The Great Brazil Topic

[Simfan34]

Well that's... interesting.

So is this:
http://www.ibtimes.com/brazil-military-coup-protesters-demand-intervention-against-dilma-rousseff-amid-1881925

[Paleobrazilian]

The coolest explanation of Brazilian politics you'll ever see:

http://aheadmkt.com/guerratronos/?locale=en

[Paleobrazilian]

Petrobras has finally produced its 2014 budget. It lost over 50 billion reais (about 17 billion dollars) due to corruption and impairment.

And this is still a conservative estimation, as there's a lot on the corruption scandal to be uncovered. Plus, Petrobras' debt was probably underestimated as in the third trimester of 2014 the dollar was trading at around 2,60 BRL. It's now at 3,00.

[Paleobrazilian]

It's been 2 months for now, so I guess we deserve an update on what's been going on in Brazil.

For Dilma, it seems as if she's living a slow motion, never ending train wreck. She has faced all sorts of trouble trying to pass austerity measures. She has succeeded with some of them, but some of them are still stuck in Congress. Not only she faced stiff opposition from the opposition parties, she had trouble dealing with a coalition that's getting more unstable each passing day, and had even more trouble trying to sell austerity to her own party. Among voters, there's a widespread belief that the government spent too much and that now the population (specially the poorest) will be punished for it - and this feeling is absolutely correct.

Meanwhile, the Petrobras scandal grows bigger by the day. Yesterday the feds arrested Marcelo Odebrecht, one of the most powerful businessmen from Brazil, the CEO of Brazil's construction giant Odebrecht. Mr. Odebrecht is a personal friend of Lula who has taken Lula for tours around the World promoting Odebrecht's services. Lula strongly fears he'll be the next one to be arrested, as many believe Mr. Odebrecht is unafraid to tell the feds everything he knows. Lula has also privately berated Dilma for not doing enough to protect his image and his electability.

To make things worse for Dilma, it's now widely believed the government faked a budget surplus during Dilma's first term. The issue is now being discussed by Brazil's Court of Audit and Dilma has 30 days to defend herself against the suspicious of wrongdoing. If the Court of Audit rules that Dilma incurred in a violation of Brazil's fiscal responsibility law, her 2014 budget will probably be rejected, giving the opposition a big opening to try to impeach her.

According to today's Datafolha, Dilma's approval ratings are at 10%, while 65% of the voters now disapprove her. Those were Collor's ratings before he was impeached.

[jaichind]

My understanding is that the situation of Petrobras while not great, is a bit better than a few months ago looking at the CDS rates for Petrobras.  It seems that Petrobras will survive on the long run as a viable corporation despite all these scandals. 

The economic situation for Brazil in 2015 is pretty bad, but we all knew that months ago.  The bad news for Dilma is that 2016 is projected to bring a very weak recovery with still elevated inflation.

[Paleobrazilian]

Datafolha has conducted a presidential poll that shows Aecio up 10 against Lula. Aecio should pray for an impeachment.

The numbers for Alckmin also look good for someone who's been away from the national radar for the last 9 years. He'd be a strong candidate for 2018 with all the money and TV time he'd have.

As for Lula, I think this is his worst showing in a poll since the 90's. How the mighty have fallen...

[buritobr]

No surprise that Dilma's approval rate is very low. It is the economy, stupid. The Petrobras scandal has some influence, but not so much. Lula's approval rate never fell bellow 25% in 2005.
No surprise that Lula has low share of voters who still want to vote for him. He created Dilma and everybody knows.

But Aécio Neves is not doing well. Unlike other losing presidential candidates, who become termless politicians, Aécio is still a senator, since he was elected in 2010. So, he didn't leave the media. His speeches in the senate are commented in the mass media. Every post on his page in Facebook becomes news in the G1, the most important news web site.

Considering blank, nulified votes and abstentions, Aécio Neves had 24.4% of the vote in the first round in 2014 and 35.7% in the second round. This poll shows he has 35%. Not much more than the people who already voted for him last year.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to leaked info Dilma's 2014 campaign got 7,5 million reais of laundered money. If this is indeed true, her days as President and Temer's as Vice President are quite possibly over, with political turmoil coming next.

