 6 seats to break even. Using this year's result as a baseline, the seats that could be competitive within the next decade are:


(numbering goes east -> west)

-SD1 (the notheastern coast): The Republican won by 39 votes.
-SD9 (New Hanover County): Only slighty red, but Team D will need a high-caliber candidate.
-SD12 (centered in Harnett County): The Republican won with 51%.
-SD15 (northwestern Wake): The incumbent, Neal Hunt, is popular but may retire within the next few cycles. Trending D.
-SD17 (southern Wake): The Republican won the open seat with 54% but its also trending D.

The 6th pickup would be less obvious. Here are a few possibilities:
-SD47: If Walter Dalton wanted to make a legislative comeback, this would be the best place for it. Its actually a few points more Democratic than the district he held for 14 years. Dalton would keep his home of Rutherford but trade Cleveland for a few locally-Dem counties plus deeply Republican Mitchell. The incumbent, Ralph Hise, is only in his second term.

-SD50: In 2010, this was the closest race in the State; Sen, Martin Snow (D) lost by a few hundred votes. This year, he lost by 14 points in a rematch. I'm convinced Democrats can compete here with the right candidate. Hayden Rogers lives here. This is the type of district where the Democrat would probably be better off without having Obama at the top of the ticket.

-SD10: This district flipped in 2010 and was redrawn to include a sizable slice of Johnston County. The incumbent Republican is a freshmen, and Sampson and Duplin Counties usually support Democrats, but I'm not sure if they'd be enough to offset the 37% of the district that Johnston now makes up.

This guy is from the area, could he win?

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Miles
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« Reply #197 on: January 05, 2013, 05:25:11 PM »

The NC Democrats should take any good recruits they can get Smiley
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krazen1211
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« Reply #198 on: January 06, 2013, 11:12:13 AM »

The Democrats need 6 seats to break even. Using this year's result as a baseline, the seats that could be competitive within the next decade are:


(numbering goes east -> west)

-SD1 (the notheastern coast): The Republican won by 39 votes.
-SD9 (New Hanover County): Only slighty red, but Team D will need a high-caliber candidate.
-SD12 (centered in Harnett County): The Republican won with 51%.
-SD15 (northwestern Wake): The incumbent, Neal Hunt, is popular but may retire within the next few cycles. Trending D.
-SD17 (southern Wake): The Republican won the open seat with 54% but its also trending D.

The 6th pickup would be less obvious. Here are a few possibilities:
-SD47: If Walter Dalton wanted to make a legislative comeback, this would be the best place for it. Its actually a few points more Democratic than the district he held for 14 years. Dalton would keep his home of Rutherford but trade Cleveland for a few locally-Dem counties plus deeply Republican Mitchell. The incumbent, Ralph Hise, is only in his second term.

-SD50: In 2010, this was the closest race in the State; Sen, Martin Snow (D) lost by a few hundred votes. This year, he lost by 14 points in a rematch. I'm convinced Democrats can compete here with the right candidate. Hayden Rogers lives here. This is the type of district where the Democrat would probably be better off without having Obama at the top of the ticket.

-SD10: This district flipped in 2010 and was redrawn to include a sizable slice of Johnston County. The incumbent Republican is a freshmen, and Sampson and Duplin Counties usually support Democrats, but I'm not sure if they'd be enough to offset the 37% of the district that Johnston now makes up.


http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/IPD-NC-Senate-Scoreboard-Nov-7-WINNERS.pdf


What happened in SD-25?
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Miles
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« Reply #199 on: January 06, 2013, 11:57:58 AM »


It was represented by William Purcell, a conservative Democrat, since 1997. He retired this year and Gene McLaurin held it for the Democrats. The district only picked up a handful of precincts in Rowan County.
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