I don't see him getting the 40% in Union.
Union will be though, I agree. He's already represented a pretty big swath of it for 4 years now though. Also, Obama got 39% in the Union part of the district and Hagan got 42%, so I think 40% would be a decent benchmark for Kissell.
I think that, other than the counties that he's safe in, Kissell needs to focus the most on Cabarrus.
Indeed, his performance in Cabarrus will make or break him. 44.5% will be difficult- even in 2008 he didn't break 43%.
Kissell, if anything, seems to overperform in Union, however. In 2008, he outperformed Obama by over two points in the portion of the county he currently represents, and in 2010 he outperformed Obama by about a point and a half. Even with the addition of more Republican areas of the county, I see 40% in Union as being easier to achieve than 44.5% in Cabarrus.
