The Great Brazil Topic

[jaichind]

When voting started in theory only 504 out of 513 Members of Congress were present.  Looking at the numbers so far a bunch of those 9 must have showed up since we only have 2 absences.

[Paleobrazilian]

Wait, it seems PT only has 60 members in the Congress now.  I recall they won 70 seats in the 2014 elections.  What happen to the other 10?  Did they defect to another party?

Yes. PT has lost about 10 Congressmen and hundreds of Mayors around the country over the last months.

[Paleobrazilian]

When voting started in theory only 504 out of 513 Members of Congress were present.  Looking at the numbers so far a bunch of those 9 must have showed up since we only have 2 absences.

Many who didn't register their presence earlier were PT Congressmen who were trying to pretend the turnout was lower than it trully was.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Okay, let's just pretend this is American style-- when the lower house votes against you, you're impeached.

President Benjamin Wade would beg to differ.

[jaichind]

365-135-7-2   Almost done

[Vega]

I really do wonder where Deputy Walter Ihoshi went, he's not on the list of any of the websites, yet I know he is still in office.

[DanPrazeres]

Maybe the PT will turn around and stab Acting President Temer in the back and vote to impeach him.

They are already asking it since last week

[Paleobrazilian]

367-137-7-2 is the final tally. The opposition had guessed they'd have 366 votes yesterday, so they knew perfectly the support they had.

[jaichind]

All done

367-137-7-2

So impeachment had 25 votes to spare

[ag]

Not good.

I think Dilma is horribly incompetent and should not have been elected. But incompetence should not be grounds for impeachment. This is going to hurt Brazilian presidency long term.

[Vega]

Not good.

I think Dilma is horribly incompetent and should not have been elected. But incompetence should not be grounds for impeachment. This is going to hurt Brazilian presidency long term.

2/3rds majority makes it hard for Impeachment to be completely baseless. I don't think that this will become a trend if there isn't cause for it.

[Paleobrazilian]

Cunha will formally communicate the Senate of tonight's decision tomorrow. Then Senate President Renan Calheiros (PMDB/AL) will start proceedings on the Senate, ordering the formation of a special commission. Some are afraid that Calheiros, who dislikes Temer, will try to delay this order for a few days. No matter what, it's pretty much a lock that the President of the commission will be Sen. Antonio Anastasia (PSDB/MG) and the rapporteur will be Sen. Ana Amelia Lemos (PP/RS). Both are solidly on the impeachment side so the works of the commission should be quick.

[Paleobrazilian]

Senate counts so far:

Folha: 47 x 19, 15 undeclared/undecided
Estadão: 44 x 21, 16 undeclared/undecided
O Globo: 46 x 20, 15 undeclared/undecided
Veja: 45 x 19, 17 undeclared/undecided

Under all accounts, it's highly likely that the process will be opened by the Senate, suspending Dilma for up to 180 days.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is going to hurt Brazilian presidency long term.

Damaging an already unhealthy set of democratic institutions in order to further personal political ambitions rarely works out well, yes...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2/3rds majority makes it hard for Impeachment to be completely baseless. I don't think that this will become a trend if there isn't cause for it.

All Brazilian politicians are corrupt - Dilma's VP and likely successor is by any standard clearly worse on this score than she is - which means that 'cause' can always be found. This kind of behavior can become addictive and cause serious damage to institutions.

[Seneca]

Maybe the PT will turn around and stab Acting President Temer in the back and vote to impeach him.

They are already asking it since last week

But they wouldn't have the 2/3rds majority required to pull that off, right?

[Paleobrazilian]

Maybe the PT will turn around and stab Acting President Temer in the back and vote to impeach him.

They are already asking it since last week

But they wouldn't have the 2/3rds majority required to pull that off, right?

Highly unlikely unless a smoking gun comes up.

BTW, I've heard some rumblings that the Senate will open its process against Dilma early next month. Temer travelled to São Paulo today, where he'll have meetings, probably to discuss what his cabinet will look like. His plan is to reduce the number of Ministries to around 20 (right now there are nearly 40 ministries in Brazil), but to avoid losing support from all the parties that helped him yesterday, he'd probably give them many 2nd and 3rd tier posts.

