North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

It's an internal poll? lol...


Also, I thought it was Shuler and McIntrye who voted against Healthcare? Not Kissell.

All 3 of them voted no on its passage, but McIntyre was the only one to actually vote for its repeal.

ah, ok. Thanks for the clarification

[MilesC56]

Donald Rumsfeld is helping Pantano.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

Donald Rumsfeld is helping Pantano.

Pantano for Congress!

[MilesC56]

Donald Rumsfeld is helping Pantano.

Pantano for Congress!

The more I look at the race, the more I think that Rouzer is gonna get pwned. He has no appeal/name recognition outside of Johnston county.

[MilesC56]

Howard Coble leads in GOP primary polling with 64% and has a 75/8 favorable rating.

But, this pollster seems to think he could be forced into a runoff:

The polling firm asked respondents to react to "some information about Coble that could potentially come up during the course of the campaign," causing Coble's ballot score to drop to 47 percent, "below the crucial 50 percent mark."

IIRC, don't you only need to break 40% to avoid a runoff in NC?

[MilesC56]

Donald Rumsfeld is helping Pantano.

Pantano for Congress!

The more I look at the race, the more I think that Rouzer is gonna get pwned. He has no appeal/name recognition outside of Johnston county.

Ellmers is endorsing Rouzer. Rouzer, not surprisingly, also has support from Tillis and Berger.

Jones endorsed Pantano last cycle, so I'm assuming that still holds.

Looks like immigration was a big issue at their last debate

[MilesC56]

Even though most people think he already is a memeber, Kissell has offiically joined the Blue Dogs.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Why didn't Perdue veto this crazy ass gerrymander?

[MilesC56]

Why didn't Perdue veto this crazy ass gerrymander?

Because the Governor can't veto redistricting in NC

It wasn't until 1996 that the Assembly gave the Governor's office veto power over bills; NC has had a historically weak executive branch.

However, the Democratic Assembly still kept power over the redistricting process...mainly because the legislators didn't want the Governor to veto gerrymanders like this. Of course, that kinda came back to bite them this time around...

[Senator Napoleon]

Donald Rumsfeld is helping Pantano.

"Helping", yeah.

[MilesC56]

Again, Kissell gets the NRA endorsement. 'Should help him in the new parts of the district.

In the 7th, McIntyre has raised over $1 million; his CoH advantage is also 4 times what Pantano and Rouzer have combined.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My family and I went out and voted for Rouzer, yesterday. Turnout is lower than expected as far as early voting is concerned, at the place we went.

While driving back we discovered this empty store front with a bunch of Rouzer signs on the windows. Poking around, the space is loaded with hundreds of his signs, but no lights on or campaign people. Either some kind of massive hometurf operation is underway, or a significant amount of money has been waisted to purchase signs that will go to waste.

What all is included in his State Senate district?

[MilesC56]

What all is included in his State Senate district?

Rouzer currently represents all of Johnston county and parts Wayne county west of Goldsboro.

After redistricting, his seat was redrawn to include most of Johnston plus Sampson and Duplin counties.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?


Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

[MilesC56]

Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?


Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

Yes, his only base in the new 7th is Johnston county.

I'm not sure...culturally, Sampson is rural but I think Rouzer could carry it because of its proximity to his Senate district.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?


Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

Yes, his only base in the new 7th is Johnston county.

I'm not sure...culturally, Sampson is rural but I think Rouzer could carry it because of its proximity to his Senate district.

You don't think Johnston is rural?

[MilesC56]

Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?


Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

Yes, his only base in the new 7th is Johnston county.

I'm not sure...culturally, Sampson is rural but I think Rouzer could carry it because of its proximity to his Senate district.

You don't think Johnston is rural?

Eh, I'd consider it more suburban/exurban....it isn't quite as rural as some other counties in the district (Columbus, Bladen, etc.).  

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?
Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

Yes, his only base in the new 7th is Johnston county.

I'm not sure...culturally, Sampson is rural but I think Rouzer could carry it because of its proximity to his Senate district.

You don't think Johnston is rural?

Eh, I'd consider it more suburban/exurban....it isn't quite as rural as some other counties in the district (Columbus, Bladen, etc.).  