The same fears are now scaring Fernando Pimentel (PT), who was elected as Governor of Minas Gerais last year. In his case, there's already a formal investigation involving him, with tons of evidence that he used dirty money to be elected Governor last year. I don't think he'll survive for long. His fall would also knock down one of the few alternatives the PT have in case Lula goes down before 2018.

Oh, and yesterday the government lost yet another important vote in the Chamber.

[Simfan34]

Has the Army made any noises recently? Is Temer going down too? If so then there's no need for anything exciting.

[Paleobrazilian]

Has the Army made any noises recently? Is Temer going down too? If so then there's no need for anything exciting.

The military won't do anything whatsoever. We're not in the 60's anymore.

If the Supreme Electoral Tribunal rules that Dilma's campaign was funded with illegal money, her election  (and Temer's election by default) would be declared illegal and a new President and a new Vice President would have to be elected. If this happens before December 31st 2016 a new general election would be called to elect a stopgap President who'd serve until 2018. If this happens after December 31st 2016 the Congress would elect the stopgap President.

[Paleobrazilian]

Dilma's ratings have oficially hit the single digits. According to IBOPE, her approval has reached 9%. Yes, nine percent.

[Paleobrazilian]

Solid evidence that Dilma's campaign was financed with illegal money has leaked. There's a strong chance the electoral justice will declare her candidacy null, immediately removing her (and Michel Temer) from office and triggering a new election. And even if this doesn't happen, with more and more people telling all they know to the feds, she may well be impeached by the Congress. In fact, many on the PMDB now want to pull the plug on the government ASAP.

Her prospects of lasting until 2018 as the President of Brazil are looking rather gloomy. Some are already wondering whether she would be succeeded by Michel Temer (the impeachment scenario) or by Eduardo Cunha + new election (the electoral justice scenario). Temer threatened to abandon his function of political articulation with Congress, showing Dilma he's unafraid of going rogue. Cunha, meanwhile, has put the Chamber of Deputies on its knees, and if he feels Dilma is truly vulnerable to impeachment proceedings, I wouldn't be surprised if he decides to put an impeachment request for voting - and with his tight lock to the Chamber, there's a strong chance this motion would pass, sending the matter to the Senate. In fact, Cunha is clearly trying to build his presidential credentials with a stark social conservative, populist agenda, so if Dilma and Temer are removed from office, he'd not only be the automatic replacement for 90 days, he'd also be a very strong name for the stopgap election.

Then again, it's widely believed that Cunha will also be dragged into the corruption quagmire.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wow. This has really been a remarkably quick fall from grace for Dilma.

Will Silva come back in a new election scenario? Would Lula attempt to grab the PT label, or would it just be too risky?

[Paleobrazilian]

Wow. This has really been a remarkably quick fall from grace for Dilma.

Will Silva come back in a new election scenario? Would Lula attempt to grab the PT label, or would it just be too risky?

He definitely wants to run for President again, but his ratings have dropped sharply over the last few months. Does he want to risk his legacy and his electoral history?

Plus, he could well be in jail by the time the next election happen. That's his biggest fear right now. There's mounting evidence against him. He could well end up as the Brazilian version of José Sócrates.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to numerous sources, the PMDB and the PSDB have already started talks on how they'll remove Dilma. This would be pretty much the second coming of 1992.

[Lumine]

And I complain the current situation in Chile is a bad one... I'm actually shocked to see Dilma's goverment fell apart and reached this kind of situation so quickly.

[Paleobrazilian]

PSDB held their 12th national convention today. Many tough speeches against the government, including one from Geraldo Alckmin, who had opted to take a more neutral stance until today. He's clearly starting to take an opposition stance as he tries to state his case for 2018.

Meanwhile, most of the speeches also showed the party is confident that Dilma and Temer will be taken down by the electoral courts and that a stopgap election will happen pretty soon. We'll see.

