North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races

[MilesC56]

District 1
DEM: Rep. G.K Butterfield (D-Wilson)
-Incumbent filed for 5th term.
REP: Peter DiLauro
LIB: Darryl Holloman

District 2
DEM: Steve Wilkins
REP: Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-Harnett)
-Incumbent seeking 2nd term.
LIB: Brian Irving (L)

District 3
DEM: Erick Anderson
REP: Rep. Walter Jones (R-Pitt)
-Incumbent filed seeking 10th term.

District 4
DEM: Rep. David Price (D-Chapel Hill)
-Incumbent seeking 13th term.
REP: Tim D'Annuzio (R)
LIB: Jim Allen (R)

District 5
DEM: Elisabeth Motsinger (D)
REP: Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-Avery)
-Incumbent seeking 5th term.

District 6
DEM: Tony Foriest
REP: Rep. John Howard Coble (R-Guilford)
-Incumbent seeking 15th term.

District 7[/u]
DEM: Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-Robeson)
-Incumbent seeking 8th term.
REP: David Rouzer

District 8
DEM: Rep. Larry Kissell (D-Montgomery)
-Incumbent seeking 3rd term.
REP: Richard Hudson

District 9
Rep. Sue W. Myrick (R-Mecklenburg)
-Incumbent will not seek 10th term.
DEM: Jennifer Roberts
REP: Robert Pittenger
LIB: Curtis Campbell

District 10
DEM: Patsy Keever
REP:Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-Gaston)
-Incumbent seeking 5th term.

District 11
Rep. Heath Shuler (D-Haywood)
-Incumbent not running for 4th term.
DEM: Hayden Rogers (D)
REP: Mark Meadows (R)

District 12
DEM: Rep. Mel Watt (D-Mecklenburg)
-Incumbent seeking for 11th term.
REP: Jack Brosch (R)

District 13
Rep. Brad Miller (D-Raleigh)
Incumbent not seeking 6th term.
DEM: Charles Malone
REP: George Holding

President/Governor numbers:

[smoltchanov]

Who are the most seious candidates against McIntyre, Kissel and Shuler? Most likely - state legislators? And most likely (it's Republican party and it's North Carolina after all) - very conservative?

[MilesC56]

For Shuler I'd say it Jeff Hunt; he's the most entrenched. He's from Henderson county, but Shuler performs poorly in that part of the district anyway.

Both of McIntyre's have pros and cons. The GOP establishment seems to favor Rouzer; that's why they drew the 7th to include Johnston county. Still, I think Rouzer's appeal will be pretty limited to Johnston county.
Pantano has more name recognition in the rest of the district and he made a good showing in 2010. Pantano won Pender and Brunswick counties in 2010. The new 7th includes all of Brunswick, as well as the conservative parts of Pender and New Hanovor.
Bottom line: I think Pantano would be stronger, but the establishment will probably push for Rouzer.

Kissell better hopes he gets Robinson....

[smoltchanov]

Kissell better hopes he gets Robinson....

That famous mad ultrarightwinger? "Black Jesse Helms"?)))))

[MilesC56]

Kissell better hopes he gets Robinson....

That famous mad ultrarightwinger? "Black Jesse Helms"?)))))

He'd be the weakest opponent.

Kissell would be an underdog to any of the others.

[smoltchanov]

Kissell better hopes he gets Robinson....

That famous mad ultrarightwinger? "Black Jesse Helms"?)))))

He'd be the weakest opponent.

Kissell would be an underdog to any of the others.

Thanks!

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Best case scenario for the Dems at this point looks like 9-4. Kissell and the open 13th are as good as gone, I doubt Shuler survives another term, and McIntyre is a tossup at best.

[Vasall des Midas]

Best case scenario for the Dems at this point looks like 9-4. Kissell and the open 13th are as good as gone, I doubt Shuler survives another term, and McIntyre is a tossup at best.

Best case is 13-0 D.

Oh, you meant a realistic, yet somewhat D-favorable outcome. Yes, that would be 9-4.

[tb78]

So are the districts official now?

And from the way things look now, I think Districts 7,8,13 could be turnovers to the Republicans. I think Shuler will hold on though.

[Vasall des Midas]

Shuler is hardest to place, but the others can be easily ranked

13 (goner, and not much to do with the old district)
2
8
7 (tossup / tilt R)

I'd put Shuler between 8 and 7 in that, but other placements can be argued. Not more gone than the 13th, though.

[MilesC56]

So are the districts official now?

And from the way things look now, I think Districts 7,8,13 could be turnovers to the Republicans. I think Shuler will hold on though.

The lawsuits don't seem to be going anywhere.

