GA: Survey USA: Romney & Gingrich moderately ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Georgia President by Survey USA on 2012-02-02

Summary: D: 43%, R: 51%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

All these last state polls seem to indicate a 5-8% nationwide Obama-advantage ...

[Eraserhead]

Gingrich is +6 over Obama in the general election. So he actually does slightly worse than Romney.

[krazen1211]

Quite a collapse among whites.

[Sbane]

Quite a collapse among whites.

Sure about that?

[Minnesota Mike]

Quite a collapse among whites.

According to Exit Polls Obama got only 23% of the White vote in 2008, he is right in line with that in this poll. Obama only needs around 28% of the White vote to have a chance to win (which I don't think he will get).

[old timey villain]

SUSA polls tend to be kind of off in my opinion. Georgia's polling has been so weird over the past year. Last April a PPP poll put him at a pretty even approval rating and he was competitive with some of the GOP contenders. Then Gallup puts his approval rating above Florida and North Carolina's. Yet polls like these seem to be overly pessimistic for the President. I'm guessing his true approval here is somewhere in between. Maybe it's just because Georgia's electorate is changing so rapidly it's hard to get a good cross section. who knows?

[Adam Griffin]

This isn't a bad forecast for Georgia when you take into account some of the changing factors. According to this poll, Obama's lost about 5-6% of his white support since 2008, but the overall effect of the white electorate has waned by that much at least since 2008 due to an aging white Republican voting bloc that is quickly being replaced by a younger, more progressive and more ethnically diverse electorate.

I've consistently said that Obama's floor in Georgia in 2012 is 46% assuming that there isn't a complete collapse of AA turnout here in 2012. That's against Romney. If the nominee is Newt, I'd expect that floor to move up, even with it being Newt's "home state". He'll get as big of a home state advantage here as Al Gore got in TN in 2000.