FL: Mason-Dixon: Romney over Obama by 4, others trail the President
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  FL: Mason-Dixon: Romney over Obama by 4, others trail the President
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Author Topic: FL: Mason-Dixon: Romney over Obama by 4, others trail the President  (Read 2191 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: January 29, 2012, 02:13:39 AM »

New Poll: Florida President by Mason-Dixon on 2012-01-26

Summary: D: 44%, R: 48%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

...

50-41 Obama/Gingrich
50-39 Obama/Santorum
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2012, 02:41:11 AM »

Here are the crosstabs:

http://www.baynews9.com/article/news/2012/january/375474/Florida-Decides-Poll:-Florida-likes-Mitt#results

QUESTION: In general, do you have a positive view or a negative view regarding Mitt romney's business background at Bain Capital, the private equity, venture capital and investment firm he co-founded and worded at from 1984 to 1999?

46% positive
30% negative

...

What ?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2012, 02:42:59 AM »

And I thought it would take $200 million to get numbers half that good on the issue.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2012, 02:45:53 AM »

MD tends too be a bit (R) friendly, let's be honest. That said, Romney having a slight lead at the moment isn't too hard to believe considering he's all over the air right now.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2012, 02:49:51 AM »

MD tends too be a bit (R) friendly, let's be honest. That said, Romney having a slight lead at the moment isn't too hard to believe considering he's all over the air right now.

Yup.

At this point in 2008, the polls were even bleaker for Obama. Take a look here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=12

And the polls seem to vary widely about how much support Romney would get among Democrats: Quinnipiac says only 6%, Mason-Dixon and Suffolk say 15-17%.

I think that will change after the conventions, as more Democrats learn about reckless corporate crook and tax evader Mitt Romney and then Obama will get close to 90% of them in the end. The state will be extremely close, like in most elections.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2012, 02:57:38 AM »

MD tends too be a bit (R) friendly, let's be honest. That said, Romney having a slight lead at the moment isn't too hard to believe considering he's all over the air right now.

Yup.

At this point in 2008, the polls were even bleaker for Obama. Take a look here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=12

And the polls seem to vary widely about how much support Romney would get among Democrats: Quinnipiac says only 6%, Mason-Dixon and Suffolk say 15-17%.

I think that will change after the conventions, as more Democrats learn about reckless corporate crook and tax evader Mitt Romney and then Obama will get close to 90% of them in the end. The state will be extremely close, like in most elections.

2000 was an exception. Florida isn't really extremely close. It has a Republican lean and if anything seems to be moving in that direction. If the race is competitive I'd definitely expect Florida to go Republican (especially if it's Romney v Obama).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2012, 03:15:15 AM »

MD tends too be a bit (R) friendly, let's be honest. That said, Romney having a slight lead at the moment isn't too hard to believe considering he's all over the air right now.

Yup.

At this point in 2008, the polls were even bleaker for Obama. Take a look here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=12

And the polls seem to vary widely about how much support Romney would get among Democrats: Quinnipiac says only 6%, Mason-Dixon and Suffolk say 15-17%.

I think that will change after the conventions, as more Democrats learn about reckless corporate crook and tax evader Mitt Romney and then Obama will get close to 90% of them in the end. The state will be extremely close, like in most elections.

2000 was an exception. Florida isn't really extremely close. It has a Republican lean and if anything seems to be moving in that direction. If the race is competitive I'd definitely expect Florida to go Republican (especially if it's Romney v Obama).

It depends if the "trend" towards the Republicans continues in the coming election. If Obama wins by about 5% nationally, FL could still be extremely close with a slight Obama win. I would say that if Obama wins by 3 nationally, it could start tipping to Mitt Romney. But there are too many variables leading up to the election, that could change the "swings" and "trends".
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colincb
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« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2012, 03:35:28 AM »
« Edited: January 29, 2012, 03:37:02 AM by colincb »

...

And the polls seem to vary widely about how much support Romney would get among Democrats: Quinnipiac says only 6%, Mason-Dixon and Suffolk say 15-17%.

...

According to Chuck Todd's "How Obama Won", both Ds and Rs went 87%-12% for their party's nominee in Florida whereas MD has Obama getting 77% and Romney getting 15% of Dems with 8% undecided.  I suspect the race is a little closer than what MD has it, which puts it in toss-up territory statistically.  Obama's up 3% with independents with 13% undecided.  He won that demographic by 7% in 2008 so he's not running as well with them.