It has more people and a growing population. But it is a conservative county that still thinks of itself as rural, if that makes sense. This is especially the case amongst Republicans.

[MilesC56]

Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?
Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

Yes, his only base in the new 7th is Johnston county.

I'm not sure...culturally, Sampson is rural but I think Rouzer could carry it because of its proximity to his Senate district.

You don't think Johnston is rural?

Eh, I'd consider it more suburban/exurban....it isn't quite as rural as some other counties in the district (Columbus, Bladen, etc.).  

It has more people and a growing population. But it is a conservative county that still thinks of itself as rural, if that makes sense. This is especially the case amongst Republicans.

Yeah, that makes sense.

I guess I kinda think Johnston is to Wake what Union or Iredell are to Mecklenburg...rural conservative counties that are growing from the exurban population.

[Devils30]

Did the GOP make a mistake in drawing the new 13th? On paper it looks like a clear GOP win as mccain won it 54-45 but NC polls show Obama doing well in the Raleigh area. Because it's a high population growth area I could see it trending sharply Dem (maybe romney wins it by 4-7) this year and by 2016 it becomes a genuine tossup.

[MilesC56]

Did the GOP make a mistake in drawing the new 13th? On paper it looks like a clear GOP win as mccain won it 54-45 but NC polls show Obama doing well in the Raleigh area. Because it's a high population growth area I could see it trending sharply Dem (maybe romney wins it by 4-7) this year and by 2016 it becomes a genuine tossup.

No, not really. Its really a 'diet coke' version of CD9; basically, CD13 is to Raleigh what CD9 is to Charlotte. Its trending D but it still reliably R in statewide races. Even the Wake part of the district would have voted for McCain.

It also doesn't help that Paul Coble, former Raleigh mayor, will be the Republican nominee

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Did the GOP make a mistake in drawing the new 13th? On paper it looks like a clear GOP win as mccain won it 54-45 but NC polls show Obama doing well in the Raleigh area. Because it's a high population growth area I could see it trending sharply Dem (maybe romney wins it by 4-7) this year and by 2016 it becomes a genuine tossup.

No, not really. Its really a 'diet coke' version of CD9; basically, CD13 is to Raleigh what CD9 is to Charlotte. Its trending D but it still reliably R in statewide races. Even the Wake part of the district would have voted for McCain.

It also doesn't help that Paul Coble, former Raleigh mayor, will be the Republican nominee

Are you sure? Holding seems to have been running far more ads. And there are PACs running ads bashing Coble's record and votes increase Wake County's debt.

Also keep an eye on Elmers. She pissed off some people in Harnett county last year when the Tornadoes hit. She volunteered at a center in Raleigh, instead of one in hard hit Harnett county where she lives. And one of her opponents is running ads claiming she is pro-gay marriage because she opposes amendment 1.

[MilesC56]

Did the GOP make a mistake in drawing the new 13th? On paper it looks like a clear GOP win as mccain won it 54-45 but NC polls show Obama doing well in the Raleigh area. Because it's a high population growth area I could see it trending sharply Dem (maybe romney wins it by 4-7) this year and by 2016 it becomes a genuine tossup.

No, not really. Its really a 'diet coke' version of CD9; basically, CD13 is to Raleigh what CD9 is to Charlotte. Its trending D but it still reliably R in statewide races. Even the Wake part of the district would have voted for McCain.

It also doesn't help that Paul Coble, former Raleigh mayor, will be the Republican nominee

Are you sure? Holding seems to have been running far more ads. And there are PACs running ads bashing Coble's record and votes increase Wake County's debt.

Also keep an eye on Elmers. She pissed off some people in Harnett county last year when the Tornadoes hit. She volunteered at a center in Raleigh, instead of one in hard hit Harnett county where she lives. And one of her opponents is running ads claiming she is pro-gay marriage because she opposes amendment 1.

I've heard more about Coble, so I could be wrong about that.

I would have liked to see Etheridge run for Congress again. Ellmers would probably still be the favorite, but Etheridge could have made it something of a competitive race.

[MilesC56]

This is why I like Congressman Howard Coble so much. I wish him well tonight in his primary.

[MilesC56]

I'll have some stats on the primaries up after I get done with exams this weekend.