Here's what a Temer cabinet may look like if some rumors are to be believed (plus, a few guesses of mine):

Chief of Staff: Eliseu Padilha (PMDB/RS)
Government Secretary: Moreira Franco (PMDB/SP)
Finances: Henrique Meirelles (PSD/SP)
Central Bank: Ilan Goldfajn (Ind/RJ)
Planning/Budget: José Serra (PSDB/SP)
Foreign Affairs: Sergio Silva do Amaral (Ind/SP)
Defense: Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS)
Development, Industries and Foreign Commerce: Paulo Skaf (PMDB/SP)
Justice: Carlos Ayres Britto (Ind/SE)
Education: Ricardo Paes de Barros (Ind/SP)
Health: David Uip (Ind/SP)
Labor and Pensions: Paulo "Paulinho" Pereira (SD/SP)
National Integration: Geddel Vieira Lima (PMDB/BA)
Agriculture: Ronaldo Caiado (DEM/GO)

Those are the ones I'm willing to predict right now. It's probable that PSB, PP, PTB and PR will get at least one Ministry or at least a relevant 2nd tier job. I could see PR going with Transportation (a Ministry they have ruled since God knows when) and at least one of them with Communications. Perhaps Temer will split Labor and Pensions once again (those were separate Ministries until last year).

[DanPrazeres]

Here's what a Temer cabinet may look like if some rumors are to be believed (plus, a few guesses of mine):

Chief of Staff: Eliseu Padilha (PMDB/RS)
Government Secretary: Moreira Franco (PMDB/SP)
Finances: Henrique Meirelles (PSD/SP)
Central Bank: Ilan Goldfajn (Ind/RJ)
Planning/Budget: José Serra (PSDB/SP)
Foreign Affairs: Sergio Silva do Amaral (Ind/SP)
Defense: Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS)
Development, Industries and Foreign Commerce: Paulo Skaf (PMDB/SP)
Justice: Carlos Ayres Britto (Ind/SE)
Education: Ricardo Paes de Barros (Ind/SP)
Health: David Uip (Ind/SP)
Labor and Pensions: Paulo "Paulinho" Pereira (SD/SP)
National Integration: Geddel Vieira Lima (PMDB/BA)
Agriculture: Ronaldo Caiado (DEM/GO)

It would work well for the Republic of São Paulo :lol: . But for the congress it won't last 2 weeks

[jaichind]

There is talk from PT sources that they will push for a Prez election versus having Temer installed.  It seems to me this is a foolish move.  With  Temer installed PT will always have the talking point of a puppet President without a real mandate.  In another election I am not even sure PT can make it into the second round (unless they run Lula) and certainly will not win the election.  Without Lula running it can see the PT candidate coming in third behind say someone like Neves and Silva.  So after such an election PT will be out of power across the board AND lose the talking point of "illegitimate president."  It could be that at the grassroots PT is falling a part and an election campaign is needed to at least keep PT united even if the election itself is beyond lost.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to sources the Senate will decide on May 11th if it'll open the impeachment process against Dilma.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

According to sources the Senate will decide on May 11th if it'll open the impeachment process against Dilma.

That's a long wait. Thank God I'm not a Brazillian who hates Dilma-I'd be going nuts for a month.

[Vega]

According to sources the Senate will decide on May 11th if it'll open the impeachment process against Dilma.

That's a long wait. Thank God I'm not a Brazillian who hates Dilma-I'd be going nuts for a month.

Yeah, and apparently that is considered "early".

[DanPrazeres]

According to sources the Senate will decide on May 11th if it'll open the impeachment process against Dilma.

That's a long wait. Thank God I'm not a Brazillian who hates Dilma-I'd be going nuts for a month.

Yeah, and apparently that is considered "early".

Renan (senate president) said today that the process will finish only in September (the 6 month deadline until Dilma can come back). Yes, it is a possibility that Dilma return to presidency, a weak, but it's a possibility because in 6 month everything can happen, even nothing.

[jaichind]

Rousseff’s Allied Party PDT to Oust Pro-Impeachment Members says media outlet EBC

[Famous Mortimer]

Wow, I'm surprised she still has any allied parties. Except maybe the Communists.