My gut tells me that this will be a tough state for Obama because of FL housing market that seems to be getting blamed disproportionately on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae ("GSEs") based on the poll's results on Newt's consulting role with the GSEs.  That's not what actually happened as non-GSEs (Wall Street and other firms) accounted for 76% of the sub-prime/Alt-A mortgages that were purchased which fueled the real estate bubble.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2012, 11:21:37 PM »

Mason-Dixon has clearly had a Republican lean in most of their state polling in recent years, but their Florida polls are gold standard.  Question them at your peril.

That being said, at ten months out from an election, well, you know...
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jfern
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« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2012, 11:35:43 PM »

MD tends too be a bit (R) friendly, let's be honest. That said, Romney having a slight lead at the moment isn't too hard to believe considering he's all over the air right now.

Yup.

At this point in 2008, the polls were even bleaker for Obama. Take a look here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=12

And the polls seem to vary widely about how much support Romney would get among Democrats: Quinnipiac says only 6%, Mason-Dixon and Suffolk say 15-17%.

I think that will change after the conventions, as more Democrats learn about reckless corporate crook and tax evader Mitt Romney and then Obama will get close to 90% of them in the end. The state will be extremely close, like in most elections.

2000 was an exception. Florida isn't really extremely close. It has a Republican lean and if anything seems to be moving in that direction. If the race is competitive I'd definitely expect Florida to go Republican (especially if it's Romney v Obama).

Even with the votes that should have been counted for Gore, Florida had a slight Republican lean in 2000 compared to nationwide.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #10 on: January 30, 2012, 04:35:12 AM »

MD tends too be a bit (R) friendly, let's be honest. That said, Romney having a slight lead at the moment isn't too hard to believe considering he's all over the air right now.

Yup.

At this point in 2008, the polls were even bleaker for Obama. Take a look here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=12

And the polls seem to vary widely about how much support Romney would get among Democrats: Quinnipiac says only 6%, Mason-Dixon and Suffolk say 15-17%.

I think that will change after the conventions, as more Democrats learn about reckless corporate crook and tax evader Mitt Romney and then Obama will get close to 90% of them in the end. The state will be extremely close, like in most elections.

2000 was an exception. Florida isn't really extremely close. It has a Republican lean and if anything seems to be moving in that direction. If the race is competitive I'd definitely expect Florida to go Republican (especially if it's Romney v Obama).

It depends if the "trend" towards the Republicans continues in the coming election. If Obama wins by about 5% nationally, FL could still be extremely close with a slight Obama win. I would say that if Obama wins by 3 nationally, it could start tipping to Mitt Romney. But there are too many variables leading up to the election, that could change the "swings" and "trends".

I pretty much always talk in terms of 50-50 race though. Of course any state can be close if the national vote is enough of a landslide. Tongue
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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: January 30, 2012, 09:59:09 AM »

Florida will be an Arizona/Missouri-esque lean R state in 2016, officially. It already is there now; just nobody believes it.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: January 30, 2012, 12:14:30 PM »

Florida will be an Arizona/Missouri-esque lean R state in 2016, officially. It already is there now; just nobody believes it.

Florida is "Lean R".  It split on Bill Clinton between 1992 and 1996 when Bill Clinton won 100 more electoral votes than he needed. It did decide 2000 and went clearly for Dubya in 2004. It was more R than the US as a whole in 2008 even if Barack Obama won it; it was much more R than the states closest to the national average (New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia).

President Obama does not win Florida state in a 50-50 election. 51-49? Maybe. He could win Ohio or perhaps Virginia in a 50-50 election, but definitely not Florida (or Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, or North Carolina). If he wins Florida by 5% he is probably picking up the sorts of voters who went for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 that the Democrats have never won since 1996 and is likely picking off either 450 or so electoral votes with about 56% of the popular vote. But that's not an interesting election, at least for the Presidency.

 
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #13 on: January 30, 2012, 12:49:41 PM »

Mason-Dixon has clearly had a Republican lean in most of their state polling in recent years, but their Florida polls are gold standard.  Question them at your peril.

That being said, at ten months out from an election, well, you know...

That's what you got our hopes up with in 2010, and then this happened: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2010/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220101027009
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