[vern1988]

I can see 5, 6 and maybe 10 giving Republicans headaches in the years to come. And maybe this year if the right candidates run.

[tb78]

So are the districts official now?

And from the way things look now, I think Districts 7,8,13 could be turnovers to the Republicans. I think Shuler will hold on though.

The lawsuits don't seem to be going anywhere.

Well I watched a news story the other night about Howard Coble and they did not mention my county as the added areas, I live in Surry Co, so either they messed up or they were going by the old districts.

[RogueBeaver]

Shuler's fundraising has dried up, so he's probably retiring.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/fourth-quarter-fundraising-winners-and-losers/2012/02/01/gIQAeAH8hQ_blog.html

[krazen1211]

Heath Shuler is not seeking re-election!


R+1.

[MilesC56]

GOD DAMMIT!!!

[RogueBeaver]

Confirmation.

http://nationaljournal.com/congress/democratic-rep-heath-shuler-to-retire-20120202

[smoltchanov]

Obviously bad thing for Democrats. Only people like Shuler have chances to hold districts like his. Despite "progressive"'s cries that "he is not real Democrat" he IS a real Democrat in his district, where most Democrats are similar to him. If Democratic (or Republican) purists would have their way -  both parties (especially Democrats, because conservatives still outnumber liberals, though not all of them are "pure conservatives") would risk a "permanent minority" status with 40% of population calling itself "moderate" either voting for third-parties (such situation begs for 1-2 centrist parties in addition to existing two, which became more and more "pure activist") or - holding their nose - for "lesser evil" in each particular election

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

GOD DAMMIT!!!

Quoted with added emotion.

[Vasall des Midas]

Obviously bad thing for Democrats. Only people like Shuler have chances to hold districts like his.

And not that large a one, so it's not R+1 as we already counted it as such even with Shuler in.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

Looking at the margins, fmd the Republicans gerrymandered the sh**t out of this state.

[Vasall des Midas]

Looking at the margins, fmd the Republicans gerrymandered the sh**t out of this state.

Yes... in other news, the sun rises in the east and Dems did a pretty decent job of gerrying the state in the past...

[MilesC56]

Seeing as McIntyre is the only NC conservaDam left with a decent chance of winning, I made a baseline chart.

This is how he would have to perform in each county to get 50.1% districtwide.

County Analysis:

Johnston:  A fairly conservative county. It was the geographical core of the old NC-02 , but it was more than canceled out by liberal parts of Cumberland and Wake counties. Etheridge only got 33% here in 2010 against Ellmers. I put McIntyre at 37%, assuming he faces Rouzer, who represents Johnston county. Maybe McIntyre could crack 40% here against Pantano.

Sampson: It doesn't vote for Democratic Presidential candidates, but all the statewide Democrats won here in 2008. Perdue got 53%; I think McIntyre could match that, of not do slightly better.

Duplin: Like Sampson, voted against Obama, but is Democratic on the state level. Perdue got 59% and Hagan got 53%; I think 60% is reasonable for McIntyre, since much of this county is already in his district.

Lenior: The liberal parts of this county are in NC-01.

Cumberland: The district now includes only a few (red) precincts here. 45% is probably in reach for McIntyre.

Robeson: The 7th now only has an small arm of Robeson left; McIntyre lives in this county and he's carried the county as a whole by overwhelming margins in the past. I think he could break 70% in the few precincts he has left here.

Hoke: I think these are fairly liberal precincts, so 75% shouldn't be out of reach.

Bladen: Though its trending R nationally, Bladen is solidly D at the state level. It gave Hagan 59%, Perdue 65% and it even voted for Marshall over Burr in 2010. I think McIntyre has cracked 80% here in the past, so he should be easily able to crack 70%.

Columbus: This was one of the counties that swung most against Obama, but like Bladen, it gave Perdue 65%. At the very least, McIntyre should be able to match that.

Brunswick: Brunswick was one of the first counties in southeastern NC to shake off its Democratic roots. The only statewide Democrats who won here in 2008 were Hagan and Cooper; Pantano also won here in 2010. I have McIntyre running 2 points ahead of Perdue here, getting 47%. Maybe he could carry Brunswick county against Rouzer; I think overall, Rouzer's appeal in the southern counties will be limited.

New Hanover: The liberal parts of this county have been sucked out and put into Jones' CD3. I think McInTyre could hit 47%; probably better against Rouzer, but worse against Pantano.

Pender: Only a few precincts are left in the district. McIntyre was left with the relatively conservative parts of the county, which are based around Surf City.  

[MilesC56]

Maybe if I feel depressed, I'll also do NC-08

[Fuzzy]

GOD DAMMIT!!!

[gives hug]




Btw, what are the odds that the latest map with be overruled by the courts?