[buritobr]

On August 16th, there were demonstrations in many Brazilian cities for the impeachment of president Dilma Rousseff. According to estimation made by the police, there were 150k demonstrators in São Paulo and 10k demonstrators in Rio de Janeiro. These were the big demonstrations. They were organized by right-wing groups. Some far-right demonstrations showed support for a military coup d'stat. Aécio Neves went to the demonstration in Belo Horizonte and José Serra went to the demonstration in São Paulo.
Today, there were demonstrations in many Brazilian cities against the impeachment. These demonstration were organized by left-wing parties, CUT (the biggest association of labor unions), UNE (national union of students, led by the Communist Party) and organizations for homeless and landless people. These demonstrations were against not only the right-wing opposition who wants the impeachment, but they were also against the conservative president of the House of Representatives Eduardo Cunha and the conservative ministers of Dilma administration, including the Minister of Finance Joaquim Levy. These demonstrations were not pro-government. They were against impeachment and against the right-wing opposition. Even members of the PSOL, the left-wing opposition party, participated.

It is very easy to see the difference of the demonstrations. Most of the right-wing protesters wear yellow T-shirts. Almost all of them are white and belong to the middle/upper class. Even in Salvador, city where >70% of the population is black, almost all of the pro-impeachment protesters were white.
Most of the left-wing protesters wear red T-shirts. There are many black and white, poor and middle class people among them.

Today, the Public Prosecutor accused Eduardo Cunha of participating in the Petrobras corruption scandal too. He was an ally of the Workers Party until 2010. This is not good news for the right-wing opposition, who needs him as an ally to vote for the impeachment in the House.

There is no evidence that Dilma Rousseff participated in the scandal. The most important leaders of her party participated. But according to the Constitution, only when the president commits a crime during her term, the impeachment is applicable. So, if it is based on the Petrobras scandal, the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff would violate the Constitution.

Angela Merkel visited Brazil today. I don't think that the German Chancellor believes that the impeachment of the Brazilian president will take place. If she believes so, she would have not visited Brazil.

[buritobr]

There were probably 40k demonstrators against the impeachment in São Paulo and 10k in Rio de Janeiro.

99% of the Brazilian population did not participate in neither pro nor anti impeachment demonstrations.

[Simfan34]

Middle class elite yellowshirts and populist redshirts? Talk about deja vu...

I hear Collor is also being investigated.

[buritobr]

Middle class elite yellow shirts
http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2015/08/manifestantes-protestam-contra-o-governo-em-copacabana-no-rio.html

Populist red shirts
http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2015/08/manifestantes-protestam-em-defesa-da-presidente-dilma-no-centro-do-rio.html


Yes, Collor is also under investigation. I feel like I am living in the 1990s again.

[buritobr]

In this weekend, 7 million students answered the ENEM, which is the admission test for the public universities (the Brazilian SAT)
There was a reading question which used a Simone de Beauvoir text. Because of this question, far right politicians accused the government of using this exam for "marxist indoctrination".
The far right is suffering mental disorder.

[Paleobrazilian]

Meanwhile, Lula's son office is being searched by the Federal Police right now. According to rumors, large companies paid over 1 million dollars on bribes to Lula's family so that he'd issue an executive order favorable to their business. That's just how corrupt this man was/is.

Left wingers may try to spin things as hard as they want to, but the ugly truth for them is that the huge castle of cards built by Lula is about to go down.

[Paleobrazilian]

Senator Delcidio Amaral (PT-MS) has been arrested in connection with the Petrobras scandal! He was the leader of the Government in the Senate, so this is REALLY serious.

Now the Senate will decide if whether to uphold his prison or to release him. This was the 1st time in Brazil that a Senator is arrested.

[Paleobrazilian]

Eduardo Cunha has opened impeachment proceedings against Dilma! Now the House will oficially take on the matter. A special commission will be formed and after that the whole House will decide. If a 2/3 supermajority approves it, Dilma will be provisionally removed from the presidency and the matter will be sent to the Senate for a final decision.

Dilma's goose is cooked.